Monday, December 30, 2024

Plenty of Cold Air in the Cards

FORECAST:

New Year's Eve (High 58, Low 49): Partly to mostly sunny. Cold and windy.

New Year's Day (High 48, Low 36): Mostly sunny. Cold and breezy.

Thursday (High 50, Low 26): Sunny. Seasonably cold.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 50, Low 29): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of an isolated shower.

Saturday (High 44, Low 25): Sunny.

Sunday (High 48, Low 30): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Monday (High 46, Low 31): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers.

PRONÓSTICO:

Nochevieja (Máxima 58, Mínima 49): Parcialmente soleado. Frío y ventoso.

Día de Año Nuevo (Máxima 48, Mínima 36): Mayormente soleado. Frío y ventoso.

Jueves (Máxima 50, Mínima 26): Soleado. Frío estacional.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Viernes (Máxima 50, Mínima 29): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de algún chaparrón aislado.

Sábado (Máxima 44, Mínima 25): Soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 48, Mínima 30): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de chaparrones.

Lunes (Máxima 46, Mínima 31): Mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de chaparrones.

NOTES: 

A lot of those Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (and a few Tornado Warnings) did verify Saturday night, including a tornado that hit Athens and damaged some bookstores among other things. Fortunately have not heard of any injuries from Saturday night's storms. Important to note that the tornado in Athens did come out of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, while a Tornado Watch was in effect, and the National Weather Service had frequently told people that rotation was showing up in the storms at times and that they had a history of producing wind damage. So please remember to take a Severe Thunderstorm Warning seriously too, especially on a night like that. 

Nobody is sure how the middle of this month is going to play out exactly, but it does look bitterly cold beyond this basic seven-day-period, and setups like this have brought on winter storms in some years past. So best advice, keep in eye on it, monitor future forecasts. More importantly, prepare yourself and loved ones for the cold ahead of time, because even if we don't get any snow to worry about, we are not used to prolonged temperatures below freezing around here. I mean where all day and all night is below freezing, that's not usual for us around here. So please make reasonable plans accordingly. 

A lot of times the National Weather Service will tell you to remember all the P's: People, Pets, Plants, Pipes . . . all need protection when we have a serious cold blast that lasts a while. 

DISCUSSION:

After some overcast conditions this morning, it turned out to be mostly a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley. And we had a southerly breeze much of the day. The High in Cullman was 61 with a morning Low of 50. Jasper saw a High of 63 and Low of 45. Haleyville had a High of 61 and Low of 50. 

Huntsville had a High of 62 and Low of 50. Nashville had a High of 63 and a Low of 51. 





We still have a shorwave trough and system of low pressure moving through the Mississippi Valley tonight. The excitement from last night is long gone of course. 



Tomorrow that trough/Low will move up into the Ohio River Valley. 

This odd pattern will actually drag a weak warm front through the Tennessee River Valley tonight a dry cold front moves through the area tomorrow. 

So tonight into the morning we'll see breezy conditions continue, a Low temperature of about 49 or 50 degrees, could even see an isolated shower or two somewhere. 

And then tomorrow, a windy day with gusts up to 30 mph possible, easily gusts up to 15-20 mph much of the day. More sun than clouds overall, the High topping out in the upper 50's, about 58. 



Then Wednesday, first day of the New Year, 2025, we'll really be feeling that influx of Canadian air around here. Or we'll at least feel the beginnings of it, starting the day about 35-37 degrees and only warming to about 47-49 in the afternoon. Could still be a little breezy with wind gusts up to about 10-15 mph. Mostly sunny skies. 



Then Thursday just looks like a calm, sunny day with a High near 50 and a Low in the mid-to-upper-20's. 



Then we get a clipper sort of front on Friday, but it looks like limited moisture with it. Might include a minimal 20% chance of a shower here, but certainly no more than that. Most places stay dry. 

We'll see a High near 50, Low near 30. 



Saturday we'll feel more the effects behind that front, sunny day with a High in the lower 40's, Low in the mid-20's.



The GFS is keeping us dry at midday Sunday. 


And the ECWMF has a wet/stormy look. 

I don't think we'll get nearly warm enough to support any strong storms, but we could see some rain Sunday. For now I'm capping off the chance at 30%. High should get up near 50 or at least upper 40's the Low down near 30 again. 



And for Monday trying to navigate through the model guidance, I'll forecast a 40% chance of showers, a High in the mid-to-upper-40's, a Low of 30 or so. 

A few places could see snow flurries or even some light wintry precipitation Sunday into Monday, especially North of the Tennessee state line. It's too soon to know any specifics, and this might mix in with plain old rain, with the rain winning out over any light amounts of snow or ice that might try to creep in the mix. But it's something to watch in the extended. 



Peeking beyond the standard seven days for a forecast, our pattern looks really cold, some of the coldest air we've seen in a while, with several days we are likely to stay below freezing in a row. This would be a great setup for a winter storm to come along, not saying that's going to happen, just that if these trends verify, it'd be a good possibility around the middle of the month. 


Our rainfall totals over the next seven days should average about one inch. 

If you like reading these weather forecasts and updates and would like to see them more often, please feel free to buy me a coffee

CHATTER:

P.S. Forgot to post this originally, but here at 10:49 PM I'd like to throw in a kind word for President Jimmy Carter, who just finished life's long dreary day, as I think the old folk gospel song puts it. I know a lot of people trashed on him and made fun of him, especially for his naive comments to Playboy magazine way back in the day, but I guess I default to the simple old principle that you can judge a tree best by the fruit you see coming from it. And what I saw in his life and the life of his wife who also died recently, Rosalynn Carter, was a sincere desire to help people out, leave the world a better place than they found it. Almost no one actually does anything about the problems our country has with homelessness, and I just felt like saluting this man, not pretending he was perfect or anything, but just saying thank you for what he and his wife did, trying to build homes for people. Just that intention to live a decent life impresses me a lot more than the usual blowhard stuff about how I love JAY-sus more 'n the next feller, or MY JESUS is bigger and better than YORE JESUS! Got way too much of that in the world now, and I don't think it's going to settle down at all any time soon. Just taking a moment to appreciate somebody who as far as I could tell, meant it sincerely. I had an uncle like that who was a very gentle man. And these days I appreciate people like that more. They say the road to hell is paved with good intentions, but I'm not so sure. I love good intentions when I see them. More often I see obviously screwy intentions that will help create hell on earth, regardless of where the people carrying them out may end up in any afterlife. (I don't feel like I can judge that second part. Although a lot of people do try to.) So when I see good intentions, I don't automatically think it's a road to hell. I just appreciate 'em. 

And I appreciate the short life span of this virus I've had along with some members of my family. I'm not completely over it, but I am mostly. We think it was a covid strain, because one person tested (who was actually throwing up from it) had a faint second line on her home corona test. In the same breath, I got tested for two types of flu and the coronies, and my test showed up negative. Whatever it was, four of us had it with a terrible hacking cough and some fever and just . . . you don't want this crud, whatever it is. It hit us right in time for the Christmas we were trying to celebrate, and now everybody is on the mend. We finally did presents last night and played some card and board games. Which was great. Being back to Salem and Stormy, my feline friends, is also great. 

If you've read all of this, thanks, and may the new year treat you well. 

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