Cold Week Ahead, Watching Snow Potential Friday

Monday (High 35, Low 32): Cloudy, windy, and cold. Isolated showers are possible, mainly in the morning, and rain could mix with light snowflakes - elevated roadways could see a few slick spots. 

Tuesday (High 37, Low 23): Mostly sunny. Cold and breezy.

Wednesday (High 39, Low 20): Sunny. Staying cold.

Thursday (High 41, Low 17): Sunny.

Friday (High 35, Low 25): Rain/snow showers likely.

Saturday (High 33, Low 28): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of snow showers.

Sunday (High 40, Low 23): Mostly sunny. 

And just as I was going to start writing this forecast discussion, a Tornado Warning has been issued for Pickens County, where there is just enough unstable air to support such a thing with these wind dynamics. For most of us, it is way too cool and stable for any actual severe weather beyond gradient winds that could do minor damage. But that one storm has shown evidence of a possible tornado. It's nearly 9 PM and the warning is probably going to be cancelled early. It is moving into a stabler airmass like we have up this way. Not really even seeing lightning with our rain in North Alabama tonight. 

And actually as of 9:01 PM the tornado has been confirmed by radar. It showed a debris signature earlier. So I'm going to go ahead and post this and just add to it as I write up a forecast/discussion. 

Wes Wyatt and Lauren Linahan are all over this tornado. So I refer you to them. This is a little to our South and West and not going to affect our area. Will move along to the forecast discussion for here. But if you know anybody in the path, let them know we've had a tornado confirmed in that warning. Gotta' take that seriously even in a marginal situation like this. 

Just a note at 9:12 PM, radar trends make it look like the tornado is trying to dissipate and the warning will not likely be extended into Tuscaloosa County. 

There have been several confirmed instances of wind damage and a couple tornadoes over the Mid-South today. The atmosphere in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas has been a lot different than ours. 

This stuff in North Alabama is just a lot of rain and wind. 

The Tornado Warning is cancelled as of 9:14 PM. 

So this is a yucky night, but fortunately our air in North Alabama has been too cool and stable for any of the severe stuff. There was some tree damage in Cherokee earlier, but that was from gradient winds not in a thunderstorm. We were put under a Wind Advisory for stuff like that at some point earlier today. 

Right now we've got rain, fog, and mist in Cullman with visibility cut down to two and a half miles. It is 57.2 degrees with same dewpoint, 100% relative humidity. Pressure is 29.74 inches and still falling at the moment as this low pressure system moves through tonight. Winds are from the South at 20 miles per hour (that's what we mean about the gradient winds, eh?) with higher gusts up to 28 mph. 

This temperature of 57, or technically 57.2, is our High so far today, and our Low this morning was 39, or if you want to nitpick, 39.2 degrees. 

Tonight/tomorrow has gotten sort of interesting. It's now looking like we'll have that raw, windy, cold day as expected, plenty of clouds, but like we also could see some snow showers mix in with the rain at times. Little or no accumulation is expected, but the combination of this and the chance of a "flash freeze" effect with some of the rainfall, moisture that hasn't been able to evaporate before the cold air hits tonight . . . I'd be careful about any slick spots on roads tomorrow morning, at least on elevated surfaces like bridges. 

So expecting mostly cloudy skies tomorrow and windy with isolated showers possible, a lot of it rain but some snowflakes could be mixed in there too. High near 35, Low near 32. It's one of those borderline situations where a rain/snow mix has to be taken into account. It shouldn't be enough snow to accumulate much, if at all. But these little details keep things fun, I guess. 

Wind Advisory stays in effect through 3 PM tomorrow. 

And here in real time tonight we could have wind gusts up to about 40 mph in Cullman. 

Then Tuesday looks mostly sunny but still cold and breezy. Winds could still gust up to 20 mph, of course winds will be out of the North/Northwest behind this cold front. 

High on Tuesday should be in the mid to upper 30's, so about 37-38, the Low about 23-24. Seriously cold air incoming, we've known that for several days now. 

Then Wednesday looks sunny with a High in upper 30's, Low down near 20. 

Then that pattern continues for Thursday, high pressure in place, sunny skies, High near 40, Low in about the 16-20 range. 

Friday and Saturday continue to look very interesting, the most interesting days of this forecast period. It looks like this next system, the Low pressure system moving through the Gulf of Mexico, may bring us more of a wintry mix at first. But at least some of Friday/Friday night into Saturday, there are opportunities for some periods we could see all snow. And I think we have to consider the potential for accumulating snow around here with this system, even though it's five days away still. 

Going to undercut the guidance a little and forecast a High in the mid-30's, a Low in the mid-20's, which is in line with guidance. But the models want us in the upper 30's Friday and I'm just not sold on that if we get some snow showers going early in the day. 

One major change in the guidance this time is that precipitation is likely, 60% or greater chance of someone getting a rain or snow shower. So this adds to my concern that at least some of us may see accumulating snow. 

Then for Saturday will cut the precip chance back to 40%. A lot of the snow may happen Friday night, and the more I look at this, I think many of us will see snow, perhaps accumulating snow, with this system. It's five days away, but I'd say it's a good possibility. 

The HIgh for Saturday should be in the lower-to-mid-30's and the Low in the upper 20's. Again I'm second-guessing the model guidance and allowing for the possibility that overnight snow will keep us in the lower 30's as we go into Saturday. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy, clouds maybe diminishing throughout the day, if I had to guess in this pattern. This is six days out.

Then high pressure moves in again for Sunday, expecting mostly sunny skies with a High in the lower 40's, Low in the lower 20's. 

Friday, Friday night, into at least Saturday morning, is the time to watch for any accumulating snow around here. 

I was going to say warm wishes, but I guess now I'll just gripe about how this text editor went to center align and refuses my requests to go back to left align. Hasta luego.