Cold Week Ahead, Watching Snow Potential Friday

Monday (High 35, Low 32): Cloudy, windy, and cold. Isolated showers are possible, mainly in the morning, and rain could mix with light snowflakes - elevated roadways could see a few slick spots. 

Tuesday (High 37, Low 23): Mostly sunny. Cold and breezy.

Wednesday (High 39, Low 20): Sunny. Staying cold.

Thursday (High 41, Low 17): Sunny.

Friday (High 35, Low 25): Rain/snow showers likely.

Saturday (High 33, Low 28): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of snow showers.

Sunday (High 40, Low 23): Mostly sunny. 

And just as I was going to start writing this forecast discussion, a Tornado Warning has been issued for Pickens County, where there is just enough unstable air to support such a thing with these wind dynamics. For most of us, it is way too cool and stable for any actual severe weather beyond gradient winds that could do minor damage. But that one storm has shown evidence of a possible tornado. It's nearly 9 PM and the warning is probably going to be cancelled early. It is moving into a stabler airmass like we have up this way. Not really even seeing lightning with our rain in North Alabama tonight. 

And actually as of 9:01 PM the tornado has been confirmed by radar. It showed a debris signature earlier. So I'm going to go ahead and post this and just add to it as I write up a forecast/discussion. 

Wes Wyatt and Lauren Linahan are all over this tornado. So I refer you to them. This is a little to our South and West and not going to affect our area. Will move along to the forecast discussion for here. But if you know anybody in the path, let them know we've had a tornado confirmed in that warning. Gotta' take that seriously even in a marginal situation like this. 

Just a note at 9:12 PM, radar trends make it look like the tornado is trying to dissipate and the warning will not likely be extended into Tuscaloosa County. 

There have been several confirmed instances of wind damage and a couple tornadoes over the Mid-South today. The atmosphere in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas has been a lot different than ours. 

This stuff in North Alabama is just a lot of rain and wind. 

The Tornado Warning is cancelled as of 9:14 PM. 

So this is a yucky night, but fortunately our air in North Alabama has been too cool and stable for any of the severe stuff. There was some tree damage in Cherokee earlier, but that was from gradient winds not in a thunderstorm. We were put under a Wind Advisory for stuff like that at some point earlier today. 

Right now we've got rain, fog, and mist in Cullman with visibility cut down to two and a half miles. It is 57.2 degrees with same dewpoint, 100% relative humidity. Pressure is 29.74 inches and still falling at the moment as this low pressure system moves through tonight. Winds are from the South at 20 miles per hour (that's what we mean about the gradient winds, eh?) with higher gusts up to 28 mph. 

This temperature of 57, or technically 57.2, is our High so far today, and our Low this morning was 39, or if you want to nitpick, 39.2 degrees. 

Tonight/tomorrow has gotten sort of interesting. It's now looking like we'll have that raw, windy, cold day as expected, plenty of clouds, but like we also could see some snow showers mix in with the rain at times. Little or no accumulation is expected, but the combination of this and the chance of a "flash freeze" effect with some of the rainfall, moisture that hasn't been able to evaporate before the cold air hits tonight . . . I'd be careful about any slick spots on roads tomorrow morning, at least on elevated surfaces like bridges. 

So expecting mostly cloudy skies tomorrow and windy with isolated showers possible, a lot of it rain but some snowflakes could be mixed in there too. High near 35, Low near 32. It's one of those borderline situations where a rain/snow mix has to be taken into account. It shouldn't be enough snow to accumulate much, if at all. But these little details keep things fun, I guess. 

Wind Advisory stays in effect through 3 PM tomorrow. 

And here in real time tonight we could have wind gusts up to about 40 mph in Cullman. 

Then Tuesday looks mostly sunny but still cold and breezy. Winds could still gust up to 20 mph, of course winds will be out of the North/Northwest behind this cold front. 

High on Tuesday should be in the mid to upper 30's, so about 37-38, the Low about 23-24. Seriously cold air incoming, we've known that for several days now. 

Then Wednesday looks sunny with a High in upper 30's, Low down near 20. 

Then that pattern continues for Thursday, high pressure in place, sunny skies, High near 40, Low in about the 16-20 range. 

Friday and Saturday continue to look very interesting, the most interesting days of this forecast period. It looks like this next system, the Low pressure system moving through the Gulf of Mexico, may bring us more of a wintry mix at first. But at least some of Friday/Friday night into Saturday, there are opportunities for some periods we could see all snow. And I think we have to consider the potential for accumulating snow around here with this system, even though it's five days away still. 

Going to undercut the guidance a little and forecast a High in the mid-30's, a Low in the mid-20's, which is in line with guidance. But the models want us in the upper 30's Friday and I'm just not sold on that if we get some snow showers going early in the day. 

One major change in the guidance this time is that precipitation is likely, 60% or greater chance of someone getting a rain or snow shower. So this adds to my concern that at least some of us may see accumulating snow. 

Then for Saturday will cut the precip chance back to 40%. A lot of the snow may happen Friday night, and the more I look at this, I think many of us will see snow, perhaps accumulating snow, with this system. It's five days away, but I'd say it's a good possibility. 

The HIgh for Saturday should be in the lower-to-mid-30's and the Low in the upper 20's. Again I'm second-guessing the model guidance and allowing for the possibility that overnight snow will keep us in the lower 30's as we go into Saturday. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy, clouds maybe diminishing throughout the day, if I had to guess in this pattern. This is six days out.

Then high pressure moves in again for Sunday, expecting mostly sunny skies with a High in the lower 40's, Low in the lower 20's. 

Friday, Friday night, into at least Saturday morning, is the time to watch for any accumulating snow around here. 

I was going to say warm wishes, but I guess now I'll just gripe about how this text editor went to center align and refuses my requests to go back to left align. Hasta luego.

Some Rain Tomorrow, Very Cold Week Ahead, Potential for Snow Next Weekend

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 56, Low 32): Mostly cloudy and windy with scattered rain showers during the day. Rain will become more widespread at night.

Monday (High 36, Low 31): Mostly cloudy, windy, and bitterly cold. Isolated showers may linger in the early morning and cause slick/icy spots on a few elevated roadways, mainly bridges.

Tuesday (High 35, Low 25): Mostly sunny. Breezy and very cold.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 37, Low 20): Sunny.

Thursday (High 39, Low 16): Sunny.

Friday (High 35, Low 27): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of snow showers.

Saturday (High 34, Low 24): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of snow showers. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 56, Mínima 32): Mayormente nublado y ventoso con lluvias dispersas durante el día. La lluvia se generalizará por la noche.

Lunes (Máxima 36, ​​Mínima 31): Mayormente nublado, ventoso y muy frío. Es posible que haya lluvias aisladas durante la madrugada y que provoquen manchas resbaladizas o heladas en algunas carreteras elevadas, principalmente en los puentes.

Martes (Máxima 35, Mínima 25): Mayormente soleado. Ventoso y muy frío.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 37, Mínima 20): Soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 39, Mínima 16): Soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 35, Mínima 27): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de chubascos de nieve.

Sábado (Máxima 34, Mínima 24): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de chubascos de nieve.

NOTES:

This past Fall was the warmest on record.

Here are some tips on how to stay safe in rough winter weather like we're expecting. 

DISCUSSION:

Skies were sunny in the Tennessee Valley today, and as you might expect, it was cold. The High in Cullman was 45, and the Low was 25. Jasper saw a High of 50 and a Low of 23. Haleyville had a High of 49 and Low of 23. There were a few more clouds in Huntsville at times, and they saw a High of only 46, a morning Low of 27. Nashville also had cloudy conditions in the evening hours and saw a High of 42 and Low of 29. 

We had some mid-to-high-level clouds moving here out of Western Tennessee in that Northwest upper-level wind flow. But mainly our weather right now is dominated by surface high pressure. Keeping us sunny, dry, and in a cold airmass. 

That will change quickly tomorrow as we have another system headed our way from out West. 

The NAM shows a slower timing of this low pressure system, which I think is right. 

Tomorrow should mainly be cloudy and windy, with coverage of showers scattered during the day. And then after dark, rain will become more likely and widespread. Winds may gust up to 20-30 miles per hour. 

This system may bring some organized severe thunderstorms to Mississippi, Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, and even far Eastern Texas tomorrow/tomorrow night. Technically Northwest Alabama is included in a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms able to reach severe limits (winds of 50 knots/58 mph or greater), but I personally don't think that is going to happen. The air looks too cool and stable around here. Most of us won't even have any thunder or lightning with the rain. 

Looking for a High of about 55 tomorrow, Low of about 32 tonight. 

Then Monday looks like one of those raw days with temperatures going backwards. To keep it simple, we'll say a High near 36 and Low near 30-32 range. Could see a brief wintry mix in the morning, but if so, it should be isolated and only enough to cause some slick spots on roads, mainly bridges. 

There is a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow night/Monday morning, but it is for mainly Northern parts of Tennessee. These areas could see up to an inch of snow and up to about a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation from freezing rain. That is not expected in Southern Tennessee or into Alabama. If we see any flurries or bits of freezing rain, again, should only be enough to slick a few bridges or other elevated spots on some roads. And the mix should be brief if it does happen around here. Only mentioning it at all in the interest of being cautious. 

It will be another windy day Monday, and wind chill values will likely stay in the 20's. That's dangerous weather to stay out in, also for pets, not just human members of family. 

This system will bring a significant winter storm to much of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and even Mid-Atlantic region, but not to us down this way. I noticed parts of Kansas are actually under a Blizzard Warning out ahead of this system. 

Should not be as windy Tuesday but still breezy, which with this kind of temperatures, is going to make for some rough wind chill factors. Should be a mostly sunny day with actual temperatures starting the day in mid-20's, "warming" to the mid/upper 30's. With the breeze, it will feel even colder again. 

Then Wednesday looks sunny, but we stay in the very cold pattern, High in the mid-to-upper-30's and Low down near 20. 

Thursday also looks sunny around here with a High in the upper 30's, Low in the upper Teens.

Then Friday has begun to look interesting. If this guidance from the GFS is right, this could be a setup for some accumulating snow locally. And this has been hinted at by the models for a while now, but it was in the 7-10 day range or further out, which is not very reliable except as a general trend. Now that we're closer to it, next few days, hopefully some details will become clearer. 

The ECMWF shows a similar look but a slower approach of the system. And at least to my eye, the GFS has the track of the Low more ideally placed for a significant snow event in our region than the ECMWF currently does. 

Let's take a deep breath and remember that this is still six days out. So it's not good to get too hung up on any one specific scenario this far in advance with some model disagreements still going on. 

A reasonable forecast for Friday is a partly to mostly cloudy day, High in the mid-30's, Low in the upper 20's, a 30% chance of showers. With a note that some of those showers could be in the form of wintry precipitation. Even the type is dicey. It could be sleet, it could be snow, it could even be freezing rain. Too soon to call how much accumulates, if any does around here. Just that general idea is on the table for sure now, a serious consideration, not just hype by these doofuses who love to hype things. 

And I agree with the GFS in showing that stuff lingering into Saturday some. Will include at least a 20% chance of lingering showers, perhaps snow showers, for Saturday. Forecasting a High in mid-30's, maybe upper 30's, Low in about the mid-20's. 

If I had to bet on it, I'd say some of us in our region will see some snow accumulation from this, even if it ends up being light. But it's really too soon to bet on it. We need to all stay logical and mind the probabilities. 

Rainfall totals should average about an inch. The WPC does give us a low risk of seeing some snow/sleet accumulation a week from now. So keep an eye on it. If we go under a Winter Storm Watch or Warning later this week, please take it seriously. Any knucklehead can run to the store for milk and bread, but you might want to think about more important things like everybody's got water if the power goes out any length of time, old folks got their medicines, there's some food to eat that you don't have to cook, maybe you've got a hand-held can opener for some of that. And the main thing is just safety from the cold . . . protect people, pets, plants, and pipes whenever there is a cold spell like this coming, regardless of whether or not we end up seeing any snow or ice. Of course use good sense driving, because even when there's a little ice on a bridge, a lot of people don't pay attention to it until they go skidding. 

If you'd like to support these weather efforts, you can drop a dollar in my bucket here. 

You know what? Since nobody is donating to my "coffee" fund at all, I'm going more with my personal opinion for this forecast than "just the facts". And I think it is likely the GFS will verify for Friday/Saturday and that our precip mode will be mainly snow, perhaps all snow for some of us. Being an amateur affords one the opportunity to play around more. And I'm going to forecast what I really think tonight. 

As always, if anyone finds any major errors with the meteorology or even stuff like the Spanish, feel free to get in touch by e-mail or leaving a comment here. 

Some Rain Sunday, Very Cold Pattern Next Week

Friday (High 50, Low 29): Mostly sunny. Seasonably cold and breezy.

Saturday (High 45, Low 25): Sunny. Seasonably cold.

Sunday (High 56, Low 31): Rainy. Cold.

Monday (High 39, Low 32): Mostly cloudy.

Tuesday (High 35, Low 24): Mostly sunny.

Wednesday (High 36, Low 20): Mostly sunny.

Thursday (High 38, Low 17): Mostly sunny. 

It was a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley with light, variable winds. The High in Cullman was 50 after a morning Low of 25. 

We have high pressure in place for the moment keeping us cold and dry. 

Tomorrow looks like another sunny day, breeze will pick up again, High near 50, Low near 30. 

Saturday is looking dry, sunny skies, High in mid-40's, Low in mid-20's. Winds calmed down. 

We actually have a clipper system tomorrow, but it looks like it will produce little to no rain, just a slight increase in clouds/moisture, which is why our Low tonight is near 30 instead of well down in the 20's like this morning's.

Sunday we'll have another system approaching from out West. It will bring a risk for severe thunderstorms to Missississippi, Louisiana, East Texas, Southeastern Arkansas, and places like Memphis. That risk does barely clip extreme West Alabama. 

And this same system may bring a winter storm to our neighbors in the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Many of those people are already under a Winter Storm Watch for the threat of greater than four inches of snow from this system on Sunday. 

Locally around Cullman and such places, we are only expecting rain. It's not going to be warm or unstable enough to support storms, and it's not going to be cold enough to support accumulating wintry precipitation. So we'll see a rainy day with a High in the upper 50's and a Low in the lower 30's. 

Then on Monday it looks like the snow moves up into West Virginia and Pennsylvania. 

Around here, the rain should taper off through Sunday night, but we'll stay mostly cloudy Monday, the High only making it up to about 40 after a Low near 30 or so. 

Then the seriously cold air hits us starting Tuesday. We'll see mostly sunny skies, a High in the mid-30's and a Low only in the lower 20's. 

Then basically the same for Wednesday except if anything a colder morning, Low near 20 or even dipping into the teens. 

Then Thursday looks mostly sunny again with a High in the upper 30's, Low in about the 15-20 bracket.

In this very cold pattern, we will have to watch next weekend for any winter weather potential. There have been hints of that in the forecast modelling at times, and if you want to start preparing for a potential winter storm while the weather is still nicer, there is certainly nothing wrong with that. The main thing to remember around here during any period where we've got several days where most of the day features temperatures below freezing, whether we have to deal with snow/ice or not, is the P's to protect - People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes.

Rainfall totals will average about an inch for this forecast period. 

In other matters of public safety, the FBI has issued a statement about the Bourbon Street terrorist attack. What a way to ring in a new year. Anybody else got a feeling it's going to be full of headaches? But seriously, I do appreciate these people working behind the scenes to help keep the rest of us as safe as possible. Law and order doesn't just happen on its own. 

If anybody wants to buy me a coffee, I'll sip on it.