FORECAST:
Tuesday (High 60, Low 46): Rainy. Cool and breezy.
Wednesday (High 66, Low 50): Windy with heavy rain. A few thunderstorms are also possible and could become strong.
Thursday (High 53, Low 44): Mostly sunny. Somewhat breezy, seasonably cold.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Valentine's Day (High 60, Low 31): Sunny.
Saturday (High 69, Low 45): Rain and thunderstorms likely - some could be severe.
Sunday (High 50, Low 42): Decreasing clouds with a 20% chance of showers.
President's Day (High 44, Low 22): Sunny.
PRONÓSTICO:
Martes (Máxima 60, Mínima 46): Lluvioso. Fresco y ventoso.
Miércoles (Máxima 66, Mínima 50): Ventoso con lluvia intensa. También es posible que haya algunas tormentas eléctricas que podrían volverse fuertes.
Jueves (Máxima 53, Mínima 44): Mayormente soleado. Algo ventoso, frío estacional.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Día de San Valentín (Máxima 60, Mínima 31): Soleado.
Sábado (Máxima 69, Mínima 45): Probable lluvia y tormentas eléctricas, algunas podrían ser severas.
Domingo (Máxima 50, Mínima 42): Disminución de la nubosidad con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Día del Presidente (Máxima 44, Mínima 22): Soleado.
NOTES:
There is a physical SKYWARN class tomorrow evening 6 PM at the Gadsden Civic Center along with several online ones coming up.
The latest episode of the Weatherbrains podcast talked about the Tri-State Tornado of 1925.
It was a mostly overcast day in Cullman with breezy periods, also a few periods of light rain. The High was 50, and the Low was 37.
And our cold frontal boundary is now parked down South of Mobile, into the Gulf of America, the artist formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico, and still known that way to many folks around this pale blue dot suspended in space. I guess I'll keep joking about it as long as it amuses me . . . and as long as there are no threats to ship me off to Guantanamo Bay for still having a sense of humor.
Some of the places the front is draped across on the map would just call it THE GUFF anyway. So there we go.
At the moment we are cold again because our front has currently waffled back down to the GUFF.
This same storm system that'll bring us the heavy rain this week is also going to bring wintry weather (mainly snow, but some places will see ice) to a large chunk of the country over the next couple days, from the Rockies through the Midwest and Ohio Valley even to the Mid-Atlantic and New England, the Great Lakes region, stretching into nearby parts of Canada. I think we've probably had our share of any snow around here for the winter, last month. Most years we don't even see that.
Anyway we're definitely staying on the warm side of this front as it moves back northward tonight into tomorrow. The front and low pressure center are expected to be about to Birmingham by daybreak tomorrow.
We'll start the day at about 46 degrees and only warm to about 60 tomorrow. And it just looks like a rainy and breezy day.
On Wednesday some risk for severe thunderstorms will exist, but it'll mainly stay down in Southern Mississippi and bordering parts of Eastern Louisiana and Southwest Alabama. Up this way, our risk for any thunderstorms to develop and reach severe limits is marginal, about a 5% risk for North Alabama. And even that looks like it'll barely clip North Alabama, the better chance of anything organized staying farther down into Central and Southern parts of the state.
So Wednesday looks like a day of rain that could be heavy at times. Could see isolated thunderstorms, and we do have that minimal chance of one or two trying to reach severe limits, at least in the Southern Counties of North Alabama.
Which means counties like Cullman, Walker, Winston, Marion, Blount, Etowah, and points South have the best chance of a storm or two being strong enough to produce damaging winds or hail than most of North Alabama.
We'll see a High in the mid-60's Wednesday, Low near 50.
Then behind the front on Thursday, once it gets moving (steered by upper-level winds turning back to being from the Southwest . . . see below) . . .
Then we'll have mostly sunny skies, High in the lower 50's, Low in the lower 40's, still breezy at times. So a seasonably cold day with a breeze sometimes making it feel colder, but an end to the rain.
Then as high pressure moves across the Ohio River Valley on Friday, we'll stay sunny down here, High near 60, Low near 30.
Then a robust-looking storm system will move our way on Saturday.
And just based on the synoptic setup, we'll have to watch for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. Severe weather could try to get organized in at least part of our region.
It's still five days away, but already it looks fairly likely that storms could become severe anywhere in North Alabama or in the counties that border us in Tennessee.
Looks like a High in the upper 60's and a Low in the mid-40's. So this may be a case where our unstable air is somewhat limited and our wind shear/source of lift are strong. So this may be a setup more like we'd see in November or December than what we'd typically see as get toward March. Setups like this can be dicey for who gets the severe storms, and minor details (like we'll only see from the mesoscale models about 2-3 days ahead of time) can make a big difference in how things play out.
The rain and storms may last into Saturday night (probably starting in the afternoon), and then for Sunday, clouds should be on the decrease behind the front. Could see isolated showers lingering, probably in the morning. But when we're 5-6 days out, the timing is a rough estimate.
Confident in Monday being sunny and cold again, the High only in the mid-40's and the Low way down in the 20's again, likely lower 20's. This is a strong cold front.
So we've got a lot going on in this forecast. First the threat of heavy rain, maybe leading to at least isolated flash flooding issues over the next couple days, very low chance of a severe thunderstorm on Wednesday also. Then Saturday we could see more organized severe weather potential over a broader area. And then behind that, by Monday, we go into the freezer again.
We do have a slight risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to some localized flooding issues tomorrow and Wednesday.
And most places around the region will probably see about 3-6 inches of total rainfall this week.
If you encounter flood waters, any water that covers a road, don't try to cross it. "Turn around. Don't drown."
If you get a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, the best place to be is inside a sturdy house (rather than a mobile home), on the lowest floor, away from windows. And it's better to be in a smaller, more central room where the walls are less likely to sustain damage from winds, or even if a tree were to fall.
Remember that these are only issued when a thunderstorm is expected to produce damaging winds or large hail. Sometimes it's both.
If a storm were to produce a tornado, then it is imperative to get out of a mobile home. We had a few tornadoes in East Tennessee the other night, and the two deaths that were reported happened in mobile homes. Usually people sheltering properly in a sturdy house anchored to the ground survive even a direct hit from a tornado without any serious injury. And that often gets overlooked - that the odds are in your favor if you do the right things.
And I guess we're used to the cold this year, but for the cold coming back Sunday night/Monday morning, just make sure everybody has a way to stay warm and that no pipes are liable to burst.
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