Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Some Rain on the Way, Clearing for the Weekend, Warm Next Week

Thursday (High 66, Low 42): Cloudy and windy with widely scattered rain showers possible during the day. Then widespread rain showers are likely at night. 

Friday (High 66, Low 55): Windy with gradually decreasing clouds. Scattered showers are still possible, mainly in the morning. 

Saturday (High 60, Low 41): Mostly sunny. Still breezy.

Sunday (High 67, Low 39): Sunny.

Monday (High 69, Low 42): Mostly sunny.

Tuesday (High 70, Low 46): Mostly sunny. 

Wednesday (High 69, Low 48): Partly to mostly sunny. 

It was a sunny day in Cullman after a brief period of heavy fog this morning, and it got a little breezy at times with variable wind direction. The High was 66, and the Low was 36. Actually those numbers are rounded from precise temperatures measurements to a tenth of a degree. But tonight I'm leavin' the nitpickin' for people with head lice. Oh my God . . . hate speech . . . he took a cheap shot at those unfortunate souls suffering from head lice . . . off with his head!




So the weather feature we are watching is a closed upper-level Low out over the Desert Southwest. The wind flow ahead of it is producing a lower of lower-level and mid-level lift along the jet streak. So we have a good bit of rain and even some thunderstorms moving out of East Texas through the Mid-South. 

Around here, high pressure is keeping the lower levels of the atmosphere drier for now. We have some mid-and-high-level clouds moving in this evening, but it'll probably be at least midnight before we see any rain chances around here. 

And I shamelessly referred to NWS Huntsville's official forecast discussion to decide how to explain these weather maps. In case anybody didn't notice. 




It looks like scattered showers will be possible off and on all throughout tomorrow, including the early morning hours. And it'll be windy. The High will get to about 66 under cloudy skies, the morning Low near 42. Then at night rain showers will become likely. We can just about count on all getting some rain across the area Thursday night. 

Looks like the chances for flooding will stay well into the Northern and Western parts of Tennessee, not the parts that immediately border Alabama. That risk stretches into Arkansas and also up into Kentucky. And then they have a risk of severe thunderstorms down in Louisiana. 

Friday it looks like scattered showers will linger but will be over for most of us by late morning. It'll stay partly to mostly cloudy and windy. High expected to be in the mid-60's, Low in the mid-50's. 

Then after that system clears out of here on Saturday, skies will return to being mostly sunny, it'll still be breezy, especially early in the day, a High near 60 or so, Low of 40 or so. 



Sunday and Monday, we'll have high pressure in control of our weather again. Plenty of sunshine both days but especially Sunday, Highs in the upper 60's, the Low about 40 for Sunday and then lower 40's for Monday. 

So for anybody who didn't get a thrill out of our recent Arctic blast, where we were actually colder one day than Alaska was, maybe more than one day, but I took the trouble to check one day, this will be a lot more comfortable. And all clowning aside, seriously, if you need to get something done outside that the weather has been keeping you from, here comes your opportunity. These are actually more like Spring temperatures. But you know, Spring is only about a month away. Time flies when you're . . . even if you're under the weather like I've been for over a month now. I swear, the crud going around this season is the hanging-on type. Some of the rest of ya' mighta' noticed . . . 



And then we're going to be in an odd pattern that hangs on into mid-week where we're on the warm side of a front that is probably going to stall out and may not bring us any rain (at least through this forecast period). Now the Midwest and Ohio Valley, looks like this system will have some fun with, but around here, expecting mostly sunny skies to stay in place overall, maybe a few more clouds coming back by Wednesday, probably little or no rain, Highs approaching 70 and Lows edging into the upper 40's. 

So again if you've been needing to get out and weather is your excuse for staying in, weather's looking good after we get this rain out of the way. Next week may make you wonder if we skipped a month in the calendar instead of it being the start of February. But that's how it goes sometimes. And I don't know if it's because of global warming, ask Greta Thunberg. She's used to rolling with the punches. Leave the folks at the IPCC alone. If you need to harass somebody, actually, leave Greta alone too . . . bother the folks at HAARP, especially since I think they've shut down now. But the truly enlightened ones know how they are the elite and control the weather along with the reptilian humanoids. So if you can get a message through to them, you know, they love to hear from people in tinfoil hats I'm sure. 


Back in the real world, rainfall totals should average about 0.25-0.5 inch roughly South of the Tennessee River. And then as you get up into far Northern Alabama and into Tennessee, amounts closer to 1 inch will be more common over the next seven days. Probably all of that rain comes tomorrow and Friday. 

And I must have remembered some rogue news story about HAARP shutting down. Turns out they are still operational. (They could have closed down temporarily and then opened back up. I don't always keep up with the latest news. One time I posted online how much I liked a particular host on late-night radio, Ian Punnett, and then went to check up on him, found out he had died a few months before. Guess that's what I get for not listening religiously.) So here's some information on what they're really about. 

Of course, it has been rumored that I have a diabolical black cat named Salem and his evil accomplice, and an even meaner tabby cat named Stormy (women are always more diabolical . . . ask any man who's ever been married even once . . . or dated a lot in high school, let alone college) who have a top-secret contract with HAARP to help control the weather in these parts as needed. Should there be any truth to this, I would not be at liberty to discuss it with anyone, much less the general public. I can only joke about it. If I disappear mysteriously, some may theorize that the folks at HAARP were not amused. The cats will survive though, and they are superior creatures. I wish I was as noble as either one of 'em, or as much fun. 

In all seriousness, hope you all enjoy the warmer days. 


I think I'm going to lay off the Spanish forecasts unless somebody tells me that they are getting any good out of them. That's why the Good Lord made Duolingo, to practice that stuff for fun. Nobody cares about it in the real world these days. And from what I've seen, Hispanics are not as lazy about learning a second language as most of my fellow Caucasians. So the whole thing probably comes off as a virtue-signalling waste of time. I did learn Spanish when I was a kid though because I got frustrated not knowing how to talk to the Mexicans (they were all from Guatemala if you want to get specific) at the church my mother went to at the time. And that was a lot of fun. I sort of hate to see it go to waste, sort of like I hate not being able to use what I understand about the weather in any useful way. That's why I splatter both on a blog sometimes. 

Ay Caramba . . . looks like it's only self-indulgence that makes fried ice cream look like the kind of saintly meals people eat for Lent . . . or whenever it is that some people eat enough to stay alive but more-or-less undergo a fasting ritual. I know almost nothing about Lent except that Megyn Kelly kept saying she would give up swearing for it . . . which of course she never will . . . any more than Sofia Vergara will ever stop strutting around and getting guys to notice her tushie. 

And a certain level of humor is appropriate on a blog like this, but . . . I think it's time to call it a night. 

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Sunshine Returns, Then Unsettled Weather Midweek

FORECAST:

Monday (High 50, Low 37): Gradually decreasing clouds throughout the day. Seasonably cold. 

Tuesday (High 56, Low 27): Sunny. Seasonably cold. 

Wednesday (High 60, Low 36): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Thursday (High 60, Low 37): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

Friday (High 64, Low 46): Rain likely. 

Saturday (High 65, Low 48): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers. 

Sunday (High 66, Low 42): Sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Lunes (Máxima 50, Mínima 37): Nubes que disminuirán gradualmente durante el día. Frío estacional.

Martes (Máxima 56, Mínima 27): Soleado. Frío estacional.

Miércoles (Máxima 60, Mínima 36): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado. Es posible que haya lluvias aisladas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Jueves (Máxima 60, Mínima 37): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Viernes (Máxima 64, Mínima 46): Probabilidad de lluvia.

Sábado (Máxima 65, Mínima 48): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Domingo (Maxima 66, Mínima 42): Soleado.

NOTES:

SKYWARN classes are scheduled in-person and online ahead of the Spring severe weather season. These are free, so if you've never taken one and want to learn about severe weather, please, be our guest. I say "our", but I'm just a spotter. It's NWS employees that teach these classes. Although I've taken so many over the years, I'm very confident I could teach one if I was ever asked to. 

And here's a look back at that great snow we had on January 10th. Thanks to NWS Birmingham for taking the time to put that together. Sometimes lately they're the only office who is keeping up their website with really good archives. They used to all do that around here. Maybe it'll come back in fashion, but probably not, because the rocks are getting dumber these days. But we'll see. 

DISCUSSION:

Here at 7:35 PM we have light rain falling in Cullman. The temperature is 43 degrees. The dewpoint temperature is also 43, making the relative humidity 100%. Fun fact: It's usually raining when the humidity is 100%. The air is saturated, which is different than saturated fat, but I don't have time for a detailed meteorology lesson tonight. Plus I always strike out with nutrition, even trying to understand it. They can't make up their minds, you know? Now it's proteins that are going to save you, and breads are the great evil, starches. Before that, they had this food pyramid where the cornerstone was breads and starches, and you were supposed to watch how much meat or peanut butter you ate. And before that it was the four food groups. So that's a little consolation. Even the experts can't make up their minds. So suddenly I feel better about not knowing what to eat to slim myself down. Although I gotta' say, that covid diet of almost nothing but soup was effective. I lost about 13 pounds in a week or two. 

Where were we on the weather? Oh yeah, light rain, 43 degrees, 100% humidity in the great state of Cullman at this hour. Visibility is down to 8 miles in this cool rain tonight. Pressure is 30.26 inches and steady. And the wind is calm. 

We've had some fog with the rain the past few hours, and this visibility of 8 miles is actually an improvement. 

Our High today was 45 with a morning Low of 28. And overall it was a cloudy day off and on with periods of light rain. And we're back to light rain tonight. 





Which is reflected on the radar. Which I guess is why we call it reflectivity. Reflected. Reflectivity. Got a nice ring to it eh? Do I sound like I have tourette's? More than Ben Shapiro? Har har har . . . 

All right, but this is just a nice cold rain tonight. The lightning, as you can see on the satellite imagery, has stayed mainly down in Louisiana and parts of Mississippi. The air is really cool and stable up this way. 



And the weather setup is pretty clear, a cold front moving through the Southeast tonight into tomorrow morning. 



By Noon tomorrow we should be in the clear with high pressure already building back into the region from out West. We'll see clouds gradually decrease during the day. Doubt we even see a lingering shower in the morning. High should get up to about 50 degrees after a Low tonight/in the morning of about 37. Winds will turn back to North/Northwest but should stay light behind this front. It's not a really strong one. 



High pressure moving down around Mobile and in the Gulf of Greenland (hey, if the shrub can rename it, so can I) on Tuesday. And we'll be sunny with a High of about 55-56, Low about 27-28. Winds staying light. 



For Wednesday and Thursday, the deterministic model guidance has become just about worthless, and I don't feel like finding the best link to the ensembles that would give a better look at what's going on than deterministic model runs. As much as I love the National Weather Service, their website is often a shambles now, just a big disorganized mess. And I'm not as good at sorting through it all as I used to be. Everybody else seems to have gone to getting their graphics from WeatherBell and Pivotal Weather. But I love the NWS stuff when I actually have it all organized. It's just that they change things around and then leave broken links and half-functioning sites. And I tried to write somebody on one of those sites asking about stuff, specifically the National Blend of Models data and Model Output Statistics being phased out. And I never heard anything back. So I'm guessing that site had an outdated e-mail address to somebody who wasn't even over that department anymore, something like that. 

That's just life though. I used to think it was just fast food work, back when I worked at a burger palace allegedly known as Mickey D's to its friends. It was such chaos and so unprofessional, like one time a manager actually got on to me for not serving a piece of quarter meat I'd dropped on the floor and using the five-second rule. I threw it away, and she got mad. Joked about taking it out of my paycheck, didn't actually do it. And back then, I thought it was just fast food that was that way. But no, the chaos is everywhere. It's on college campuses, and . . . well . . . I'm not telling anybody anything they don't already know. At least it's usually harmless. The only times I get too bent out of shape about it is like, this woman I worked with at that fine dining establishment said she had a cousin who went to the hospital with a broken leg. (This was not in Cullman County, don't worry. I'm not gonna' say where it was.) They got careless and gave him the wrong kind of medicine, and he died. I think they gave him something that was meant for another patient with stomach problems. And all he needed was like pain medicine for his leg. He just innocently took the medicine without checking, and as poor Jessie put it, she would always laugh and say, "And he DIED . . . !"

Like she just couldn't believe it. This was no minor screw-up. They gave him the wrong medicine, and . . . goodbye Earl, as the Dixie Chicks would say. Out go the lights. 

Despite her trying to laugh it off, that's when it quits being amusing. And the National Weather Service has a mission statement to protect life and property. They take the "life" part very seriously. And for all my clowning and rambling here tonight, I'm being serious about that part. They work as hard as anybody I've ever seen to protect people's lives when the weather gets dangerous, even from something like a snow or ice storm. So I can forgive them for having disorganized web sites. Very easily. I cannot forgive AccuWeather for . . . more mortal sins than I care to enumerate at this time. I just love making new friends that way, like one of their people might read this and hear how often I sing their praises . . . 

Not totally joking. I think AccuWeather totally sucks. And the National Weather Service actually cares about what's important. They don't name winter storms. That's the Weather Channel. I think somebody there was dropping acid when they came up with that idea. As in lysergic acid. The old-fashioned stuff that isn't good enough for Joe Rogan, LSD instead of DMT. Or maybe somebody just got a bad hot dog one night and went nuts. But I've never understood naming winter storms. 

Believe it or not, I'm not on anything but tomato soup and barbecue pizza (the cheap kind, so maybe it had roadkill in it) tonight while I'm doing all this crazy rambling. A strange mood has come over me as I'm listening to Coyote J. Calhoun's Cemetery of Rock on 101.5 FM WJLX out of Jasper. Maybe it's his bad influence. But the music sure is great. 

I've rambled for so long, I better show those weather maps again. So nobody has to scroll back up to see them. 



Yeah, so, given the disorganized nature of model data on NWS websites and my feeling lazy tonight, I'm just using these WPC graphics for when things get unsettled on Wednesday and Thursday. A closed Low will be slowly working its way in our direction from out West. You saw it above in the raw GFS model output, already on its way. Now you don't see the pronounced pressure lines (isobars), but you can see the L for Low pressure system. A frontal boundary will be out in Texas and down into the Gulf of Greenland (yahahahahaha!) with the moisture getting close enough to bring us chances for rain, but staying pretty isolated. 

Both days we'll just have a 20% chance of rain and Highs near 60, Lows in the upper 30's. 

And the truth is, at some point I need to be the one who gets organized. And find one of the bigwigs at the National Weather Service and just ask them, straight out, where they moved a lot of the stuff I used to take for granted, I had neatly organized into a bunch of bookmarks. 



The GFS has a good handle on Friday, so I'm showing it again. I like seeing that closed Low on the 500 millibar map, even though it's a forecast map five days out from now. Rain is likely on Friday with a High in the mid-60's, Low in the mid-40's. 



Overall I think Saturday will be mostly sunny with a High in the mid-60's, Low in the upper 40's. These latest model runs are showing rapid clearing, here on the American model but also on the European model, not shown here. Some previous runs have shown lingering rain Saturday. I'll keep a 20% chance of rain in there in case anything lingers into the morning anyway. 



Then Sunday looks sunny, High in the mid-60's, Low of about 40 or so. 


And it now looks like we may see an average of about two inches of rain in the region over the next seven days. 

CHATTER:

I think I got most of the chatter over with and interrupted the forecast discussion with it. But another great Chuck Doswell memory from the Weatherbrains podcast. Somebody asked him who he was taking with him chasing these days. And I think the show was in 2012 or earlier. But he said, "My chase partner now is my wife." And people seemed surprised. So he said, "Well, she's a lot better to share a motel room with than Al Moller!" And Brian Peters was on there. He laughed and said he hoped Al was listening. So yeah, I guess that had to be way back in the day. That memory just randomly recurred tonight. 

I tried some calculus tonight and actually finished the lesson with only one mistake. First time in a long time trying something that challenging that might veer me back onto the right path with meteorology eventually. I need to review functions from just basic algebra though before I make much progress there. 

It occurs to me that the one thing that never changed about nutrition is that they still say vegetables are good for you. But who likes to eat those things? 

Nah, actually I like squash and turnip greens. And those are technically vegetables. So not all vegetables are bad. I'm learning tolerance. Diversity, equity, and inclusion might not have gone over so well in politics, but in food, it can work pretty good. Some foods are more equal than others though. And an ice cream sundae is better than any vegetable. Don't worry about its nutritional value. It's totally worth dying for. People kill themselves for far less all the time. I say satisfy your taste buds and live and die happy. 

(Goofy weather guy yanked off stage with a cane, by the neck.)

Some Rain Tomorrow Night, Then a Couple Clear/Seasonable Days

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 45, Low 27): Increasing clouds with isolated showers possible during the day. Then rain showers are likely at night. 

Monday (High 50, Low 35): Gradually decreasing clouds. An isolated, lingering shower is still possible in the morning. 

Tuesday (High 57, Low 31): Mostly sunny. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 61, Low 39): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. 

Thursday (High 51, Low 34): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers. 

Friday (High 53, Low 36): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers. 

Saturday (High 60, Low 42): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 45, Mínima 27): Nubosidad creciente con posibilidad de lluvias aisladas durante el día. Luego, es probable que haya lluvias por la noche.

Lunes (Máxima 50, Mínima 35): Nubosidad decreciente gradualmente. Todavía es posible que haya una lluvia aislada y persistente por la mañana.

Martes (Máxima 57, Mínima 31): Mayormente soleado.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 61, Mínima 39): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Jueves (Máxima 51, Mínima 34): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Viernes (Máxima 53, Mínima 36): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 60, Mínima 42): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvia.

NOTES:

The next SKYWARN class locally is going to be held Thursday January 30th at 6 PM at Northeast Alabama Community College in Rainsville. Of course click the link for more details and the rest of the schedule, and please remember that these classes are free. So anyone who wants to learn more about severe weather and help out the community with reliable reports can do so. Even if you are not able to make it to a physical class, there are online classes available as well. You are more than welcome to join us in the storm spotter network, always. 

The latest episode of Weatherbrains was a wonderful tribute to Dr. Charles ("Chuck") Doswell. If you've never heard of him, I'd encourage you to watch or listen to that show and also check out Chuck's personal website. He will be missed, but he sure left us a lot behind in the time that he had. Weatherbrains also did a recent show about Hurricane Helene that I haven't had a chance to check out yet. But that certainly was a historic storm with major impacts to people's lives. And I look forward to hearing the experts talk about it. 

DISCUSSION:




We had a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley, and it got a little breezy at times, winds shifting back around to the South and Southwest. And it sure was a cold morning for a lot of us. We had a High of 50 in Cullman, but we started the day at 18 degrees, or 17.6 for any nitpickers among you. They do have medicines to get rid of head lice these days, by the way. Not that I'd ever start out a forecast discussion with sarcasm. Jasper saw a High of 54 and Low of 14. Haleyville had a High of 51 and Low of 15, so I guess they were a numerical palindrome today, if such a thing exists. 

Huntsville saw more clouds up in far North Alabama and had a High of 51, Low of 19. It also clouded up in Nashville this evening, and they had a High of 53, Low of 21. 




And we are about to deal with another cold front. Looks like we'll get some rain out of this one. So let's take it day by day as usual. 



The question for tomorrow is the timing of the rain. The GFS has us dry at Noon, and the NAM generally agrees. 



Both models show rain showers being likely at night, but the NAM (often more accurate at this time range) is showing showers moving in by evening. 

We could see showers while there's still daylight tomorrow, but if so, I think they'll stay isolated, about a 1-in-5 chance for any one spot, or 20%. High should get to about 45 degrees, the Low tonight about 27. Then after dark, we can expect widespread rain showers across the area overnight. 



The GFS shows rapid clearing on Monday. 


The NAM shows a more gradual clearing, at least for parts of Northeast Alabama, here at Noon on Monday. 

So it'll be a day of gradually decreasing clouds. We could see an isolated shower left over, mainly in the morning. Winds should shift back to the Northwest behind the cold front, but they should stay light. Expecting a High near 50, a morning Low roughly around 35. 



Then Tuesday looks mostly sunny as high pressure rules our local weather again, with a High in the upper 50's and a Low of about 30 or so. 



A closed Low will approach in the latter half of next week and bring us some rain chances beginning on Wednesday. For now it looks like a 30% chance of rain is reasonable for Wednesday, partly cloudy skies overall, a High near 60, Low near 40. 



And the models haven't really ironed out this setup any better than a couple days ago when I last posted a forecast. I'm only showing the American GFS model here, but the European ECMWF doesn't offer many more clues. The National Weather Service in Huntsville mentioned they were mainly looking at ensembles. If this deterministic guidance for Thursday holds any water, I may end up blanketing Wednesday and Thursday with only a 20% chance of rain. 



Overall the scenario looks like some cooler, drier air trying to work in here on Thursday. But the models have sort of been inconsistent with what looks more likely to be an unsettled pattern. So I'm going to forecast the temperature change but keep a 20% chance of rain in for Thursday. I think keeping the rain chance at 30% for Wednesday is okay here. I'm talking it out as I go along. The High should be about 50 degrees, the Low dropping back to about the mid-30's. 



Frankly, the timing and placement of all these synoptic weather features is not clear in the extended period, days 4-7. For Thursday, the best forecast looks like almost a persistence one, a mix of sun and clouds, only a 20% chance of isolated showers, a High in the lower 50's and Low in the mid-30's. 



And then by Saturday, it does look like we'll get a pretty robust frontal passage with potential for heavier rain. We might have enough instability for some thunderstorms, but that's a close call. And with it being seven days out, really too soon to make the call. I almost want to just say rain is likely next Saturday, but given the inconsistency between the models/model runs with the system leading up to that point, it's probably better to just cap the rain chances off at 40-50% for now. High should be about 60 degrees, the Low in the lower 40's. 


Rainfall totals will average about one inch overall in the region over the next week. If you want to pick out your spot on the WPC map above, there are areas they think may get a little more or a little less, but with an unsettled setup like this, I wouldn't read too much into it. All of North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee is fair game for about an inch of rain over the next seven days IMHO. 

A Couple Sunny, Warm Days/Then Unsettled Pattern Later In Week

FORECAST: Monday (High 71, Low 42): Sunny. Warm. Tuesday (High 73, Low 50): Mostly sunny. Warm. Wednesday (High 75, Low 56): Partly cloudy w...