Mesoscale Discussion (MS/AR/LA)

People in Northwest Alabama, be watching that supercell in Southern LeFlore County, MS, as it may eventually affect some of our counties around 2-3 AM. Also remember that supercell thunderstorms can change direction along their long tracks. But it is generally moving to the Northeast for now, which is what storms like this usually do. They can also cycle up and down a lot. 

1:51 AM (Saturday March 15) - We are about to have some issues locally.

This supercell with a history of producing a tornado is going to cross over into Northwest Alabama within the next hour. People in Marion, Lamar, Franklin, Colbert, and Lauderdale Counties need to be watching this storm closely, as its direction has changed slightly at times as it has moved across the state of Mississippi. 

Mesoscale Discussion 0187

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   1139 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Areas affected...southern Arkansas...far northern Louisiana...and

   into northern and western Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 36...38...

   Valid 150439Z - 150615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 36, 38 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado risk is evolving across portions of southern

   Arkansas, far northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of supercells moving

   eastward across Arkansas at this time, several with ongoing/strong

   circulations evident.  The southern portion of this band -- over

   southern Arkansas -- will continue moving eastward across

   northwestern portions of Tornado Watch 38.  Meanwhile farther east,

   a supercell is crossing southern Leflore County in west-central

   Mississippi, which is also exhibiting low-level rotation. 

   Meanwhile, other/weaker convection is evolving south of this storm,

   where CAMs suggest potential for an increase in severe-storm

   potential over the next couple of hours.  Given the favorable

   environment (both kinematically and thermodynamically), expect risk

   to continue across portions of WW 38 for several hours across this

   region.

   ..Goss.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33949290 34289258 34438971 34068862 33138940 32058982

               32109123 33269371 33949290