This feels like a crazy time to make a weather post. I was going to let this site die a natural death anyway, and I've been rather ill over the Christmas holiday, along with some loved ones I made a great effort to celebrate the holiday with. Our celebration has taken a back seat to trying to just sort of casually comfort each other through being sick. And hey, if you really put value on Christmas, that ain't so bad, is it? What's family really for, if not such an attitude . . . ?
Nonetheless, we do have a risk for organized severe storms coming up. And at first I thought it was looking marginal, would probably bust. The more I look at it, the more I think it should be taken seriously. So for any readers I might still have out there, please do take this seriously, to be on the safe side.
Confidence is growing that on Saturday afternoon through the night hours, the Tennessee Valley (North Alabama up into Southern Middle Tennessee) will have a basic Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, at least marginally severe hail, and perhaps even a few isolated tornadoes within this broad region.
The threat level graphics from the local NWS offices are slightly out of date, since I'm writing this after Midnight, when the new SPC forecasts have been posted. I showed those up top. And their formal discussion is below my informal discussion here.
One thing you'll notice is that many of us, including in places like Cullman up to Huntsville, are likely to be dealing with thunderstorms capable of becoming severe during the dark hours, could even be around Midnight or slightly after.
It is really important to have a plan and a reliable source of weather alerts during these events that include the overnight hours.
Do NOT rely on an outdoor siren as your primary source. That has gotten too many people killed for decades now.
What you need is Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone, so that you can wake up if a Tornado Warning is required for your area.
Even better than that is a NOAA Weather Radio or a paid phone service like Weathercall. But I understand that right after Christmas, if you don't already have that stuff, you probably can't afford to plop a big wad of money down for it.
So for most people, wireless emergency alerts are the way to go. Make sure phone is set in a mode to receive those alerts and that they will wake you up if need be. Especially if you've got sick folks in the house (like I mentioned we've been dealing with), sleep can seem all too sweet, and it's a major pain to wake up for a weather alert. But . . . if it's a Tornado Warning, you're going to need to wake up. It could save your life and/or the lives of people you love.
We all need to respect this severe weather risk, since it looks like things could get more organized with this system.
But for places like Jasper, back to Hamilton, Fayette, Vernon, Sulligent, down to the South and West, I would respect the threat more. That is where there is an Enhanced Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather, including a fairly significant threat for tornadoes to develop. When you see that hatching, that means there's a decent chance of seeing significant tornado damage within 10 miles of a given point. So I'm looking out for my Jasper folks here. They also have a higher threat for straight-line wind damage in storms, 30% instead of the basic 15% risk that the rest of us have from the SPC.
And we'll see how this plays out. I know the timing is inconvenient, and I also know that my family unit I mention is not the only one that's been sick lately. When I recently went to an urgent care, the doctor told me exactly what a long day it had been for him. He was cool about it, but he was obviously glad the day was ending.
But we have to respect this threat. It would be really foolish to blow it off.
So a quick review of tornado safety. And you can decide for yourself how seriously you want to take any Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. I would advise respecting them to at least some degree. How much, opinions vary. I try to err on the side of caution with them, but I know a lot of people don't like to.
We will almost certainly see a Tornado Watch issued at some point by this evening or tonight that includes most or all of the Tennessee Valley. That just lets you know that conditions are becoming favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop, that are capable of producing tornadoes.
But if and when you get a Tornado Warning with this system, don't fool around. Especially if you're in or near that Enhanced Risk area, but really, don't fool around even if you're in the Slight Risk (misleading term sometimes . . . as long as you understand it's a Level 2 out of 5 Risk, you're good) area.
You cannot stay in a mobile home. They offer no protection against tornadoes and are even more dangerous to stay in than if you just found a low spot or a flat spot to lie down in outside.
So make plans to be in a sturdy house that is built down on the ground, not up off the ground like a mobile home. An apartment building is also good.
In that site-built structure:
* Stay away from windows.
* Get to the lowest floor.
* Try to be in a small room - bathroom, closet, or hallway.
* Make that room as near the center of the building as you can.
* If you have time, cover your body from falling or flying debris.
So even in a basement, you might consider getting up under something sturdy like a desk, workbench, table, or set of stairs.
You might grab a pillow or blanket to cover your body, especially shield your head and neck. And the absolute best is probably a safety helmet. If you've got an old bike helmet or football helmet, get it ready in case you were to need to shelter from a tornado during this event.
Might seem like a small point, but you also need to wear your sturdiest set of shoes or boots. Because if you're in a state of mental shock after a bad storm (tornado or other damage) hits, you could accidentally walk across sharp things without realizing it. This happens rarely, but I'm trying to overprepare you.
Parts of Central and Southern Mississippi especially could see a full-blown tornado outbreak from this. Up our way, it is more of a routine risk, but I think it is still well worth respecting. And like I say, places like Jasper and Hamilton in North Alabama may find themselves in more of the hot zone for a more substantial tornado/damaging wind threat. So especially there, gotta' take this seriously.
Everybody stay safe here at year's end.
Just have that reliable way to get alerts, and have that safety plan in case you need it.
And if you know somebody in your family or circle of friends who doesn't have a safe place to go, please consider offering them a safer place if you can. Especially if they live in a mobile home, that can be a life-threatening situation for an evening/night like we have coming up. They might not be able to get the warning and get to a public shelter in time. So you can "be the hero" as NWS Birmingham often says. Even somebody who lives on a top-floor apartment might need a better place to spend the night if they don't know their neighbors down on the ground floor.
If anybody's stuck in a college dorm, didn't have anywhere to go for Christmas, I feel ya', I've been there. Those buildings are usually very sturdy, but you need to get the alert reliably and do the right things if severe weather threatens.
And since this post is very informal, I'll also say, if you're so sick that you're reading this from a hospital, don't sweat it. Those buildings are very strong, and especially after 2011, the staff is going to take really good care of you on any day that severe weather threatens. Or any night.
6:54 PM - Not much change in the thinking. They have had a rough day through East Texas, Louisiana, into Misssissippi. I remember seeing some really significant tornado damage, think it was from MS earlier, but I don't remember in detail.
The main point is that this activity is getting close to North Alabama/Southern Tennessee within the next 2-3 hours. And we'll have some severe thunderstorm risk overnight. We've had a lot of rain to stabilize the air, so especially up around Huntsville and into Tennessee, some folks might catch a lucky break and just see some gusty winds. But really we all need to remain alert in case of any thunderstorms that reach severe limits within or ahead of this squall line you can see back in Mississippi (producing numerous severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings there still). And we could see isolated tornadoes in our region. The tornado threat is not nearly what it has been for Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas earlier today, but we still have a low-end risk for isolated tornadoes. And we do need to respect it.
7:04 PM - And I see that the SPC is getting ready to issue a new Tornado Watch. That will probably come out around 8:30 or 9 PM CST. Will start a new post for it.
SPC AC 280559
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND
FAR WESTERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large
hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward
into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states.
Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected.
...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States...
A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern
Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base
of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a
warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered
thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the
morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent
rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail
will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit
region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east
Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected
to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have
potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and
tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as
this activity increases in coverage.
Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is
expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from
southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along
and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis
will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered
discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist
sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving
east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP
forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from
central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level
lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot
range. This environment will support supercell development, with a
potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail.
Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level
jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show
backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km
storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be
favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to
move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the
mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface
dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet
should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of
these will be possible.
The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move
quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the
afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe
wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more
intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe
storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region.
Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the
line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the
Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded
supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that
form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is
expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the
overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to
continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee
and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move
into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by
the end of the period.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024
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