That Weather Blog: Temperatures Becoming More Seasonable Again, Not Much Chance of Rain in the Cards

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 50, Low 23): Partly to mostly sunny. Staying cold.

Monday (High 60, Low 29): Sunny. Seasonably cold.

Tuesday (High 68, Low 36): Sunny. Cold in the morning, mild in the afternoon.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 70, Low 41): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 59, Low 45): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers.

Friday (High 61, Low 34): Sunny.

Saturday (High 67, Low 39): Sunny.

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 50, Mínima 23): Parcialmente soleado. Frío.

Lunes (Máxima 60, Mínima 29): Soleado. Frío estacional.

Martes (Máxima 68, Mínima 36): Soleado. Frío por la mañana, templado por la tarde.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 70, Mínima 41): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 59, Mínima 45): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Viernes (Máxima 61, Mínima 34): Soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 67, Mínima 39): Soleado.

NOTES:

Here is a look at the damaging thunderstorm winds and tornadoes of Saturday February 15.

And here is a look at the snowfall from this past Tuesday night and Wednesday, February 18-19.

The National Weather Service in Huntsville is holding a few more physical SKYWARN classes as we head into this year's main severe weather season. The National Weather Service offices in Birmingham and Nashville are holding online SKYWARN classes as well.

The latest episode of Weatherbrains featured a lot of intense discussion among (mainly) Troy Kimmel, Kim Klockow-McClain, and Bill Murray about how government budget cuts may impact the National Weather Service. I was glad to hear people talking openly about it and comparing it to things the NWS has gone through in the past.

DISCUSSION:

We ended up with a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley, but for many of us, it took until well into the afternoon. Much of the morning and midday, and even early afternoon for some spots, was overcast. From this we learn that even forecasts that seem so simple can bust every once in a while. Anyway, the High in Cullman was only 45 thanks to the extra cloud cover, after a morning Low of 21. Jasper also saw a High of 45, Low of 23. Haleyville had a High of 43, Low of 20.

Elsewhere around the area, Fort Payne saw a High of 45 after a morning Low of 19 degrees. Decatur had a High of 44 and Low of 21. Huntsville had a High of 43 and Low of 24. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 46 after a Low of 24. Tupelo saw a High of 47 and Low of 24 degrees. Memphis had a High of 44 and Low of 25. And Nashville saw a High of 44 today, Low of 20.

So if my memory serves my correctly, the temperature forecasts from yesterday busted for basically everybody around the region today. And so did the forecast for sunny skies. We had more clouds hanging around.

Those clouds were associated with an upper-level trough that is now over the Carolinas. We are now under strong high pressure in the Southeast/TN Valley and are going to have really good radiational cooling tonight.

We actually have another trough around Louisiana, and a surface wave from the Gulf (or should I say GUFF?) will be moving through parts of the Southeast as early as tomorrow.

But it looks like the rain stays South of the TN Valley this time, especially per the NAM guidance, usually more reliable at this time range.

So we'll see partly to mostly sunny skies overall, clouds may increase in evening and night hours though, not expecting any rain around here. High should be about 50 or 51, Low near 23.

Then as that feature passes us by, Monday looks sunny with a High near 60, Low near 30.

Temperatures will continue to moderate on Tuesday under sunny skies, High in the upper 60's and Low in the mid-to-upper-30's.

On Wednesday we'll deal with a trailing cold front from a low pressure system centered way up around the Great Lakes. During the day Wednesday will stay dry though, mostly sunny skies, a High near 70 and a Low of about 40 or so.

Most of any rain we get from this system may well come Wednesday night, so a lot of people may sleep through it and not notice. Probably will not see enough unstable air to support thunderstorms either.

Will keep a 20% chance of rain in for Thursday under partly to mostly sunny skies, High of about 60 or at least upper 50's, Low in the mid-40's.

Friday looks sunny with a High near 60, Low in mid-30's, then Saturday looks like a High in the mid-to-upper-60's, Low near 40, high pressure staying in place over the region and skies staying sunny.