Wasn't really planning to do weather coverage on here today, but here we are. One of the supercell thunderstorms has escaped from Mississippi and made it into far Northwest Alabama. Red Bay, Cherokee, up to Gravelly Springs, be in a good safe place.
There is no rotation showing up in this storm at this point, but some damaging wind gusts are possible. And the hail is showing up as ping pong ball sized by radar. And I heard from Ryan Hall's stream that there was a report of baseball-sized hail with this storm back in MS.
4:28 PM - Note that McNairy County, TN and Alcorn and Tishomingo Counties in MS are also under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. There are numerous Tornado Warnings in more of the hot zone of this event. But I'm focusing on what we've got locally or really close to being local.
4:31 - The storm that has prompted the warning for Lauderdale and Colbert Counties in Alabama is now located over Tishomingo State Park. It is capable of hail up to the size of at least ping pong balls and also wind gusts of about 60 mph.
Here is more of the broad view. It really is a terrible setup for Northern Mississippi, Western Tennessee, much of Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, up into Kentucky and at least Southern parts of Illinois and Indiana, maybe even including Ohio later. These areas may see supercell thunderstorms capable of producing particularly significant tornado damage. Over here, we may get grazed by this event, and even that's questionable. But far Northwest Alabama is getting grazed at the moment, which is why I'm here. I happened to see it and can cover it.
4:37 - And that storm has moved now out of Franklin County and is only affecting Colbert and Lauderdale Counties. And then up to McNairy County, TN including the city of Savannah, it'd be a good idea to stay in a safe place while another severe thunderstorm nearby moves through that area.
4:48 - Here's a look at that PDS Tornado Watch over Mississippi and West Tennessee. This could end up being quite a tornado outbreak for some of those people. This has historically been a bad time of year for tornado outbreaks. And when you've got such strong instability and strong wind shear, supercell thunderstorms organizing, that highest threat zone is in for a rough evening.
Around here in North Alabama, overall our environment just doesn't favor severe weather that much. Notice this storm in Lauderdale County is not showing any signs of trying to produce a tornado. It's mainly a "hailer".
But let's take a look at some of the severe weather risk outlooks, who's in and who's out of different threat levels.
The main severe weather risk is over far Northwest Alabama, where we're seeing some activity, mainly really large hail so far.
Now as you get into Tennessee, places like Lawrenceburg, Columbia, Nashville, are under an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight.
The moderate and rare "high" risk areas are over Western Tennessee. That's where things are the most dangerous with this event.
The threat for really large hail is mainly up around Florence and through Lawrenceburg, again, up to about Nashville.
The same basic areas are outlooked for a basic 15% risk of damaging winds. The risk is marginal as you get down to places like Decatur, Huntsville, back to Hamilton.
The main tornado threat is in Western Tennessee back into Arkansas and Northern Mississippi. But some marginal tornado threat has been outlooked even down to places like Huntsville, maybe clipping places like Haleyville and Double Springs. So let's zoom in now on North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee for the tornado risk.
That's what everybody's worried about, let's be honest. On a day like this, everybody wants to know what their tornado risk is. Most people can just get inside for a hailstorm.
Things don't look quite as bad for this zone from about Lawrenceburg up to Nashville, but it's still a fairly significant tornado threat, about like this same area had Sunday night/Monday morning. When there's a 10% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point, that's certainly worth paying attention to. And when you see that hatching, that means there's a reasonable chance that a tornado would do enough damage to have to be rated E/F-2. And we had one of those in Middle Tennessee the other night. Now it's important to note, in West Tennessee, there is more concern for tornadoes that would have to be rated at least E/F-3. Middle Tennessee could still see a strong tornado within this zone, but it isn't the high-end setup that Western TN has. You might notice the trend, like as these storms slowly drift to the East and further South tonight, the severe threat lessens some. But there is still a severe weather threat. And it's worth taking seriously.
So especially if you're in that hatched area in far NW AL into TN, make sure you don't get caught in a mobile home during a tornado warning this evening or tonight. There's a better chance of a tornado getting strong enough to pick up a mobile home and toss it, or able to take the roof off a site-built house, do more damage than the average.
Then there's a slim corridor of a 5% tornado risk from about Russellville, AL up to Shelbyville, TN.
Most of us in North Alabama are either outlooked for no tornado risk at all or have the minimal 2% chance of an isolated tornado.
Places like Scottsboro, Guntersville, or Cullman are not quite included in this risk area. But places like Huntsville, Decatur, Hartselle, and Hamilton are.
These risk areas are basic guidelines. But that lets you know what the official word from the SPC is for your area. So for North Alabama into Southern Middle Tennessee, the severe weather risk is not on the higher end like it is in North MS and West TN. But any severe weather risk is worth having a healthy respect for. And the threat is a little higher from about Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, up to Columbia and Nashville, also around Florence in Alabama than it is for the rest of Southern TN and Northern AL.
Remember the basics in case you were to get a Tornado Warning tonight:
Get out of a mobile home.
Shelter in a small interior room or hallway on the lowest floor of a sturdy site-built house or other strong building. Stay well away from any windows, try to be near the center of the building (walls between you and outside), and cover your body as best you can from falling or flying debris - especially protect your head. And you should be all right even if a tornado were to come down your street.
And another thing to remember is that even on an outbreak day like today, the odds of any one spot getting hit by a tornado are relatively low. Just a little while ago, things looked really bad for Jackson, TN. But then people reported no touchdown, just some hail out of a rough thunderstorm. So even on a day like today, as bad as it is for West TN, Kentucky, Arkansas, North MS . . . like if somebody is reading from there, try to take a deep breath and just have your safety plan in place. And don't get overly worked up over this. These events can cause a lot of wear and tear on your nerves, but things don't always play out as the worst-case possible scenario. I know it's easier said than done, but I recently (in the past couple weeks or so, middle of March) had what appeared to be a strong, confirmed tornado coming at me, or at least too close for comfort. And it turned out the tornado lifted before it even entered my county. It did E/F-2 damage when it was down on the ground in Walker County. But nobody got seriously injured in that particular tornado. And I believe we were under a 30% hatched tornado risk area that day. So try to remember that even during a big outbreak, whether you get grazed by it or are in the middle of it, you want to find that balance point. Have respect for the danger, but don't let the dread of the danger overwhelm you.
5:32 PM - And while I've been just a yackin', the severe thunderstorm warning was reissued for Colbert and Lauderdale Counties, same basic areas impacted as before. We've got a similar storm affecting parts of Dickson, Hickman, Maury, and Williamson Counties in Middle TN. And then there is a tornado warning for Southern Benton, Eastern Carroll, and Southwest Henry County up that way.
5:38 - NWS Nashville is watching this area closely for severe potential the next few hours.
It is mainly a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail, lower chance of isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall is a pretty good bet though.
5:41 - And sure enough, several storms up there are going severe. They are not showing any signs of trying to produce a tornado, but like the storm in Lauderdale County (AL), showing potential for large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
ALC033-059-077-022200-
/O.NEW.KHUN.SV.W.0048.250402T2102Z-250402T2200Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
402 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025
The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Western Lauderdale County in northwestern Alabama...
Western Colbert County in northwestern Alabama...
Northwestern Franklin County in northwestern Alabama...
* Until 500 PM CDT.
* At 402 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sandy
Springs, or 9 miles west of Red Bay, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Malone, Posey Loop, Allsboro, Riverton, Wright, Oakland, Waterloo,
Red Rock, Pride Landing, and Underwood-Petersville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
&&
LAT...LON 3501 8799 3488 8764 3432 8814 3432 8817
3489 8810 3492 8816 3501 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 215DEG 38KT 3443 8831
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
$$
KTW
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