Sunny Skies, Turning Colder Sunday, Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday Night

FORECAST:

Saturday (High 63, Low 42): Mostly sunny. Cool and breezy.

Sunday (High 52, Low 28): Sunny. Cold.

Monday (High 60, Low 31): Partly cloudy. Cold in the morning, cool in the afternoon. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Tuesday (High 70, Low 48): Warm and windy with thunderstorms likely at night - some could become severe. 

Wednesday (High 64, Low 55): Gradual clearing.

Thursday (High 55, Low 36): Sunny.

Friday (High 62, Low 38): Partly cloudy. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Sábado (Máxima 63, Mínima 42): Mayormente soleado. Fresco y ventilado.

Domingo (Máxima 52, Mínima 28): Soleado. Frío.

Lunes (Máxima 60, Mínima 31): Parcialmente nublado. Frío por la mañana, fresco por la tarde.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 48): Cálido y ventoso con probabilidad de tormentas eléctricas por la noche; algunas podrían volverse severas.

Miércoles (Máxima 64, Mínima 55): Despeje gradual.

Jueves (Máxima 55, Mínima 36): Soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 62, Mínima 38): Parcialmente nublado.

NOTES/CHATTER:

The Arab weather radio transmitter is offline until further notice. Meanwhile, the Winchester transmitter has been restored to service in a timely manner. 

Many NOAA/National Weather Service employees lost their jobs in a hurry lately, and I'm glad to hear from Wes Wyatt and Robert Aderholt that efforts will be made to preserve the fine folks we rely on locally in the NWS. A lot of prominent meteorologists have spoken up to say that we really can't do without these people; I saw statements from James Spann, Ginger Zee, Jim Cantore, and others. 

Since cans of worms are unavoidable these days, will pass along the video of the Hanceville City Council from yesterday. Glad people can talk about corruption when it is so flagrant. And it was good to hear from DA Champ Crocker and Sheriff Matt Gentry in a press conference about a week ago. It looks like there are a lot of people who want to make things better going forward, certainly a lot of citizens but also people in law enforcement. The level of corruption that was going on in Hanceville is shameful, and I'm glad it is finally being addressed. 

Anyway, it's a good time to review your severe weather safety plan. We may have some issues again Tuesday night. 

And I'm morbidly curious as to whether Joe Rogan challenged Elon Musk about his apparently reckless, abrupt approach to firing so many government workers. I'm guessing not, but I haven't watched the whole thing yet. I wish Musk and others would slow down and try to do these things the right way. Cutting out wasteful spending in the government is a great thing, at face value, but I guess it's sort of like when people in Alabama lately have had to do prescribed burns. You wouldn't want to get "happy" with it and end up torching people's homes, public buildings, or even some chicken houses while you were at it . . . especially not with egg prices already as ridiculous as they are. 

I've taken a temporary break from my egg boycott though; I did buy a carton lately. Just eating them slowly. 

On a serious note again, the Alabama Forestry Commission urges people to be careful if they have to burn anything since we haven't had significant rain since about February 15. And a few places have had wildfires lately. 

So we will need the rain Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This time of year, sometimes you get some mean storms in the mix. It looks like a typical squall line event for us at this point, but it pays to respect even a routine severe weather threat this time of year. The one death I remember from February 15 was in Georgia, where a tree fell on somebody's house. It's usually something simple like that. Think we had a few injuries in mobile homes in Alabama. You could backtrack on this blog and find the storm reports. 

John Gordon retired from the National Weather Service. He's been in charge of the Louisville, Kentucky office for quite some time now, but he was the first Meteorologist In Charge when Huntsville got a proper office in 2003, largely thanks to Bud Cramer. Gordon's last forecast discussion was a delight to read. 

DISCUSSION: 

It was a sunny, breezy day in Cullman. The High was 70, and the Low was 36. 

We have another dry cold front on the way tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

Tomorrow should be mostly sunny and breezy, High about 60-63 range, Low about 40-43 tonight.

Behind the front, Sunday looks clear and cold, High of about 50-53 degrees, Low about 27-30. 

Monday the rain should stay off to our West, just an increase in clouds here, a mix of sun and clouds, High of about 60 degrees, Low of about 30 or so. 

Tuesday and Wednesday our next storm system moves into the Mid-South and then the Southeast. We'll have to watch this one for the potential of severe weather. We're getting into March, and through April and May we'll have to watch each storm system closely, since it's the prime time of the year for severe thunderstorms around here. 

Most of the day Tuesday should stay dry, could see an isolated shower or storm somewhere, but it's not likely. Mainly just a warm and windy day, clouds on the increase, High near 70, Low in the upper 40's. 

The line of storms should come in overnight at some point, probably close to Midnight or after, in the wee dark hours of Wednesday morning. And that's what we'll have to watch for severe weather potential. 

Wednesday we might see an isolated shower hanging around, but for the most part, clouds will be gradually decreasing, and it'll stay breezy even as we cool down. It's one of those days it'll be tough to pin down a High/Low temperature, but approximately a High in the lower 60's, Low in the mid-50's. 

This continues to look like a low instability/high wind shear setup for us in North Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee. And the timing is in question. Latest run of the GFS actually shows the squall line coming in during Tuesday evening, where a lot of previous runs showed it coming in after midnight. And with the event being four days away, of course there are some details still to be ironed out. 

The areas most likely to experience a full-blown severe weather outbreak between Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be places like Memphis, much of Mississippi, much of Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana. 

By the time the storms get to Northwest Alabama and Middle Tennessee some time Tuesday night, it looks like it'll be more of a squall line, which is dangerous enough, as we saw a couple weeks ago. Damaging winds in thunderstorms are the main threat around here, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. 

After 6 AM Wednesday the severe weather threat will shift into Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. 

Thursday looks sunny as high pressure takes over the region again, High in the mid-50's and Low in the mid-30's. 

Friday we'll have a few clouds come back, but any rain will probably hold off until Saturday. Friday looks partly to mostly sunny, with a High in the lower 60's and a Low in the upper 30's. 

We'll probably see an average of about an inch of rainfall over the next seven days. Looks like we stay dry except Tuesday/Wednesday. Of course in any thunderstorms that become severe, locally heavier rain is possible. 

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