From now to Midnight there is a chance for mainly damaging wind gusts and large hail in storms in and close to the watch area. It stops just short of Cullman County, but we are close enough to keep an eye on things.
5:24 PM - Currently watching a severe thunderstorm moving toward Tishomingo, MS. It is part of a broken line and is showing supercell characteristics.
The rotation in it is broad, but still these wind velocity signatures show a good chance of damaging winds in the thunderstorm.
And the hail core is estimated to be hailstones of about 1.5 inches in diameter, about the size of ping pong balls. So folks across the Alabama border want to monitor this thing. It will likely stay at severe limits as it moves into Northwest Alabama between places like Cherokee and Red Bay over the next 30 minutes or so.
5:29 - And they have a warning now.
This warning polygon is North of Red Bay affecting places like Pleasant Site up to Barton and Cherokee, does barely clip Russellville on the Southern end. For now the track is staying South of places like Muscle Shoals and Waterloo.
At minimum people in the path need to be inside, away from windows and electrical stuff. But it's better if you're in a sturdier house than a mobile home (especially if there are trees around), down on the ground floor in a smaller space like a hallway or some room without any windows. Or if you're out driving, find a place to pull over and get inside before this overtakes you. It's just not a good idea to try to drive through this size of hail or these kinds of winds. At the risk of stating the obvious.
5:36 -
Ryan Hall sounds like he hopes this supercell thunderstorm ends up producing a tornado, but I'm enjoying his live stream.
There is a Tornado Watch in effect for much of Middle and Western TN, includes Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, and Waynesboro. It was issued earlier. Those are the counties in yellow, you can see it also includes Tupelo, MS. The pink counties are our Severe Thunderstorm Watch. And that brown color is a Wind Advisory, which also went into effect apparently while I was still snoozing on a Sunday afternoon.
There was a Tornado Warning in far Western TN so let's go take a look at that.
5:40 - Actually first a note that the threat level on this Severe T'Storm Warning has been upgraded to "considerable" and the hail is estimated to get up to 2.5 inches, the size of tennis balls. So whether or not this ends up rotating enough to warrant a Tornado Warning later, I'd go ahead and take shelter if in the path. This is a dangerous storm.
Try to get into a small room on the lowest floor of a sturdy house (rather than a mobile home), away from windows. Try for a room like a bathroom, closet, or hallway that's near the center of the house, not at the edge of the house.
Going to focus on this local storm, that Tornado Warning expired in TN anyway. This supercell thunderstorm is just getting going. It is moving into some rural areas right now, but it should hold together as it continues to move into the state of Alabama. And it'll be interesting to see if any damage reports come in. Also if the hail with the ground truth reports matches what the radar is showing. This is some really large hail.
5:47 - The National Weather Service in Memphis has also added a tag that a tornado is possible in this storm.
The storm is crossing the state line. Folks within this polygon in the path on the AL side, I'd go ahead and get into that tornado-safe place in your home, just to play this one safe. Even the damaging straight-line winds along with this much hail is going to be dangerous. And this storm could produce a tornado. It's a close call as far as that goes.
If you want to play it safe, get into a small room or hallway on the lowest floor of a sturdy house (not a mobile home), near the center of the house, away from windows - some walls between you and the outside. And cover your body in case of falling or flying debris - especially cover your head and neck.
5:52 - And I goofed above saying it was South of the Shoals for now, should have said West.
5:55 - The environment this storm is moving into doesn't really favor tornadoes much. So even though we've seen broad rotation or the storm even trying to form a hook echo at times, this looks more like a threat for really large hail and damaging straight-line winds. But I'd still play it safe and take shelter for this storm.
5:58 - Golfball-sized hail was confirmed with this storm from when it passed near Tishomingo, MS.
6:04 PM - And we have a new severe thunderstorm warning for Lauderdale County.
This is why I don't make new posts for every new warning these days, especially on a marginal-risk setup day like today's. A lot of times we get multiple warning polygons affecting the same basic areas. And there's no point in clogging things up with tons and tons of new posts for warnings that cover basically the same ground. In some ways the polygon-based warnings have improved things. But there are times I miss the days when warnings were county-based. Just have to adjust how to communicate them . . .
6:08 - Taking the wide view, there are multiple severe thunderstorm warnings, including the cities of Nashville and Tupelo.
Ryan Hall continues to sound disappointed that these are not producing tornadoes, unless that's just my imagination.
Seriously though, this is why National Weather Service personnel are essential. They can look at the same radar as a "weathertainment" YouTuber and see many more reasons to either issue a tornado warning or to hold off and issue a severe thunderstorm warning on a storm like this. Even when an amateur meteorologist would be tempted to jump the gun looking at the tendencies toward rotation in the storm.
6:14 - Here's a local radar update.
Places like Lexington, Saint Florian, also good to stay in a good safe place.
6:18 - That southernmost storm aiming for Northern Russellville now carries an official tag from NWS Huntsville that a tornado is possible. And they maintain a considerable damage threat with this because of hail up to the size of tennis balls and 60 mph wind gusts.
So if in the path of this southern of the two storms, I'd take precautions like you would for a tornado. Including if you have some kind of safety helmet, put it on to protect your head in case of any flying or falling debris.
Got a new warning for this storm extended to the East. And I'm going to start a new post since it is a supercell and is starting to show signs of maybe trying to produce a tornado. It deserves its own post beyond the original watch.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
505 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northwest Alabama
Southeast Arkansas
Northeast Louisiana
Central Mississippi
* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large
to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter are expected to
develop and spread eastward through the evening. Damaging winds up
to 60-70 mph may also occur, especially if convection can develop
into a line. A tornado or two also appears possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Muscle Shoals AL to 30 miles east southeast of Natchez MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.
...Gleason
008
WWUS64 KHUN 232207
WCNHUN
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 61
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
ALC033-059-077-079-083-240500-
/O.NEW.KHUN.SV.A.0061.250323T2207Z-250324T0500Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
61 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
LIMESTONE
IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA
COLBERT FRANKLIN AL LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ATHENS, FLORENCE, MOULTON,
MUSCLE SHOALS, RED BAY, RUSSELLVILLE, SHEFFIELD, TOWN CREEK,
AND TUSCUMBIA.
$$
KULA
289
WWUS64 KBMX 232207
WCNBMX
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 61
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
507 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
ALC057-075-093-107-127-133-240500-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.A.0061.250323T2207Z-250324T0500Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
61 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
FAYETTE LAMAR MARION
PICKENS WALKER WINSTON
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALICEVILLE, CARROLLTON, FAYETTE,
HALEYVILLE, HAMILTON, JASPER, SULLIGENT, AND VERNON.
$$
TC
WOUS64 KWNS 232205
WOU1
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 61
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 61 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-240500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0061.250323T2205Z-250324T0500Z/
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MARION PICKENS
WALKER WINSTON
ARC003-017-240500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0061.250323T2205Z-250324T0500Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT
LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0061.250323T2205Z-250324T0500Z/
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE
RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL
MSC001-007-011-015-019-021-025-029-031-037-043-049-051-053-055-
063-065-069-077-079-083-085-087-089-097-099-101-103-105-121-123-
125-127-129-133-149-151-155-159-163-240500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0061.250323T2205Z-250324T0500Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON
FRANKLIN GRENADA HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER
LAWRENCE LEAKE LEFLORE
LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH SUNFLOWER WARREN
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...BMX...
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