Winter Storm Conditions Likely Friday

FORECAST:

Wednesday (High 38, Low 21): Mostly sunny. Breezy and cold.

Thursday (High 40, Low 18): Mostly sunny during the day, staying cold. Isolated snow showers may begin late at night, increasing in coverage going into Friday morning. 

Friday (High 33, Low 25): Snow likely, periods of freezing rain also possible. Accumulations and winter storm conditions likely, and travel impacts may be significant. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Saturday (High 34, Low 26): Decreasing clouds. 

Sunday (High 39, Low 16): Mostly sunny. 

Monday (High 41, Low 24): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 40, Low 22): Mostly sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Miércoles (Máxima 38, Mínima 21): Mayormente soleado. Ventoso y frío.

Jueves (Máxima 40, Mínima 18): Mayormente soleado durante el día, con frío. Es posible que comiencen a caer nevadas aisladas a última hora de la noche, aumentando su cobertura hasta la mañana del viernes.

Viernes (Máxima 33, Mínima 25): Probable nieve, también posibles períodos de lluvia helada. Es probable que haya acumulaciones y condiciones de tormenta invernal, y los impactos en los viajes pueden ser significativos.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Sábado (Máxima 34, Mínima 26): Disminución de la nubosidad.

Domingo (Máxima 39, Mínima 16): Mayormente soleado.

Lunes (Máxima 41, Mínima 24): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 40, Mínima 22): Mayormente soleado.

NOTES:

There was a tornado confirmed in Pickens County, a little to our Southwest, Sunday night. And the National Weather Service in Birmingham also put together a great page of all the severe weather from December 28-29. The National Weather Service in Huntsville has not put together a comprehensive page like this for North Alabama, and frankly, I don't feel like digging through all their Public Information Statements to put it together myself when we have a potential winter storm brewing for our area. Archives can wait. 

Will just note that a tornado did hit Athens that night of the 28th, and it came out of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. A Tornado Watch was also in effect beforehand, and I'm pretty sure the text of this (severe thunderstorm) warning made it clear that a tornado could quickly develop, in addition to the threat for damaging straight-line winds. So nobody should have been caught off guard by this. And fortunately did not hear of any injuries, just some damage. Property can be replaced. 

We already have a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the counties of Western Tennessee. 

So here are some tips from NOAA about staying safe in winter weather. 

DISCUSSION:

It was a mostly overcast, breezy day in the Tennessee Valley, though many of us did also see periods of sunshine. The High in Cullman was only 32 with a morning Low of 26. Wind chills have been in the upper teens or lower 20's today. Jasper saw a High of 36 and Low of 28. Haleyville had a High of 31 and Low of 25. 

Huntsville saw a High of 33 and Low of 28. Nashville had a High of 31 and Low of 28. 

Tomorrow looks mostly sunny with still a North/Northwest breeze. We'll start the day about 21-22 degrees and then only warm up to about 38-39 in the afternoon. Wind chills should stay in the 20's through the day. 

Then Thursday with high pressure moving through the region, we'll start the day near 20 degrees or even upper teens (about 17-20 range) and then warm up to about 40 degrees in the afternoon, actually plenty of sunshine. 

Some people are saying the snow will start Thursday night, but technically if it's after midnight, that's Friday morning. And that's how I'm going to count it. Looks like the snow comes in Friday even if some starts in the early morning hours. 

It does look like that Low is going to be in a very favorable position to produce a winter storm over North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. And the precipitation should start during the dark hours Friday morning. Here we are at midday, and the GFS is now showing it as all snow up here in the Northern third of Alabama up into Tennessee. 

The NAM has a messier look, where some of it along the junction of North/Central Alabama (so counties like Walker, Blount, Etowah or just South of those counties) may go through a time of freezing rain mixed in with the snow. Either way, I think it is safe to put accumulating snow (and maybe some ice for some folks) in the forecast now. 

Forecasting a High near 33, Low near 25 for Friday, snow likely, and it should accumulate for most of us. May mention a low risk of accumulating ice (freezing rain) in the forecast, will give that some more thought after finishing this discussion down here. 

I'm not sure how much I believe the possibility of a warm nose of air hampering the all-snow mode during the day Friday with this one, because it is going to start in the wee hours of the morning, and just from past experience, a setup like this, you usually get mostly snow, not a lot of freezing rain. Could see a good bit of sleet. But I'll keep in mind that it's a close call as you get more into Central Alabama, between the snow areas and the rain areas, some places may see more of an icing problem. Not sure if Walker County and such places will have that issue or if they'll basically just see snow like the rest of us up here. Either way, this will cause travel impacts. As one forecaster put it, get where you need to be by Midnight going into Friday. 

The snow should last Friday night into early Saturday morning, but by midday, it's out of here, any new flakes, looks like. We'll see gradually decreasing clouds, a High in the lower-to-mid-30's (snowpack keeping temperatures down) and a Low in the mid-to-upper-20's. 

So if you get a decent snow Friday, wouldn't expect too much melting Saturday. 

Then on Sunday, we have more opportunity for folks to recover from the roads getting snowy or icy, plenty of sunshine, we'll warm to the upper 30's or maybe even make it up to 40 in the afternoon. Morning Low should be down in the 10's though. 

Then next Monday looks mostly sunny with a High of 40 or so, Low in the lower-to-mid-20's. 

Tuesday looks mostly sunny, High near 40, Low in lower 20's. 

A significant winter storm is likely here Friday. 

And I really like what the Birmingham weather office has done here, instead of focusing so much on exact snowfall totals yet, they are focusing on travel impacts. And clearly up here in the Northern third of Alabama is the worst zone for that. 

As the Huntsville office notes, South of the Tennessee River is the best chance for a wintry mix that includes some freezing rain/ice accumulation. North of the TN River I'd bank on it all being snow/sleet. 

And my personal estimate of snowfall totals is anywhere from 1-3 inches South of the TN River, and roughly 3-6 inches North of the River. 

There are hazards to this for grown folks to worry about, mainly just not driving once the roads get bad (which will likely happen for many of us before daybreak Friday) and waiting until they are safe again (probably Sunday for many of us). 

But if you've got kids, they should love this. They'll get a day off school, three-day weekend, and this looks like one of those good snows that you just don't see every year around here. 

So be safe, stay warm, and . . . enjoy.