Mesoscale Discussion

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0383

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0607 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

   Valid 032307Z - 040000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

   SUMMARY...Enhanced tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours across

   portions of middle Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells is ongoing across portions of

   middle Tennessee, and both of these cells are along a synoptic

   stationary boundary draped generally east-northeast to

   west-southwest across the area. These storms are likely

   surface-based with air ahead of the boundary sufficiently unstable

   (1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis) and with strong low-level shear

   (20 kts of 0-1 km shear per regional VWPs). Additionally, the

   southern of these storms has a history of producing tornadoes and

   significant (2"+) hail. Thus, these storms have enhanced tornado

   potential over the next 1-2 hours. Surface moisture decreases to the

   east, and this may limit the eastward extent of the tornado risk

   with these storms.

   ..Supinie.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35518559 35138635 34868732 34908758 35088772 35398779

               35778790 36008769 36308706 36468627 36318581 35988547

               35518559 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN