Staying Cool with Plenty of Sunshine Until Middle of Next Week

FORECAST:

Thursday (High 63, Low 48): Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy.

Friday (High 65, Low 37): Sunny. Cool.

Saturday (High 64, Low 42): Mostly sunny. Cool.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday (High 52, Low 30): Sunny.

Monday (High 60, Low 31): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 70, Low 46): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday (High 69, Low 56): Thunderstorms likely. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Jueves (Máxima 63, Mínima 48): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Ventoso.

Viernes (Máxima 65, Mínima 37): Soleado. Fresco.

Sábado (Máxima 64, Mínima 42): Mayormente soleado. Fresco.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Domingo (Máxima 52, Mínima 30): Soleado.

Lunes (Máxima 60, Mínima 31): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 46): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Máxima 69, Mínima 56): Probabilidad de tormentas eléctricas.

NOTES/CHATTER:

Major kudos to James Spann for telling the truth and using his public influence to emphasize how much we need to keep our local National Weather Service offices. There was a great discussion of this about a week ago on his Weatherbrains podcast, with Troy Kimmel doing most of the soapboxing there. But I really appreciated what Troy had to say. 

In the show notes of this week's podcast, Roger Edwards shared a link to an old talk with Alan Moller, in which he provided an excellent answer to the question people are posing all these years later: Why not let "AI" (Artificial Intelligence) take over doing the work of human forecasters? Doing that would be a disaster, to say the least. It's all we can do to sort out the computer guidance as things stand right now. They're really good, but they can be so wrong for so many reasons that only real people can figure out. And sometimes we don't even figure it out until after a forecast busts, reviewing the event and why a forecast went wrong. 

Another interesting link was shared by Kim Klockow-McClain, about how the Trump administration has apparently given permission for government employees to ignore Elon Musk's e-mail asking basically what they contributed during the past week. This got my attention because I know a government worker personally who was advised by a supervisor to ignore that e-mail. 

These are such boring times . . . when's the action ever going to pick up again? 

If you'd like to review severe weather safety and how to know what to look for this season, please consider taking a SKYWARN class. A lot of people don't realize these are free. One of the many valuable things our local NWS offices do for us. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

At 4 PM skies are sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 75, or 75.2 if you're a nitpicker. The dewpoint is 39.2, or just 39 if you like to round to the nearest whole number. That makes the relative humidity 27%. Winds are out of the Southwest at 12 miles per hour with higher gusts up to 21 mph. The pressure is 29.93 inches and falling slowly. 

It looks like our High today was 77, even warmer than forecast models were showing a few days ago, and this morning's Low was 39, with really dry air allowing for great radiational cooling overnight. 

We have a cold front coming at us tonight, and it's already producing clouds in Middle Tennessee and Northern Mississippi. But the showers associated with this are widely scattered and light, mainly across Kentucky, Southern Missouri, Arkansas, even back into Oklahoma. 

If we get any rain from this system, it should be isolated and light. Eastern Tennessee may get a wintry mix from this front as it passes through the mountains there. 

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with a High near 63, Low tonight near 48. 

Friday looks sunny as high pressure takes back over, High near 65, Low near 37. It'll still be breezy tomorrow, then Friday looks like winds calming down and turning more back to the West than the North.

Then Saturday March 1 also looks sunny with a High in the mid-60's, Low in the lower 40's. 

We actually have a dry cold front passing through on Saturday/Sunday, so may mention an increase in clouds for Saturday, not expecting any rain with this one. 

Sunday looks sunny behind the front with a High of 50 or so, Low near 30. So you know, we can still have cold snaps even after we're into March, happens many years. 

Looks mostly sunny again Monday with a High near 60, Low in the lower 30's. 

Then at the end of the forecast period, it looks like we'll have a fairly robust cold front pushing through the region. 

Tuesday looks like a High near 70, Low in upper 40's, only a minimal chance of rain during the day, but this looks like it may be an overnight rain event with potential for some storms. The rain probably starts late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning of next week. 

Wednesday again a High near 70, Low more in the mid-to-upper-50's. And rain is likely, could see storms too. And this is our primary severe weather season - March, April, and May. 

On Tuesday there is a risk for severe thunderstorm across the Mid-South, including most the state of Mississippi. For North Alabama into Southern Middle Tennessee, our risk should be more Wednesday or overnight between the two days. And for now, there is no formal risk defined by the SPC since there is not enough evidence to justify one yet. It's seven days out, and while the synoptic setup looks worth keeping an eye on in a favorable time of year, it doesn't look too imposing as far as the combination of unstable air and wind shear via the model parameters. It's seven days out, let's keep an eye on it. You can't really put too much stock in parameters from models this far in advance, only look for clues that way. I think we'll have some risk for severe thunderstorms around here late Tuesday night or Wednesday, even if it ends up being a marginal one. 

We should see an average of an inch or so of rainfall over the next week. A few isolated spots might see more like 1.5 inches of rain. And of course, if any storms become severe in a squall line or whatever, they could produce locally heavier amounts. 

Buy Me a Coffee