This is a very low risk of thunderstorms becoming severe around here Wednesday afternoon/evening/maybe night hours. It is on the other end of the spectrum from the high risk we had on Saturday.
This is the lowest risk level that can be issued. If you have to compare it to a recent event, the closest would be this past Thursday when most storms stayed under severe limits, but a few produced large enough hail or enough of a wind gust to need a warning.
There will be no detailed forecast this evening. I've got too much else on the plate that is much more important, and this gig doesn't pay anything, even though I've started regularly setting out a digital tip jar. Besides, I find the preliminary storm surveys for North Alabama fragmented and confusing for now. It may be several days before we have a clear picture of what happened with that tornadic supercell that came up through Sipsey and then parts of Cullman County, was considered a confirmed tornado at many points along its path.
And I'm thinking about changing the format of this blog to be just an occasional thing teaching meteorology as I try to study more on my own, maybe some interesting essays.
For what it's worth, a basic 15% risk of severe thunderstorms is outlooked just to our West for Sunday/Monday. So might want to keep an eye on that. It's that time of year.
But I'm taking at least a few days off trying any forecasting. I am not getting compensated for this in any way, and I've got a lot more important things to do. Trying to do this right is cutting in too much to those more important things.
SPC AC 171928
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND
WESTERN IN...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern
Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early
evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard.
...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South...
In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe
potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary
limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At
present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to
mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a
ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening
plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by
Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf
Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into
the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley.
A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of
the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on
Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by
early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in
IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal
that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat
veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few
supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible,
centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon
to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary
hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too.
Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of
the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective
development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds
should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe
potential across the TN Valley/Deep South.
..Grams.. 03/17/2025
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