That Weather Blog: Some Rain Off and On, a Cooldown on the Way Next Week

FORECAST:

Friday (High 78, Low 63): Mostly sunny. Somewhat warm.

Saturday (High 76, Low 64): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday (High 72, Low 63): Rain likely. Turning cooler.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Veterans Day (High 73, Low 57): Becoming mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a leftover shower.

Tuesday (High 75, Low 47): Sunny.

Wednesday (High 74, Low 48): Increasing clouds with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 65, Low 49): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a leftover shower.

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 78, Mínima 63): Mayormente soleado. En tanto cálido.

Sábado (Máxima 76, Minima 64): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 72, Mínima 63): Probabilidad de lluvia. Volviéndose más fresco.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Día de los Veteranos (Máxima 73, Mínima 57): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de una lluvia residual.

Martes (Máxima 75, Mínima 47): Soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 74, Mínima 48): Nubosidad creciente con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 65, Mínima 49): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de una lluvia residual.

NOTES:

The National Weather Service in Nashville is doing Weather 101 classes again. They are free, so if you know anybody who would like to learn more about the weather, please let them know about these.

We are in a moderate drought, and this rain we've got coming should help.

Here are some of those "fall in love with science" resources that nobody really cares about. But there might be one out of ten people that really care about learning about science, and I felt like an extra link this time, so there ya' go. And I appreciate that one person out of ten, if you exist. Here's a good book about hurricanes, for this fabled person. Somebody needs to write a book including this year's season.

The Climate Prediction Center thinks that La Nina will make this Winter warmer and drier down here, but some drought relief up North in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

DISCUSSION:

It was a mostly overcast day in the Tennessee Valley, though the clouds came and went for many of us. Winds were generally light from the North/Northeast. The High in Cullman was 79, and the Low was 66. The High in Jasper was 79 after a morning Low of 63. Haleyville had a bit of fog this morning, not saying the other sites didn't, it just jumped out at me skimming over Haleyville's history of weather today. They had a High of 80 and a Low of 63. Huntsville had a High of 84 and Low of 68. And it was so foggy and overcast today in Nashville that they only got up to 69 degrees for the High, and the current temperature of 63 around 7 PM is the Low so far for today.

They are on the other side of that front which has stalled out over about the Northwest corner of Alabama through Southern Middle Tennessee because of it running into the ridge of high pressure that you now see slowly drifting off into the Atlantic. So that is our first main weather feature, that front finally making some headway, moving into the state of Alabama a little, into Tennessee quite a bit. And the other main feature is that hurricane, Hurricane Rafael, in the Gulf of Mexico.

As these weather systems get a move-on, we'll have some rain chances this weekend. In fact, on Sunday there will be a risk for flash flooding in Mississippi, Louisiana, far Northwest Alabama, and Western Tennessee. But most of us will just see general rain and thunderstorms, and a lot of us may not see all that much rain. But we'll take what we can get. It has been a while since we've had much meaningful rain, and a lot of times, droughts this time of year tend to end with a bang, like a really bad storm system. This one looks like it is willing to resolve itself in more of an easygoing way, and I don't know about you, but I'm not going to complain about that.

Something is messed up about the GFS model graphics tonight, so I guess I'll just explain it with regular weather maps this time. Even though I was going to be more thorough and show all the raw model guidance. Can't help it when there's a glitch in the technology on the other end of things.

Going to give kind of a wide range of temperature for tomorrow, more than usual, the High temperature about 76-80 range, the Low about 60-64 tonight/in the morning. Skies should be mostly sunny.

Then for Saturday, High in the mid-70's because of the clouds/rain chances, the Low in the lower 60's. Will go with a 40% chance of rain. There could be an isolated thunderstorm in there too.

Then rain is likely on Sunday, High about 70 or so, Low about 60 or so, as the front gets moving through the region.

We won't see the serious shot of cooler, drier air until Monday and Tuesday though. Monday is Veterans Day, and of course I salute anybody who has weathered the storms of warfare. It looks like we might see an isolated shower or two hanging around in the morning, enough to keep a 20% chance of rain in there. But most of the day should be dry with more sunshine than clouds. Probably breezy too from the frontal passage. The High should be in the lower 70's and the Low in the upper 50's.

Then Tuesday it looks like we'll be sunny and start the morning really dry and cooler, the Low dipping back into the upper 40's. And then we'll warm to at least the lower 70's by afternoon, maybe mid-70's.

Then Wednesday of next week, you see we have another cold front moving through the Plains and Midwest. This will need to be monitored for severe weather potential out that way. They have had it rough out there lately, mainly in Oklahoma, best I recall, had a fairly damaging tornado hit Southeastern Oklahoma City within about the past week. Wednesday is a tricky day around here, the timing may work out so that most or all of the day is dry, but then some rain moving in at night. Will keep rain chance at 20-30% bracket for now until the timing becomes clearer for a future forecast. The High should be in the lower 70's and the Low in the upper 40's.

And actually the timing of this looks like we'll get a frontal passage and some dry air for next Thursday. Any rain we get would likely come in the morning if this timing verifies.

So here's how I'm going to break it down. Wednesday gets a 40% chance of rain, even though most or all it is likely to come at night. And Thursday only gets a 20% chance of rain, and if you care enough to read the discussion here, you understand it will probably all come in the morning, the leftovers of this system. That's how things are looking.

The High temperature on Thursday should drop to about 65 behind this front, and the morning Low should be in the upper 40's again, might make it to about 50 with the moisture overnight/less radiational cooling. But Wednesday night looks like a cool rain for the people who get the rain.

It looks like the ECMWF, the European global forecast model, may have nailed Hurricane Rafael, as it has many tropical systems over the years. I seem to remember it doing great with Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Anyway, this thing is forecast to stay well South of the Gulf Coast and weaken down there. Might not survive past next Tuesday, may not even make it into Mexico at tropical storm strength. All the models expected it to weaken in the Gulf because of vertical wind shear and dry air, but the European model was an outlier at first in taking it on this much more southerly track.

Rainfall totals will probably be between 1-2 inches for this forecast period, the heavier amounts more likely over Northwest Alabama up into West Central Tennessee and of course back into Western Tennessee and over Mississippi.