Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Severe T-Storm Warning

Felt like starting a new post for it, but this one is just for quarter sized hail. The wind gusts will probably stay under severe limits with it. It's for a small area too, around Haleyville.  

5:52 PM - And NWS Nashville has just expanded the Tornado Watch up there:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 98 TO

INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT


IN TENNESSEE THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES


IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE


CHEATHAM              DAVIDSON              DICKSON              

HICKMAN               LAWRENCE              LEWIS                

MAURY                 ROBERTSON             SUMNER               

WAYNE                 WILLIAMSON            


THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ASHLAND CITY, BRENTWOOD, CENTERVILLE,

CLIFTON, COLLINWOOD, COLUMBIA, DICKSON, FRANKLIN, GALLATIN, 

GOODLETTSVILLE, HENDERSONVILLE, HOHENWALD, KINGSTON SPRINGS, 

LAWRENCEBURG, NASHVILLE, PEGRAM, SPRINGFIELD, AND WAYNESBORO.


And there's a visual on the new Tornado Watch area. 

5:55 - And this is the prime time of day for things to get active. Just got an extension of the Severe Thunderstorm Warning into Eastern Franklin and Colbert into Lawrence County, from about Phil Campbell to Town Creek. Russellville is clipped by the Western edge of the polygon. 

Then we've got a non-severe thunderstorm tracking from about Sulligent up toward Hamilton, penny-sized hail likely with it. And the severe threat with the Lawrence County storm is from quarter-sized hail, though wind gusts up to 50 mph may occur too. That wind is just under severe criteria, which is 58 mph. 

6:01 PM - And now we're down to this one warning in our immediate area, even though there are a couple other severe thunderstorms as you move further North into Tennessee. If you're in this polygon, stay inside, away from windows. The main threat is severe hail. 

6:04 - All right, now we've also got a warning for Wayne and Lawrence Counties, that storm coming up on Collinwood. This is for 60 mph wind gusts and hail the size of quarters, same as when this storm came through Lauderdale County, AL.

6:07 - Report of quarter-sized hail from Posey Field Airport from 5:51 PM CDT via public. A lot of it was nickel sized but some estimated at quarter size.


6:11 - Meanwhile out in Arkansas, a reminder that things could be a lot worse. 

6:14 - Most favorable tornado zone is around Memphis and Jonesboro over next few hours. They can keep it over there, definitely, but man . . . hate to wish that kind of weather on anybody. Like a gas station owner told me one time before an event, "I wish it go somewhere else. No, no . . . I wish it die, just die!"

6:17 - Meanwhile back at the ranch, the storm coming up on Moulton has weakened to the point the warning was cancelled. The one coming up on Waynesboro is still considered severe. 

6:35 - Another supercell coming through Jackson, TN is showing signs of trying to produce a tornado. That's out of this blog's area really, but anybody under a tornado warning polygon today/tonight needs to take it seriously. Especially as you get into Western Tennessee, the conditions really favor tornadoes. And it could save somebody's life to take shelter from one, even if it's not "confirmed" yet.

6:38 - And that storm moving out of Wayne and Lawrence Counties has weakened below severe limits. So that warning is expiring on time. We have no warnings in our immediate vicinity now. Though Wayne and Lawrence Counties do remain under the Tornado Watch until Midnight.

Those are not counties my weather radio will tone for, so I'll only post stuff for them if I happen to see it. Overall our severe weather risk around here is low tonight. But the SPC and local NWS offices are not taking any chances. They want to protect people.

6:47 - Before I log off, here's an update from the Weather Service in Nashville. They've seen hail up to the size of tennis balls with some of these storms. 

Later tonight a line of storms is expected, and some of those may be severe. 

There is a little more chance of storms becoming severe on the Tennessee side than the Alabama side tonight. 


6:50 - Looks like Arkansas drew the unlucky straw for this event so far. 

The tornado threat around here is looking pretty low, even for Southern Middle Tennessee, compared to the stuff out there today. But any severe weather threat is worth respecting. And some people don't take cover for tornado warnings. Maybe if they see stuff like this while it's still daylight, it gets the message across that you don't mess around when the atmosphere is like this. Conditions won't be nearly as bad by the time the storms get to Middle TN. But there's a saying about having a respect for the history of a day's storms. And it's true. 

On the other hand, if you get easily upset by such things, it might not be the best idea to watch play by play, all the tornado and damage videos coming from Arkansas or where those storms track later into West TN, Kentucky, or parts of Missouri. Chuck Doswell, the great meteorologist and storm chaser we lost back in January, used to call it "storm porn" when he felt like people got too fixated on all the destruction. And you really can take it too far just like anything else. The important thing is to have a reliable way to get warnings tonight and a safety plan just in case any storms were to get out of hand around here. The risk of that is low, but some risk does exist. Trust me, the tornado and damage videos will still be around tomorrow . . . and the next day . . . and a week after that . . . 

And as cool as tornado videos can be, I often dread seeing the footage of the aftermath. I mean seriously, even those wildfires they had in California a few months ago, it was tough to see all that stuff about people losing homes and having to evacuate. And it can be wise to budget your consumption of such things. The web provides a lot of unfiltered content, and sometimes people have to use wisdom as to their own filters. There's only so much of that the human mind was designed to take. And sometimes it's okay to tune out. Just take care of yourself and your loved ones, and let the rest of the world keep turning on its own. 

7:18 PM - If you know anybody in Kentucky, maybe get them to tune to this channel. John Gordon, who just retired from the National Weather Service, is going to help them cover this tornado threat apparently. And he's as good as it gets. You can trust him for sure. And it could be a long night for Kentuckians.

7:42 - It's forming into more of an MCS now as storms enter the Memphis area, but there is a zone back there in Arkansas that still strongly favors supercells, and those will still pose a significant tornado threat over at least the next few hours. Folks in West TN and up into Kentucky still want to watch any storms that can become discrete and track up that way. And the MCS will still carry some risk for damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. But the tornado threat is highest with the discrete supercells. Those amazing tornado videos you've seen coming out of mainly Arkansas were from supercells like that. 

And as you'd expect, some of the damage reports coming from Arkansas are really rough. So even as the storms form into more of clusters/lines and are not quite as dangerous as when they were just isolated, I think tonight is a night to have a healthy respect for the history of these storms. And like SPC said, we may not be totally done with supercells yet. At least not back in that zone near Memphis. 

7:49 - Nashville is giving Middle Tennessee a heads-up that a couple supercells are possible ahead of the line but that the main severe weather threat will come with the line later tonight. 

Threats will include damaging winds, large hail (up to the size of baseballs in some cases), a few tornadoes, and heavy rain/potential for flash flooding. 

7:55 - Locally we'll probably just have some gusty winds up to 40 mph. The threat of any of our storms becoming severe, even after Midnight tonight, is very low. 

I'm not too concerned about severe weather around here until Saturday. Will look at that in detail tomorrow evening. 

656 

WUUS54 KBMX 022245

SVRBMX

ALC093-133-022300-

/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0070.250402T2245Z-250402T2300Z/


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

545 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025


The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a


* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

  Northeastern Marion County in northwestern Alabama...

  Northwestern Winston County in northwestern Alabama...


* Until 600 PM CDT.


* At 545 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Haleyville,

  moving northeast at 45 mph.


  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.


  SOURCE...Radar indicated.


  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.


* Locations impacted include...

  Posey Field Airport, Needmore, Haleyville, Pebble, Upper Bear Creek

  Reservoir, and Bear Creek.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a

building.


&&


LAT...LON 3430 8748 3415 8763 3419 8775 3431 8768

TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 210DEG 40KT 3423 8764 


HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED

MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH


$$


12/Robinson

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Tornado Warning (TN)

 065  WFUS54 KOHX 032226 TOROHX TNC099-101-181-032300- /O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0047.250403T2226Z-250403T2300Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED ...