SPC Outlook for Sunday/Monday

Just passing this along. Timing continues to look most likely to be overnight between the two days for any severe thunderstorms.

 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

   ACUS48 KWNS 260904

   SPC AC 260904

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0404 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

   Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...

   Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement through Day

   6 (Monday March 31), with respect to synoptic-scale features. 

   Divergence in solutions increases thereafter, particularly with the

   strength/progression of the next trough moving across the western

   CONUS and into the Plains.  As such, no risk areas will be

   considered beyond Day 6/Monday.

   Day 4/Saturday, a couple of small-scale vorticity maxima/short-wave

   troughs are forecast to cross the central portion of the country,

   ahead of the stronger system advancing across the West.  This

   feature is forecast to reach the High Plains overnight, as a surface

   low moves across the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity.  Models continue to

   indicate that capping will remain an issue, hindering convective

   development in the warm sector ahead of the low (across the

   Kansas/Oklahoma/western Missouri/western Arkansas area) at least

   until after dark/overnight.  While some severe threat may evolve

   with storms which should be slightly elevated for the most part,

   risk does not appear sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 15% risk

   area.

   Day 5/Sunday, more substantial cyclogenesis is expected, though

   differences exist between the models in terms of timing/location of

   the developing low -- and associated cold front.  Nonetheless,

   substantial warm-sector destabilization is forecast to occur from

   Missouri/Arkansas/eastern Texas eastward across the Mississippi

   Valley during the day, and extending eastward across the

   Midwest/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  This will support scattered

   thunderstorm development, within an increasingly sheared

   environment.  By early afternoon, severe/supercell storms are

   expected, accompanied by the risk for very large hail, damaging

   winds, and a few tornadoes.  Storms should spread southeast of the

   Ohio and Mississippi Valleys overnight, accompanied by ongoing

   severe risk.

   Day 6/Monday, risk will likely have shifted to near and east of the

   Appalachians, and southward to the Gulf Coast area, as the surface

   cold front advances.  Destabilization ahead of the front will

   support continuation of severe risk given favorably strong flow

   aloft, with storms reaching/moving off the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts

   late in the period.

   ..Goss.. 03/26/2025