FORECAST:
Sunday (High 57, Low 43): Mostly cloudy and breezy with scattered showers possible during the day. Rain showers will become more numerous in the evening and night hours.
Monday (High 65, Low 43): Mostly sunny. An isolated shower or two may linger in the morning.
Tuesday (High 72, Low 37): Sunny. Cold in the morning, mild in the afternoon.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Wednesday (High 74, Low 41): Mostly sunny.
Thursday (High 71, Low 52): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Friday (High 75, Low 53): Partly cloudy.
Saturday (High 74, Low 59): Thunderstorms likely - some possibly severe.
PRONÓSTICO:
Domingo (Máxima 57, Mínima de 43): Mayormente nublado y ventilado con posibles lluvias dispersas durante el día. Las lluvias serán más numerosas en la tarde y la noche.
Lunes (Máxima 65, Mínima 43): Mayormente soleado. Una o dos lluvias aisladas pueden persistir en la mañana.
Martes (Máxima 72, Mínima 37): Soleado. Frío en la mañana, templado en la tarde.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Miércoles (Máxima 74, Mínima 41): Mayormente soleado.
Jueves (Máxima 71, Mínima 52): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.
Viernes (Máxima 75, Mínima 53): Parcialmente nublado.
Sábado (Máxima 74, Mínima 59): Probabilidad de tormentas eléctricas, algunas posiblemente severas.
NOTES:
Here are the reports from Tuesday's damaging wind event.
There is one more physical SKYWARN class this season hosted by the National Weather Service office in Huntsville in Tuscumbia at 6 PM this coming Tuesday evening, March 11. Remember that these classes are free, and anyone with an interest in learning more about severe weather and/or public safety is strongly encouraged to attend one. The Birmingham and Nashville offices are still holding online classes as well.
Two bits of good news about the budget cuts that were looking bad for the National Weather Service: First off, one of the people in Congress I wrote left me a voicemail inviting me to call back if I had anything to add. Or technically it was someone who works in his office. So I'm very grateful that this representative is taking the issue seriously. And also, while I haven't found a coherent news report yet that goes into the details, I've seen several social media reports of some meteorologists who were fired from NOAA/NWS being rehired. While I'm not a fan of the reckless attitude, at the end of the day what I care about is that our essential NWS personnel are appreciated and are allowed to do their jobs with a reasonable level of job security. And we need to keep our data gathering and processing intact, obviously.
Daylight Savings Time starts very early tomorrow morning, where we "spring forward" one hour. So of course, any analog clocks you have that don't reset automatically will need your help. And this is a good time of year to check your NOAA Weather Radio as well as things like smoke detectors to make sure the batteries are fresh. It makes sense to change the batteries out a couple times a year, and a good way to remember that is the two times of year the time changes from Daylight back to Standard. Some people are talking about having Daylight Time all year round, but I'd rather see Standard Time all year round, if we're going to do away with the time change.
It was a sunny day overall in the Tennessee Valley with a northerly breeze. The High in Cullman was 68 after a morning Low of 48. The High in Jasper was 66 with a morning Low of 45. Haleyville had a High of 61 and Low of 54. They also dealt with more clouds today than these other sites.
Decatur saw a High of 63 and Low of 53 today. Huntsville had a High of 63 and Low of 54.
Then up on the Tennessee side, it looks like the High for Fayetteville was 59 way back in the wee hours of the morning, with a Low so far today of 54. Their temperatures have gone backwards and hovered as though they were dealing with a dreary, rainy day instead of the sunny one they've had. The observations look so odd that I wonder if this site is having an error in their system today. But I guess not, since Winchester has a similar look with a High of 63 (again early in the dark hours of the morning( and a tentative Low of 54. And then it makes more sense in Nashville since they'd had more clouds around today, and they had a High of 64 (again at the "wrong" time of day) and tenatively 47 for the Low.
We do have some clouds and light rain overspreading the region here at 5:30 as we get toward sunset (at 5:50 PM CST). A lot of it is evaporating before reaching the ground though.
This weekend's forecast is turning out to be slower in timing and more complex than was expected a couple days ago. We have that cold front to our South, but it's now looking like we may get more rain tomorrow than tonight. So let's analyze it day by day. But first let's glance at the upper-air soundings data from 6 AM this morning. Now tomorrow they'll be launched at 7 AM and 7 PM since we go to CDT. They are launched at 12Z and 00Z, which is the universal time at the Prime Meridian. Sometimes it's called Greenwich Mean Time or Zulu Time.
The soundings from Birmingham and Nashville show this being a rain event without concern for any threat of severe weather, even though we're in that season now. I have a hard time getting these graphics in here. They don't show up as well when downloaded and then uploaded, and often they won't copy correctly. I hope they show up well this time, because I think for a really thorough, detailed forecast discussion, you need to show a clear diagnosis of the atmosphere before going into the computer model guidance. That's something Chuck Doswell always said, who passed away back in January, I believe.
Above I tried copying the images and pasting. Now I'll try uploading.
Hopefully one of those two will work. But you can find these for yourself on the left side of the website under "Useful Resources". I know I've got a link to upper-air/Skew-T data.
And it's looking like a cool, rainy start to the new week. So again, let's look at the details day by day.
So tomorrow, a surface Low pressure system will develop along this front down at the Gulf Coast and slowly make its way from West to East along the coastline. Even though it's well to our South, we should have enough moisture up here to support some rain.
Although it's dicey. The NAM is not showing anywhere near as much moisture for North Alabama as the GFS. And sometimes it's more reliable at this time range.
Taking into account the latest data and what was expected previously, I'm only going to forecast a 40% chance of rain for tomorrow. And it will be breezy. Bumping the rain chance up to 50% for tomorrow night. When even the NAM is showing better coverage of showers. High tomorrow should be near 57, the Low near 43.
Then Monday we might have an isolated shower or two hanging around in the morning, but overall the day should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light from the North. And the High temperature should be about 64-65, the morning Low about 42-43.
Then with High pressure in the Gulf, Tuesday will be sunny. The High temperature should be in the 70-73 range, the Low temperature in the 36-39 range.
The weather tends to be dynamic this time of year, and that High pressure system will be moving to the East on Wednesday. We will stay mostly sunny with a High in the lower 70's, Low in the lower 40's.
We'll be dealing with a weakening upper-level Low on Thursday.
The European model has a fairly similar look.
But let's look at an intermediate time overnight between Wednesday and Thursday before deciding on rain chances here in the extended period.
And I'm not showing that because it really didn't provide any more major clues. We could see overnight rain, but the probability looks low, like it'd stay isolated.
And even for the day Thursday, I'm only going to put a 30% chance of rain in there. High should be about 70 or so, Low of 50 or so. Could see some thunder in here, not expecting any issues with severe thunderstorms.
Then we get a break in the action on Friday with partly cloudy skies, a High in the mid-70's and Low in the lower 50's.
Then Saturday we have a strong cold front coming our way with potential for heavy rainfall and some storms. Maybe I'm just paying close attention to this because it is the Ides of March, which is also my cat Salem's birthday; he'll be two. Stormy turned four on Valentine's Day. When I don't know their birthdays, I just give them one that's easy to remember. Really though, while I wasn't a fan of the social media hype 10 or more days in advance, it is noteworthy that the GFS is showing a secondary surface Low forming near the MS/AL state line as this system comes in. And if that verifies, it could enhance our chances of seeing severe thunderstorms around here. Where if the only Low is that really deep one up in the Midwest, with us getting the trailing front so far displaced from it, our severe weather threat would likely stay marginal, on the low end.
And the ECMWF does make it look like a marginal situation for any organized severe thunderstorms, just by the synoptic setup.
Let's glance at severe weather parameters, even though this is still seven days out.
And the GFS does make this look concerning, more for Central and Southern Alabama than for North Alabama, but still some decent combination of unstable air and wind shear for North Alabama, and to some degree, Southern Middle Tennessee. So let's look at a forecast sounding.
This is where the EHI is at a value of 2.6, which is fairly significant usually. This is a forecast sounding from down around Smith Lake, where Cullman, Walker, and Winston Counties meet.
And you're balancing several factors when seeing if the right ingredients come together for organized severe weather. This is a strong cold front, and the GFS thinks a secondary surface Low will form roughly over Eastern Mississippi. So we'd have a good source of lift for storms. Also if there is a Low in that position, we'd likely have good wind shear values.
But this is the computer model using complex equations to try to determine exactly what the wind shear values will be at this point in the future at this location, and if we have enough unstable air to fuel storms. In the last two severe weather events we've had, we had a noticeable lack of unstable air but way more than enough wind shear. And you can remember how those went.
This is showing moderately unstable air, surface CAPE of 900 or so j/kg, Lifted Index of -4. Really strong bulk shear values of 60-80 knots. Helicity values (the kind of wind shear we watch for tornado development) over 600 m^2/s^2 at 3 kilometers (which is very high) and over 300 units down at the lowest kilometer. Frankly, this once again looks more like a setup you'd see in the cool season than in the Spring. The wind shear usually is not this strong. And if it combines with even this moderately unstable air and we've got a secondary Low pressure system this close by, this could be an organized severe weather setup. Notice also there is a capping inversion showing up as you go up in the atmosphere. It is just above the 850 millibar line, where the temperature line curves to the right. If we really get a temperature of 77 and dewpoint of 60 and realize this unstable air, then this inversion layer of warm air could be overcome. Typically when that happens, the energy builds up under a "cap" for part of the day, then when the capping inversion erodes, storms really break out.
So if this verifies, we'll be looking at potential for organized severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and at least isolated tornadoes. The Significant Tornado Parameter value is about 1-2 here, and the overall look of this strikes me as a setup that is riding that line between being a general isolated tornado threat (like we had in the middle of February along with the damaging winds) and being a more significant tornado threat.
This will probably be more of a really organized severe weather threat for the Midwest. But especially if we get that secondary surface Low the GFS is showing, the threat could also be fairly substantial for the Mid-South and the Southeast, which would include the Tennessee Valley (North Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee). And it's definitely something to watch. There's no need to get overly worked up about it, but I would keep an eye on how things trend through this week, the latest forecasts. It could look worse as we get closer to the event, or it could start to look less threatening. But I do think we'll have at least a marginal threat for severe weather with this along with some heavy rainfall. And this could be more organized than the past two severe weather threats we've seen this year. Even a low-end severe weather threat, like the past two events, is worth respecting. And this one could be more organized and/or significant. It's too soon to make that call, just looking at what clues we have.
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Not as much of the ECMWF stuff is available in the public domain, but I do pay a lot of attention to its forecasts for dewpoints. And it's showing them getting up into the 60's by 1 PM CDT next Saturday. So this shows unstable air. I don't think there is any doubt we'll have the lifting mechanism and strong wind shear in place. So if we get even this low-to-moderate instability in the air, especially if there's a capping inversion that breaks as we go into the afternoon, this is a setup for organized severe weather.
On the other hand, the new "AI" version of the European model that did so well with some hurricanes last summer is showing a more modest scenario of dewpoints trying to get into the danger zone but struggling to do so around here.
Now for Central into South Alabama, this looks very threatening, like if you get down to Tuscaloosa County and points South of there. For about the Southern third of Alabama, this model guidance hints at potential for significant severe weather problems. But I'm forecasting for North Alabama and keeping folks in Southern Middle Tennessee in mind as well. And the situation is not so clear-cut up here. Plus we're still seven days away from the event, so it's really not clear-cut whether we can rely on this model guidance. It only gives us clues.
...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range
guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance
generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough
ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period.
This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface
cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of
the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered
roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat).
Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key
features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe
probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed
in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South
into the Midwest.
..Leitman.. 03/08/2025
And this text is an excerpt from the latest SPC discussion. They are expecting to have to issue severe weather outlooks that include at least part of our region, but because of the model discrepancies like I've been showing, the predictability is too low to even put a 15% risk area on the map anywhere. Or it was early this morning. Tomorrow morning they'll decide whether to outline any areas or hold off another day. They really jumped on our last setup for March 4 several days in advance, and then as we got close to the event, things just really fizzled down so that it wasn't all that bad compared to what a lot of people thought it would be. And it's a delicate balancing act, wanting people to show about a severe weather threat days in advance, but also not wanting to overhype things so that people quit paying attention when an event comes along that is more organized and serious.
This does look potentially significant for at least the Midwest. The guidance is too messy to determine our risk level in the TN Valley right now. I'd just be aware that severe weather is possible on Saturday and have your safety plan in place just in case you need it. This time of year, sometimes it's better to err on the side of caution.
Rainfall totals may average 2-3 inches for this forecast period, and we will have to monitor Saturday's system for flash flooding potential as well as any severe thunderstorm threat we have from it.
The National Weather Service in Huntsville has already been calling attention to this.
And it looks like for everything I've said here, I forgot to give the basic forecast for Saturday. Thunderstorms are likely Saturday, and I'm going to go ahead and mention "possibly severe" even though there is no Storm Prediction Center outlook yet. There probably will be tomorrow or Monday, at least for the Midwest but probably including some of the Southern states too. Looks like a High in the 70's and Low in the upper 50's or near 60. Looking at the full range of NBM products, the High Saturday could be anywhere from the lower to mid-70's. So that supports the idea of getting some moderately unstable air in place to go with the wind shear and source of lift to support severe storms.
For tonight I think the rain will stay widely scattered, in case I didn't mention that before. Tomorrow the rain will increase in coverage as we get into the evening and night hours. But it'll start out scattered in the morning. Not concerned with severe weather at all for this system except down around the Gulf Coast, and even there, the threat for a severe thunderstorm is marginal. No such worries up here in North Alabama, just expecting cool rain.
