FORECAST:
Friday (High 41, Low 20): Mostly sunny. Cold and breezy.
Saturday (High 48, Low 19): Sunny. Cold.
Sunday (High 46, Low 27): Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible during the day. Rain showers are likely at night.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Monday (High 51, Low 34): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a lingering shower.
Tuesday (High 57, Low 35): Mostly sunny.
Wednesday (High 58, Low 37): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.
Thursday (High 56, Low 40): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.
PRONÓSTICO:
Viernes (Máxima 41, Mínima 20): Mayormente soleado. Frío y ventoso.
Sábado (Máxima 48, Mínima 19): Soleado. Frío.
Domingo (Máxima 46, Mínima 27): Parcialmente nublado con posible lluvia aislada durante el día. Es probable que haya lluvias por la noche.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Lunes (Máxima 51, Mínima 34): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias persistentes.
Martes (Máxima 57, Mínima 35): Mayormente soleado.
Miércoles (Máxima 58, Mínima 37): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Jueves (Máxima 56, Mínima 40): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
NOTES:
The National Weather Service in Birmingham has put together a great summary of the January 21st snow that mainly affected South Alabama and also the January 10th snow/ice event that affected us in North Alabama. Thanks to them for being conscientious in giving us good online archives that are easy to navigate.
They also have some SKYWARN classes coming up, online and in-person. Huntsville has some in-person classes coming up too. Please remember that these classes are free to attend (or take online), so anyone who wants to learn more about severe weather is strongly encouraged to try one out. We need reliable spotters in our network, the more the merrier.
And the National Weather Service in Nashville is hosting Severe Weather Awareness Day on February 22nd at Trevecca Nazarene University in Nashville. It is also a free event, but you do have to register for it beforehand. With these on-site SKYWARN classes, you can just show up.
As always, if anyone notices mistakes in the Spanish version of the forecast, please get in touch with me. I am not sure that "persistente" is the best word for a "lingering" rain shower, for example.
The latest episode of Weatherbrains (Bill Murray and James Spann's podcast) featured Harold Brooks sharing a lot of memories of Chuck Doswell and getting other people on the panel to do the same. I'd like to share several of Chuck's finest moments that stand out in my memory:
1) His essay on the human element in weather forecasting, more timely now than when it was originally published in the 80's.
2) A highly speculative but interesting essay about what tornadoes do for the atmosphere, and how that might help us understand why some storms produce tornadoes and others don't.
3) His very thorough take on tornado precautions.
4) His rant about Mike Morgan's advice to Oklahoma viewers to drive South to get out of the way of a tornado instead of sheltering in place back in 2013.
5) His detailed explanation of why he did not consider himself formally religious. I especially felt like sharing this since someone on Weatherbrains mentioned that he was well-known as an "unbeliever". I often believe in letting people speak for themselves about their beliefs, or what they don't believe. That's why I'm sharing this.
6) A blog post in which he ironically (for someone not formally religious) advocates the basic message of the well-known "serenity prayer".
7) Another blog post in which he speculates on how Christian ethics could defeat terrorism better than just fighting fire with fire, in the long-term.
8) A blog post in which he expressed his support for the #metoo movement when it was just gaining momentum.
9) His tribute to his best friend Alan Moller when Al retired.
10) His tribute after Al died. And that's where I'll close all these Doswell links. I hope that man knew that he was just as appreciated by some of us as the people he posted tributes to. If you delve deeper into his personal blog, please read some of the tributes he wrote for his friends. They are wonderful. And all things considered, so was the man who wrote them. I respected him a lot, and he will be missed.
DISCUSSION:
Overall it has been a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley. And while the morning was similarly cold to what we've had lately, the afternoon got a little "warmer". The High in Cullman was 45 after a morning Low of 14. Jasper had a High of 46 and Low of 14. Haleyville had a High of 44 and Low of 20. Fort Payne had a High of 42 and Low of 13. Decatur saw a High of 45 and Low of 16. Huntsville had a High of 45 and Low of 18. Muscle Shoals had a High of 46 and Low of 18. I keep noticing a pretty good breeze at a lot of these sites, though I didn't notice it in real life when I braved the great outdoors. Tupelo's dewpoint observations are out to lunch today, it seems, but I'll still report their High temperature of 46 and Low of 19. Memphis saw a few more clouds today than these other sites but had quite the temperature range throughout the day, Low of 12 and then an afternoon High of 48. And then Nashville ended up getting mostly cloudy this afternoon, the High there getting up to 44 after a morning Low of 21.
Looks like some snow flurries moving through Middle Tennessee at the moment. But it looks really light. And it's questionable sometimes how much of this is reaching the ground.
We have another cold front ready to affect the region, but this looks like a weak "clipper" system.
And we really aren't going to notice much difference from it tomorrow. Doesn't look like any rain for North Alabama or Southern Middle Tennessee, unless it's just really light, passing stuff, maybe a few snow flurries overnight. But tomorrow looks mostly sunny, a little breezy at times, High near 40 or so, Low near 20 or so.
Then dry air in place for Saturday, sunny skies, High in the upper 40's, Low near 20 again, could dip into upper teens.
Sunday we'll have some moisture from the low-level jet coming from the Gulf of Mexico (or Gulf of America, pick your poison . . . call it the Gulf of Greenland and see if I give a damn, I just say what I'm used to) spreading Northeast. And I think the day will mostly stay dry for us. Could see an isolated shower or two somewhere during the day, but it's only about a 1-in-5 chance. High should be in about the mid-40's, the Low in the upper 20's.
Then rain is likely Sunday night, widespread over the area.
Then on Monday, that activity quickly moves out, weakens, as high pressure moves back in from out West.
The ECMWF shows a more gradual clearing trend Monday with some rain hanging around.
But I don't think it's got it right this time. Only going to mention a chance of a lingering shower Monday morning, 20% probability of precipitation.
High should be 50 or so, the Low in the lower 30's.
Tuesday looks mostly sunny with a High in the upper 50's and a Low in the mid-30's.
The forecast gets less certain after that. About a 20% chance of rain looks reasonable for Wednesday with what looks like a weak system approaching, High in upper 50's, Low in upper 30's.
And given how messy the model guidance is, I'm just going to keep that 20% chance of rain in for Thursday too. High should be in the mid-to-upper 50's, the Low roughly around 40 degrees. I'm not showing the European here, but the model guidance is murky at best by Wednesday and Thursday. And a 20% chance of rain is the best I know to cover things.
For that reason, there won't be a 10-day-outlook this time. If you want people pretending high confidence in stuff beyond a week in advance, try AccuWeather. At least they used to play that game, not sure if they do anymore. I don't keep up with a lot of the popular sites like that, but I know they lost my respect when they started dissing the National Weather Service and then posting those ridiculously long-range forecasts years ago. So forget them . . . just read the Farmer's Almanac if you need to know a guess for more than a week in advance. All an honest forecaster can show you for 10 or more days is general trends anyway. There are a lot of dishonest forecasters out there, by the way. We're lucky to have a lot of good ones in our immediate area who do believe in doing things right. I've never forgotten an old Weatherbrains podcast where Kevin Selle from Texas confronted one of the head guys at AccuWeather about how they criticized the NWS but then tried to promote those long-range outlooks as if they could actually be trusted. It got pretty heated. I could use a good belly laugh. Maybe I'll find that show again.
Rainfall totals will probably average about a half-inch for most of North Alabama, could get closer to one inch for parts of Northwest Alabama, and probably closer to a quarter-inch for much of Southern Middle Tennessee. That's valid over the next seven days. So even Sunday night's rain doesn't look like any kind of a monsoon, just a cold, peaceful rain here as we get toward the end of January.
Anybody who follows my social media closely might have noticed I got in an argument with a writer/podcaster (Jason Louv) recently about the allegations against Neil Gaiman. My argument was simply that Neil Gaiman (and his ex-wife, Amanda Palmer) deserved due process like anyone else accused of crimes, or great moral wrongs, before being condemned and punished as subhuman, monstrous creatures. And this guy blew it way out of proportion. I do plan on responding to him at length at some point, but I've had a lot more important things going on lately. And I want to make sure what I say is thoughtful and clearly understood. It may be an argument worth finishing. If so, I'll probably just put it in a "chatter" section at the bottom of a forecast like this one.
If you like reading this and wish I put these out more often, please consider hitting the "buy me a coffee" link. For now I just post whenever I feel like it, which is not going to be every day. But I try to do the job right when I'm going to take the time to put content out there.
P.S. 9:49 PM Note - I did find that old Weatherbrains show where Kevin stood up to one of the bigwigs who had a lot to do with AccuWeather. This show is why I have never been a fan of the company since. Unfortunately I went to their website and found that they are indeed still doing that 45-day forecast. Don't buy into that, please . . . the Farmer's Almanac would probably serve you just as well. And it has a cozy feeling that a website doesn't. And if you do buy into a 45-day-forecast, then . . . I'll echo the words of George Strait . . . which you'll have to click the link to hear but can probably guess.
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