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Sunday, January 12, 2025

Staying Cold and Dry, Then Some Rain This Weekend

Monday (High 45, Low 29): Partly cloudy. 

Tuesday (High 43, Low 19): Sunny.

Wednesday (High 43, Low 21): Sunny.

Thursday (High 50, Low 23): Mostly sunny.

Friday (High 55, Low 32): Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers.

Saturday (High 56, Low 43): Rain showers likely. 

Sunday (High 42, Low 31): Decreasing clouds with a 20% chance of showers. 

We had a sunny day in Cullman with a High of 46 and a Low of 19. 



We have a weak disturbance coming out of the Southwest wind flow from the Gulf, but it's mainly going to be a rainmaker for South Alabama. Those radar echoes in North Alabama are probably mostly or all virga, rain that evaporates before it actually reaches the ground. 

We could see an isolated shower or two up this way, but the risk of any measurable rain is so low, I wouldn't even worry about it. Just be careful on the roads tonight into early tomorrow still, because any moisture at all refreezing can still cause a few slick spots, at least on elevated roadways like bridges. The major travel problems should be over for most of us, but this is a case of better safe than sorry, since we are not used to driving in winter weather in this part of the world. It's a fairly rare thing. 

We'll see partly cloudy skies tomorrow up here, a High near 45 and a morning Low of about . . . 29. The extra moisture should help us out in not having as frigid a night/morning this time, even if we don't see any rain tomorrow. 

Behind that system, another shot of drier air that lets us get really cold overnight. So for Tuesday, looking at a High of about 43, Low near 20 under sunny skies. 

Basically the same thing for Wednesday. 


Then temperatures moderate a little bit on Thursday, sunny skies still, the High climbing to about 50, the Low staying down in the lower 20's. 




Then we have another weekend storm system, although this really just looks like a rainmaker, not likely to be enough unstable air to support thunderstorms. And it'll be too warm for snow as this thing comes in. 

Will only include a 40% chance of rain for Friday, High in mid-50's, Low near 30. 

Then Saturday rain showers are likely with a High in the mid-50's, Low in the lower 40's. Doubt we have much if any thunder and certainly no concern for wintry precipitation. 

Then Sunday behind the front we'll have a clearing trend, will keep a 20% chance of a lingering shower in there. High should only be in the lower 40's and the Low near 30 or so. Now this is the one day during this forecast period that we might have to watch for a few light snow showers wrapping around the back side of this system, at least on the Tennessee side. At this point, it doesn't look like a big deal even if that does happen somewhere, but it's seven days out, so you always have to keep checking back on something that's that far in the future. Unless it's a boring summer pattern, Days 6-7 of a forecast usually just show you general trends, rough sketch of what the weather is going to do. 

Speaking of that, the hype train has started to crank up about January 20th and beyond (that's not this coming Monday but the one after that, Martin Luther King Day and Inauguration Day this year), whether we'll see another winter storm here in that time frame. I think James Spann has jumped on board the hype train simply to get it under some control. If you read his comments carefully, he makes it pretty clear that until it's in the seven-day range, nobody really knows, can just notice broad patterns and trends and speculate on what might develop. Somebody even asked him in the comments when he could be more specific, and he said once it gets within seven days. 

Ideally I'd think it's best for forecasters not to even speculate on something this far in advance and as anomalous for the Southeast as a winter storm. But when the internet is blowing up with speculations about it already, I guess we're lucky to have some really responsible forecasters around here with a lot of clout, who are willing to bring things back to a sane perspective. The bottom line is that it's too early to make the call. But sometimes you have to show people details and even ensemble forecasts for 10 days and beyond I guess. 

And I noticed Jason Simpson sounds more confident in a winter storm threat between the 19th and 21st. I'm not too sure I go along with that. The general trend and idea is there, but to narrow it down to even a three-day window, I think that's jumping the gun a little. 

Having said that, it's always a good idea to be prepared for winter weather, even when it's just the brutal cold we're having lately. 

I found I made a mistake in thinking the National Weather Service talked about remembering "four P's." I remembered wrong. There are actually five. They want us to remember to protect:

People
Pets
Plants
Pipes

and the fifth is 

Practice heat safety. 

That last one can be the most important to remember sometimes. Most of you know who Weird Al is, the comedy singer? He actually lost his parents to a terrible accident involving the flue of their fireplace; they suffered carbon monoxide poisoning. And that can happen when somebody uses a generator improperly. And sometimes people can set their place on fire by just forgetting simple things, like with a space heater. 

And if you're going to stock up in case of a winter storm, let me quote to you the words of a young lady from the dollar store, when she was joining me one year in groaning and rolling her eyes about how stupid it was for people to buy up all the bread and milk. I could try to be all eloquent and scientific about it, but she put it best: "You buy a jug of milk, and the power goes out, it's gonna' RURN!" 

That's exactly right. Bread is okay, but people need to be thinking in terms of peanut butter and crackers, bottles of water, other nonperishable foods, and a hand-held can opener. And think about supplies you'd need if you couldn't go out and shop for a few days, like first-aid or medicines that people in your family need. Use your head. Let the other idiots be the ones making a mad dash for milk and beer. And if you can afford it, it's better to stock up on that stuff before the mad rush begins when snow is in the forecast. After all, something totally random could knock out the power at any time, and you might be glad you had some food you didn't need electricity to cook . . . or water that didn't have to come out of the faucet. Think about those wildfires in California and what an awful time some people are going through. Stuff happens. It can take you totally off guard. So it's good to keep a few nonperishable foods, water bottles, and other essentials on hand year-round if you can spare a few extra dollars for it. Even when we do have a winter storm, it is not the end of the world, doesn't need to be panicked over. There are simple things that most of us can do to get through that stretch of a few days (usually just a day or two) when things are out of the ordinary. 

All right, that's the end of my soapbox for tonight. 

Wishing you warmth, and if you want to buy me a coffee, I'll sip on it. 

Been sipping on a lot of soup lately, as I got covid right before Christmas and am still dealing with some of its aftershocks. I actually tested negative for it, but then somebody else in the household tested positive, and after I went and described it to a doctor, he said yep, you had it. It's my fourth round of it, so I guess I've had it about once a year. This one was about as bad as the first time, maybe slightly worse in some ways that I'll keep to myself in this era of oversharing. The second time was so mild that I mistakenly thought I'd never catch it again. That was right around the time people were starting to take the vaccines. I'm glad those came out and probably saved a lot of lives, but I have to say that a lot of times, after we dealt with this sickness for several years, I haven't always seen a whole lot of difference in how sick it makes people, relative to how many boosters they've had. A lot of people I know only took the first jab. Hopefully that prevented a lot of the serious complications that people were having in the first year or two of it going around. One person in my family had such a bad time with it that he signed up for the vaccine before it even came out, he told his doctor, give me that thing as soon as it's available! And he'd thought the whole thing was a hoax until he got sick with it. It is some nasty stuff, and I'm just glad nobody I know has had to be in the hospital for it lately. I did know two people who died from it, one was a relative when it first started (we thought it was the flu at the time, person was not able to recover from the heart and lung damage), another was a principal I had in school a long time ago. And of course a lot of celebrities died from it . . . Joe Diffie, Charley Pride, Larry King, Bob Saget, I think maybe Colin Powell too . . . this stuff doesn't care who you are. 

But I did care about Joe Diffie and his great sense of humor, especially since the guy in my family who didn't make it through covid used to play this video by him all the time. 

Over and out. 
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