Arab Weather Radio Transmitter Down For Now

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Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

1038 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...Arab NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Station Will Be Off The

Air Until Further Notice...

NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards transmitter WNG-642, operating on

a frequency of 162.525 MHz, will be off the air until further

notice.

You can tune to station KIH-20 at Huntsville on a frequency of

162.400 MHz, and station WWF-44 at Fort Payne, on a frequency of

162.500 MHz to get your latest weather information.

$$

Last Forecast Discussion From a Veteran NWS Worker (Louisville, KY)

Just after I finished musing about how he helped us get a National Weather Service office in Huntsville again (since 2003), I saw that John Gordon, who has long moved on to being the Meteorologist in Charge of the Louisville, Kentucky NWS office, is retiring. And he wrote his last forecast discussion today. Which I'm reposting below. It is a joy to read through if you have the weather bug in you. And he has always been a great guy. So will also post a link to his most recent appearance on the Weatherbrains podcast, which he's appeared on many times. These are depressing times for meteorology, and he is one of those people who can remind you why you originally fell in love with the science. Even this text discussion makes that clear. The NWS is full of such people who aren't as well known to the general public but who as Alabama once sang, have a spirit you can't replace with no machine. 

8:10 PM - Adding a link to "The Forgotten F-5" essay.

 708 

FXUS63 KLMK 272012

AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Louisville KY

312 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Isolated showers and low-topped thunderstorms possible in the 

   northeastern portions of the region, with gusty winds and small 

   hail possible.

*  Breezy and mild Friday, then turning chilly for the weekend. 

*  Unsettled weather Tuesday and Tuesday night with a few strong 

   thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025

Sfc temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s and low 60s this 

afternoon, with breezy westerly winds and increasing cu field. With 

the upper shortwave trough swinging across the Ohio Valley, modest 

sfc heating and cold mid-level temperatures have supported 

steepening low/mid-level lapse rates across the area. GOES satellite 

imagery shows cu agitation ongoing across northern Kentucky and 

southwestern Ohio, where a pocket of MLCAPE has developed. SPC has 

drawn a MRGL risk just to the northeast of the forecast area, which 

is where better ML instability is expected through the rest of the 

afternoon and early evening. With the General Thunder risk for our 

area, we have a slight chance for a few gusty showers and storms, 

with small hail or graupel possible given the cold mid-level temps 

and low freezing level. PoP chances are constricted to our 

northeastern quadrant of the CWA, and chances end by 00z this 

evening.

Despite the PoP chances, breezy gradient winds will remain through 

this afternoon as we mix down a 35-40kt LLJ. Wind gusts up to 30-35 

mph will continue this afternoon, but do expect winds to relax by 

this evening with the loss of heating. 

For tonight, dry weather is expected with mostly clear skycover. 

Winds will be much more relaxed, and will turn to a southerly 

component by tomorrow morning. Temperatures overnight will fall into 

the low to mid 30s. 

For tomorrow, a second shortwave will track into the upper Ohio 

Valley, and will be much more potent as a 50-55kt LLJ accompanies 

the wave. Another day of steep lapse rates will support gusty sfc 

winds, possibly reaching 40 mph. There was discussion for a Wind 

Advisory for tomorrow, but the overall best confidence for 

widespread gusty winds is just to our north. Will take this evening 

to take another look at newer data, but definitely could see the 

need for an advisory somewhere across the northern half of the CWA 

tomorrow. Temps will reach the 60s due to the SW flow, and could 

likely overachieve NBM temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025

Well...I’ve written thousands of SFDs and AFDs over 30 + years, and 

wrote them in the Air Force in Europe for 3 years, and this is my 

very last AFD. Hard to believe, so here we go...

Friday night...

Winds will be dropping significantly after sunset. Cold front drops 

through the Ohio Valley Friday night with only a wind shift and a 

few clouds to show for itself. The FROPA should occur between 02 -

05z through the CWA and be from CRW to BNA to DFW by 12z Sat. Should 

be some mid deck clouds but no ample forcing or moisture over the 

CWA (well to the Northeast). 

Saturday - Sunday... 

CAA is the name of the game with a 1026 mb Canadian cP high moving 

down into the Ohio Valley.  Saturday will be a mix of sun and clouds 

and Sunday more sunshine but temps will be in the 40-45 range 

Saturday based on the Massie Rose 1000-850 mb technique and low 

temps in 20-25 F range. Massie Rose yields highs Sunday even colder 

than NBM with the upper 30s for zeniths. 

Monday and Monday night...

Heights start rising in earnest by Monday morning as upper ridging 

builds over the central Plains, but a closed upper low will track 

eastward across the Red River Valley. The GFS is much more 

aggressive on PoPS than the ECM as the feature washes out across the 

Deep South on Monday night. My gut tells me we have too high of PoPs 

for the initial wave Monday evening...however things really change 

on Tuesday.

Tuesday...

A series of waves with decent isentropic ascent on Tuesday with 2 

windows of precip.  One is WAA with decent theta advection and 

moisture transport during the day with some elevated instability. 

The low level jet will be aiding in dew points climbing into the 40s 

during the day and to around 50 by Tue evening.  

Tuesday evening could be a significant problem with split flow and 

distinct coupled jet with polar jet from Show Me State to Finger 

Lakes of Western NY and Subtropical Jet from Lone State State to 

Crimson State.  A 543 dm low with a bit of a negative tilt in the 

ARKLATX (and a warm front too) will be move from OK to Lake Erie. A 

typical OH Valley High Shear event. The one positive for no severe 

is there is deep moisture across soundings and no llvl instability 

at this point. However, any increase in instability will be 

problematic. However, could be a significant outbreak across the 

ARKLATX, and SPC has them pegged. 

Rainfall amounts look to be in the 1 to 2 inches, with the most 

Tuesday night. Cold air will be filtering in behind the front and 

would not be surprised to see snow light snow when the upper trough 

comes through Wednesday night into Thursday.  

Editors note...the Last discussion...

In 1993 I…

Started with one model (LFM) and now we have dozens of models and 

even warn on forecast model (WoFS) 

Started broadcasting Weather Radio with 8 track tapes and now NWR is 

all automated 

Started hand plotting Skew Ts and calculating all the indices and 

now it’s all automated 

Started working Korean War radars (FPS77, WSR-57) and now we have 

Dual Pol Doppler Radars 

Started with typewriters and fax machines, and now we have fast 

computers. 

In the 70s a nerdy kid in the Finger Lakes of Western NY, was 

fascinated by lake effect snow (1977-78 had ALOT of snow). In the 

1970s I was fascinated by Super Outbreak of 74, Eastern Airlines 66 

microburst of 1975, Edmund Fitzgerald 1975, Big Thompson Flash Flood 

of 1976, Johnstown flood of 1977, 2 major blizzards in 1978, and Cat 

5 Hurricane David 1979.  

In my 20 years at Louisville, we dealt with Hurricane Ike remnants 

wind storm of 2008, the devastating Louisville flash flood of 2009, 

the Massive ice storm of 2009, Henryville IN EF4 outbreak of 2012, 

Dec 2021 Quad State Outbreak, and Feb 2025 Kentucky flooding event. 

However, the signature event that stands out to me was the Super 

Tuesday Feb 2008, with QLCS with many tornadoes at night, and long 

track supercells and surveying for over a week! 

Flew with the Air Force Hurricane Hunters WC-130 while working for 

the NWS at JAN, SGF, OHX, HUN, and LMK. From 1993 to 2007, flew some 

big hurricanes including Cat 5 Isabel and flew landfall mission on 

Katrina in 2005. 

Tried hard to move the needle in weather over 39 years including….

Changed from criteria based headlines to impact based headlines.  

Wrote several papers including Winter Weather Checklist, Severe 

Weather Checklist and The Forgotten F5 (a great read!!) 

Lead national effort to raise severe thunderstorm criteria for hail 

from 3/4” to 1” hail. 

Lead national effort to change all NWS text products from upper case 

lettering to mixed case and proper punctuation. 

Issued first NWS flash flood emergency in Louisville in Aug 2009. 

Began Meso AFDs across the WFOs...

Created the College Road Show and there have been 15 recruitment 

events at Valparaiso, Purdue, Ball State, Indiana U, WKU and U of L. 

Dozens of people are in NWS and weather enterprise because of the 

college road show. 

Started GIS across the Ohio Valley of the NWS, began aggressive 

storm survey initiative, and GIS mapping showed the world where the 

damage was etc…and saw our survey maps on TV. 

Hope you’ve enjoyed some of my AFDs forecasting terms such as Massie-

Rose temperature technique, UPS Fog Technique, Garcia method, ACCAS, 

FROPA, BINOVC, descriptive terms such as gelid, hyetal, torrid, 

herculean, and always starting the AFD with Well….

Never forget some of the Gordon’isms 

Play Offense 

Own the Short Term 

Pay it forward 

It’s not what you think or feel, we must think impact based weather 

Keeping service in weather! 

After almost 40 years... Auf Wiedersehen

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025

With the cold front now departing to our east, sfc winds are now 

primarily westerly flow this afternoon. With the primary cloud deck 

shifting to the east, VFR flight categories are expected for the 

forecast period. Winds are expected to pick up this afternoon, with 

gusts up to 25-27kts possible. Some very isolated showers and storms 

will be possible near LEX this afternoon, but expected coverage is 

not enough to warrant mention in TAF at this time. Wind gusts will 

relax by this evening with the sunset, leading to SKC and lighter 

winds for the overnight. A stronger LLJ will approach the region 

tomorrow, which will result in higher wind gusts possible tomorrow 

afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KY...None.

IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJP

LONG TERM...Gordon

AVIATION...CJP

Public Information Statement (Winchester Transmitter Back in Service)

While many of us are upset about reckless budget cuts causing the loss of many important jobs in NOAA and the National Weather Service (at least according to current news reports and what I'm hearing from several meteorologists), here is some good news locally: The Winchester transmitter across the Tennessee line has been restored to service in plenty of time for any severe thunderstorms we may see Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Major thanks and respect to our local National Weather Service in Huntsville and to Bud Cramer and John Gordon for getting us that office since 2003, also to our neighbors in Birmingham, Nashville, Memphis, Jackson, Peachtree City, Mobile, Tallahassee, and so on. I don't know where this dumpster fire is going to end up, but we appreciate the people we've got. Hope to keep as many as possible in our region. 

The truth is even if an office in Alaska is short-staffed and has to suspend radiosonde launches, that hurts the rest of us, because our computer models are going to initialize with less global (or North American) data than they normally have. We have some really smart, hard-working, caring people at the offices in our region. So they'll make the best of whatever happens. A lot of this, we have no control over. But I hope we can make enough noise to mitigate the damage to the services these people provide. And whatever happens, let's try to remind our NWS personnel that they are appreciated. Even if that's just taking a SKYWARN class before Spring is over. Those are free.  

135

NOUS44 KHUN 271809

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ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-280100-

Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

1209 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

...Winchester NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Station Is Back In

Service...

NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards transmitter WNG-554 operating on a

frequency of 162.500 MHz is back in service.

$$

RSB

Couple More Cool Days, Colder Sunday, Tuesday Night Looking Stormy

FORECAST:

Friday (High 66, Low 37): Sunny. Cool. 

Saturday (High 65, Low 43): Mostly sunny. Cool and breezy.

Sunday (High 51, Low 30): Sunny. Cold.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 57, Low 33): Partly to mostly cloudy. 

Tuesday (High 70, Low 46): Windy with increasing clouds during the day, thunderstorms likely at night - some may become severe. 

Wednesday (High 66, Low 55): Breezy with gradual clearing. 

Thursday (High 54, Low 36): Sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 66, Mínima 37): Soleado. Fresco.

Sábado (Máxima 65, Mínima 43): Mayormente soleado. Fresco y ventoso.

Domingo (Máxima 51, Mínima 30): Soleado. Frío.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Lunes (Máxima 57, Mínima 33): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado.

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 46): Ventoso con aumento de nubosidad durante el día, tormentas eléctricas probables por la noche; algunas pueden volverse severas.

Miércoles (Máxima 66, Mínima 55): Ventoso con despeje gradual.

Jueves (Máxima 54, Mínima 36): Soleado.

NOTES:

There is a SKYWARN class in Tuscumbia the evening of March 11 taught by the National Weather Service in Huntsville. There are also online classes from the Birmingham and Nashville NWS offices. 

Speaking of National Weather Service offices, a salute and thanks to James Spann for speaking up for what we all know to be true about the need to keep these offices open that serve us during times of fair and foul weather. 

Troy Kimmel and Kim Clockow-McClain discussed a lot of important points about looming budget cuts on the latest Weatherbrains show. 

By the way, I would promote other weather podcasts on here if I saw much activity on them. But the others, when I check every couple months or so, I usually don't see anything new. If you have a weather podcast I'm not paying any attention to, feel free to leave me a comment or e-mail and get my attention.

If you don't feel like taking a SKYWARN class (they are free, by the way), then if you care about staying safe in storms at all, you should probably review your tornado safety plan before we get to next Tuesday night. And keep that plan in mind through at least the month of April. Sometimes we still have issues into the month of May, varies from one year to the next. Tornadoes get everyone's attention, but sometimes we have issues from severe thunderstorms that produce large hail and damaging straight-line winds too. We sure did a couple weeks ago with widespread wind damage. 

DISCUSSION:

At 5 PM skies are sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 63. The dewpoint-temperature is 29, making the relative humidity 27%. Winds are out of the West at 8 miles per hour, with gusts up to 16 mph. As usual, it's a little breezy behind that cold front from last night. The pressure is 30.04 inches and steady. Our High today was 64, and the Low was 52 this morning. 

It is sunny and 64 degrees in Jasper. The dewpoint is 28, making the relative humidity 26%. Winds are from the Northwest at 8 mph. The pressure is 30.05 inches and rising slowly. The High was 68 today, and the Low was 39. 

Haleyville has sunny skies and 62 degrees. The dewpoint is 25 degrees, making the relative humidity 24%. Winds are Northwest at 10 mph. The pressure is 30.07 inches/994.4 millibars and steady. The High today was 64, and the Low was 51. 

Fort Payne had a High of 65 and Low of 41 today. Decatur had a High of 67 and Low of 57. Huntsville had a High of 67 and Low of 54. Muscle Shoals saw a High of 67 and a Low of 55. Tupelo saw a High of 68, Low of 53. Memphis had a High of 66 and a Low of 51. And Nashville, the Music City, had a few more clouds hanging around today, but overall mostly sunny, a High of 66 and Low of 51. 

We didn't get much rain from that front last night, and now that light rain is up in the Carolinas. 

And the upper-air balloon soundings from 6 AM this morning at both Birmingham and Nashville show that cooler, stable air moving back in behind the front. We had a warm couple of days lately ahead of the front, even though it was a dry one. And we're breezy, as we often are behind even a weaker cold front like this one. 

And we will have another dry cold front dropping through the region this weekend. 

Tomorrow looks sunny with high pressure in place, High temperature of about 66, Low tonight near 37. 

Saturday that other dry cold front moves through the region, and we'll be breezy again, staying mostly sunny, High temperature in about the 63-65 range and the Low about 42-44 range. 

Then Sunday we've got strong Northwest wind flow aloft, surface High pressure moving through the Ohio Valley. And it just looks clear and cold, High of about 50 or so, Low near 30. 

Monday looks partly to mostly cloudy but dry around here as all the best moisture looks to stay to our South, West, Northwest. But we'll start to feel the pattern shift as the high pressure moves up into New England. We'll have a Low pressure system centered out near Kansas City. The High should be in the upper 50's and the Low in the lower 30's around here. 

And this next storm system is the one everyone is really going to be watching. It may bring severe storms to the Mid-South on Tuesday, could be some organized severe weather. Around here in the Southeast and the Tennessee Valley in particular, it's a little trickier, the timing especially. But we will likely have some severe weather risk. It has the potential to be a significant severe weather event for at least parts of the Mid-South. The Tennessee Valley will probably get the leftovers, but those could be well worth respecting. Looks like we'll see a High near 70 around here, Low in the mid-to-upper-40's. Clouds will be increasing, and it looks like a windy day as well as a warm day. For now going to forecast a 50% chance of thunderstorms, thinking most of them will be at night in the form of a squall line. But we'll get to that a little later when looking at the severe weather potential in a little more detail, try to nail down the timing and specific risks. This is still 5-6 days out, so a lot of details are yet to be determined. Just watching it and seeing what we know or what looks likely . . . 

The GFS is showing the squall line approaching Northwest Alabama around Midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. And it's got the main center of Low pressure up around Chicago. 

The ECMWF is showing a similar timing and only has the Low displaced slightly farther to the South and West from the GFS. 

Thanks to our friends from Tropical Tidbits for making these and other great weather graphics freely available to the public. They mainly focus on hurricanes, but some of what they've got on their fine site is useful year-round. 

By Noon on Wednesday, both global models show the front clearing the TN Valley and moving on into Georgia. So it looks like a day of gradual clearing, isolated showers could hang around, but mainly clouds decreasing throughout the day, sort of a raw day like you'd expect behind a storm system like this, High in the 60's and Low in the 50's. 

Then Thursday looks sunny again with a High in the mid-50's and a Low in the mid-to-upper-30's. 

And we can expect an average of about an inch or so of rainfall from this system Tuesday into early Wednesday. 

Buy Me a Coffee

If you'd like to support what I'm doing here, please feel free to drop a dollar in my bucket at the link above. On to the discussion of severe thunderstorm potential for next week . . . 

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL:

As of right now, the global models are showing a squall line moving through the area between about Midnight and 3 AM in the wee hours of Wednesday morning next week. 

At the moment, it looks like it may be starved for moist, unstable air as fuel, but with impressive wind shear and of course the source of lift (the cold front). It reminds me of the system we had a couple weeks ago, except that it may get nastier for parts of Mississippi, depending on how various factors play out. 

Looking at the ECMWF, it sure looks like the main challenge for this system is getting enough instability to work with. The ECMWF also shows dewpoints strugging to get to 60 degrees in North Alabama overnight. 

The ECMWF's "AI" mode that did well with some hurricanes last year is showing even more meager instability. And if this were to verify, it could bust this severe weather threat. But then we have to keep in mind that especially 5-6 days out, global models can tend to underestimate the unstable air in early March. And it doesn't take much instability to fuel severe thunderstorms when the wind shear and lift are strong enough. This looks similar to the system we had on February 15. And it produced a lot of wind damage, even several tornadoes in the region. 

This system is still beyond the reach of the mesoscale models or convection allowing models. 

There have been other runs of the ECMWF or some of its variants that showed better instability up into our region and actually well up into Tennessee and Kentucky. But I'm not going to get too hung up on that. Just know that 5-6 days out, global models can waffle back and forth on mesoscale details like that. Overall this looks like a typical cool season setup, where we've got plenty of dynamic support for storms, plenty of wind shear, but may struggle to get a baseline of unstable air. Anywhere that does get the unstable air has a good chance of severe weather happening, sort of like a couple weeks ago. Every event is unique though. Some are just similar, and this reminds me of the one a couple weeks ago. Sometimes these setups bust, but my gut feeling is that this one won't, not completely. Likely we'll get the leftovers from a more significant event of severe weather to our West on Tuesday. 

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us for a basic 15% risk for severe weather Tuesday night - this outlook (the top graphic above) runs until 6 AM Wednesday. Note the enhanced 30% severe weather risk for Central and Western Mississippi, stretching back through Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, and even parts of East Texas. That is the most favorable zone for supercell thunderstorms to initially develop on Tuesday, also where the tornado threat is expected to be highest. Even after the storms form into a QLCS line though, this has the potential to a be a widespread event. Notice just about the whole state of Tennessee is also outlooked for a basic risk of severe weather. 

Then after 6 AM Wednesday the risk shifts into Georgia, Southeast Alabama, the Carolinas. 

Around here we'll have a risk for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning that are capable of damaging winds and also isolated tornadoes throughout North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. So be prepared for that, and have a reliable way to get alerts (not just an outdoor siren) that will wake you up if you need to wake up in time to get to a safe place. 

And let people know. March starts our main severe weather season, but a lot of people are still thinking like it's winter time. And we're about to be into the spring season, which is our prime time for severe weather in this part of the world. Sometimes we just get rain, but a lot of times, things get pretty stormy, when the right ingredients come together. Anybody who's lived here any length of time understands that. Just have to have reasonable precautions in place in case you find yourself in the path of a tornado or other really damaging storm some day. 

FOOTNOTE:

Adding this at 7:35 PM - been seeing a lot of news of firing already beginning in NOAA/the National Weather Service. Doing this is a horrible mistake. Whether it's Trump, Elon Musk, or anyone else in charge of these things, they really need to think twice. Because this is going to really hurt everybody. 

I try to give these things a few days or a week before commenting, but I've been dreading this sort of thing for a long time. And it looks like it is underway. I hope someone with some sense, who is willing to use that better sense, does something to mitigate the damage this recklessness could do to all of us. 

Public Information Statement (Winchester Transmitter Down)

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Public Information Statement

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

520 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

...Winchester NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Station Will Be Off

The Air Until Further Notice...

NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards transmitter WNG-554 operating on a

frequency of 162.525 MHz will be off the air until further notice

due to a communications line issue. Technicians have been

notified and are in the process of restoring service to the

transmitter.

You can tune to station WWF-44 at Fort Payne on a frequency of

162.500 MHz or station KIH-20 at Huntsville on a frequency of

162.400 MHz to get your latest weather information.

$$

70/DD

Staying Cool with Plenty of Sunshine Until Middle of Next Week

FORECAST:

Thursday (High 63, Low 48): Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy.

Friday (High 65, Low 37): Sunny. Cool.

Saturday (High 64, Low 42): Mostly sunny. Cool.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday (High 52, Low 30): Sunny.

Monday (High 60, Low 31): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 70, Low 46): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday (High 69, Low 56): Thunderstorms likely. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Jueves (Máxima 63, Mínima 48): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Ventoso.

Viernes (Máxima 65, Mínima 37): Soleado. Fresco.

Sábado (Máxima 64, Mínima 42): Mayormente soleado. Fresco.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Domingo (Máxima 52, Mínima 30): Soleado.

Lunes (Máxima 60, Mínima 31): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 46): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Máxima 69, Mínima 56): Probabilidad de tormentas eléctricas.

NOTES/CHATTER:

Major kudos to James Spann for telling the truth and using his public influence to emphasize how much we need to keep our local National Weather Service offices. There was a great discussion of this about a week ago on his Weatherbrains podcast, with Troy Kimmel doing most of the soapboxing there. But I really appreciated what Troy had to say. 

In the show notes of this week's podcast, Roger Edwards shared a link to an old talk with Alan Moller, in which he provided an excellent answer to the question people are posing all these years later: Why not let "AI" (Artificial Intelligence) take over doing the work of human forecasters? Doing that would be a disaster, to say the least. It's all we can do to sort out the computer guidance as things stand right now. They're really good, but they can be so wrong for so many reasons that only real people can figure out. And sometimes we don't even figure it out until after a forecast busts, reviewing the event and why a forecast went wrong. 

Another interesting link was shared by Kim Klockow-McClain, about how the Trump administration has apparently given permission for government employees to ignore Elon Musk's e-mail asking basically what they contributed during the past week. This got my attention because I know a government worker personally who was advised by a supervisor to ignore that e-mail. 

These are such boring times . . . when's the action ever going to pick up again? 

If you'd like to review severe weather safety and how to know what to look for this season, please consider taking a SKYWARN class. A lot of people don't realize these are free. One of the many valuable things our local NWS offices do for us. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

At 4 PM skies are sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 75, or 75.2 if you're a nitpicker. The dewpoint is 39.2, or just 39 if you like to round to the nearest whole number. That makes the relative humidity 27%. Winds are out of the Southwest at 12 miles per hour with higher gusts up to 21 mph. The pressure is 29.93 inches and falling slowly. 

It looks like our High today was 77, even warmer than forecast models were showing a few days ago, and this morning's Low was 39, with really dry air allowing for great radiational cooling overnight. 

We have a cold front coming at us tonight, and it's already producing clouds in Middle Tennessee and Northern Mississippi. But the showers associated with this are widely scattered and light, mainly across Kentucky, Southern Missouri, Arkansas, even back into Oklahoma. 

If we get any rain from this system, it should be isolated and light. Eastern Tennessee may get a wintry mix from this front as it passes through the mountains there. 

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with a High near 63, Low tonight near 48. 

Friday looks sunny as high pressure takes back over, High near 65, Low near 37. It'll still be breezy tomorrow, then Friday looks like winds calming down and turning more back to the West than the North.

Then Saturday March 1 also looks sunny with a High in the mid-60's, Low in the lower 40's. 

We actually have a dry cold front passing through on Saturday/Sunday, so may mention an increase in clouds for Saturday, not expecting any rain with this one. 

Sunday looks sunny behind the front with a High of 50 or so, Low near 30. So you know, we can still have cold snaps even after we're into March, happens many years. 

Looks mostly sunny again Monday with a High near 60, Low in the lower 30's. 

Then at the end of the forecast period, it looks like we'll have a fairly robust cold front pushing through the region. 

Tuesday looks like a High near 70, Low in upper 40's, only a minimal chance of rain during the day, but this looks like it may be an overnight rain event with potential for some storms. The rain probably starts late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning of next week. 

Wednesday again a High near 70, Low more in the mid-to-upper-50's. And rain is likely, could see storms too. And this is our primary severe weather season - March, April, and May. 

On Tuesday there is a risk for severe thunderstorm across the Mid-South, including most the state of Mississippi. For North Alabama into Southern Middle Tennessee, our risk should be more Wednesday or overnight between the two days. And for now, there is no formal risk defined by the SPC since there is not enough evidence to justify one yet. It's seven days out, and while the synoptic setup looks worth keeping an eye on in a favorable time of year, it doesn't look too imposing as far as the combination of unstable air and wind shear via the model parameters. It's seven days out, let's keep an eye on it. You can't really put too much stock in parameters from models this far in advance, only look for clues that way. I think we'll have some risk for severe thunderstorms around here late Tuesday night or Wednesday, even if it ends up being a marginal one. 

We should see an average of an inch or so of rainfall over the next week. A few isolated spots might see more like 1.5 inches of rain. And of course, if any storms become severe in a squall line or whatever, they could produce locally heavier amounts. 

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