Some Rain and Then Some Colder Air Next Week

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 70, Low 43): Mostly sunny. Patchy fog possible in the morning. 

Monday (High 72, Low 48): Partly cloudy and breezy during the day. Scattered showers are possible late at night.

Tuesday (High 70, Low 61): Overcast and breezy with periods of rain showers likely. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 63, Low 54): Mostly sunny. 

Thursday (High 50, Low 35): Mostly sunny. 

Friday (High 53, Low 33): Mostly sunny. 

Saturday (High 60, Low 34): Sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 70, Mínima 43): Mayormente soleado. Posible neblina dispersa por la mañana.

Lunes (Máxima 72, Mínima 48): Parcialmente nublado y ventoso durante el día. Posibles lluvias dispersas por la noche.

Martes (Máxima 70, Mínima 61): Nublado y ventoso con períodos de lluvia probables. También es posible una o dos tormentas eléctricas aisladas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 63, Mínima 54): Mayormente soleado.

Jueves (Máxima 50, Mínima 35): Mayormente soleado.

Viernes (Máxima 53, Mínima 33): Mayormente soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 60, Mínima 34): Soleado.

NOTES:

The National Weather Service in Nashville is holding Weather 101 classes, free to take online. Anyone with an interest in learning more about meteorology is strongly encouraged to try one out. If you know somebody who would enjoy this, please let them know, spread the word. Thanks to the fine folks at that office for what they do. 

Yesterday was the 35-year-anniversary of the infamous 1989 Airport Road Tornado in Huntsville. This was an unusually violent tornado, rated F-4, which killed and injured many people. It is a good reminder that technology is not perfect. There was no Tornado Warning in effect when the thing originally touched down on Redstone Arsenal, but there had been a Tornado Watch in effect on a day advertised as High-Risk for severe weather, and there was also a Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect. Doppler radar was just becoming operational in the world, and we did not have it in Alabama by then. They were just looking at reflectivity, not seeing the winds, the velocity couplets we've come to take for granted. (We now have dual-polarization radar.) When that tornado touched down, I remember hearing Bob Baron describe (at a lecture in person), the National Weather Service forecaster went "live" on NOAA Weather Radio and called a Tornado Warning for Huntsville. I don't think they've ever had to do that before or since. WHNT-19 put together a good piece on it at the time. And there are lots of other YouTube videos about it. As a side note, this is why Bob Baron devoted his life to better weather detection technology after he retired from broadcasting. 

The latest episode of Weatherbrains was excellent and featured an interview with John Gordon, a man who, along with Bud Cramer, was largely responsible for getting the Huntsville area (which includes most of North Alabama, includes Cullman County) a better NWS forecast office than we'd ever had before. I'm not sure who all was involved, but thanks to all of you. It was ridiculous for Birmingham to have to shoulder that many counties, all the way up to the Tennessee line, through the 1990's. Budget limitations and red tape are real things. Thank goodness when they can be overcome in favor of more important things. 

DISCUSSION:

Skies were mostly sunny in the Tennessee Valley today with some patchy fog in the morning. The High in Cullman was 69, and the Low was 39. The High in Huntsville was 65 after a morning Low of 41. And Nashville saw a High of 68 after a morning Low of 36. So it was a little nippy early today considering the unusually warm Fall season we've had so far. Our weather pattern is finally changing. 

For now we are under a ridge of high pressure, and we have a frontal system stretching from the Plains up through the Upper Midwest. That cold front has some decent snow behind it, mainly West of the Rockies. 

Tomorrow that high pressure system will be moving to the East toward the Atlantic. We should stay sunny here with a High near 70, the Low tonight/tomorrow morning in the lower 40's, about 43. 

On Monday as the high pressure system moves further into the ocean and that cold front moves through the Plains, we'll stay mostly sunny with a High near 72-73 and a Low rebounding to the upper 40's, about 47-48. The southerly winds will be picking up. 

Tuesday we'll see some rain around here. Some of it will probably start Monday night. At this point it looks reasonable to forecast "likely" rain chances, 60% or above. The GFS is showing 60-70% chances on MOS. We could have an isolated thunderstorm in there somewhere, but instability is looking too weak for any organized stronger storms, and the overall setup just does not look favorable for it either. High should be near 70, Low near 60. 

And the latest guidance is showing us clearing out for the day Wednesday. This is the GFS, but the ECMWF agrees with this faster timing. May still be a little breezy behind this front. Skies should be mostly sunny with a High in the lower 60's and a Low in the low-to-mid-50's. 

Then the seriously colder air behind this front kicks in for Thursday, with mostly sunny skies and a High near 50, Low in the morning only down in the mid-30's. Would not be surprised if some of us saw lower 30's, around freezing mark, particularly along and North of the Tennessee border. 

Friday looks like another mostly sunny and cold day, with the High only making it up to the lower 50's, the morning Low down in the lower 30's. Some places could see mid-30's, but I'm leaning toward lower 30's for most of us. 

Stronger high pressure approaches the region on Saturday from the Southwest, and we should see sunny skies and a High near 60, Low in the mid-30's again. 

Beyond that, high pressure will continue to dominate the region going into the following week, with Highs climbing back into the 60's and Lows rebounding into the 40's. The pattern is so dynamic this time of year that I'm going to hold off on an actual 10-day-outlook this time. But mentioning a general trend is fine. 

Tropical Storm Sara is poor organized at this point, and it is expected to dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday morning. Up until then, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect, and there is a likelihood of flash flooding and mudslides in Northern Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, Eastern Guatemala, Western Nicaragua. and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo. (And you thought we had some weird-sounding places around here?) Even the Bay Islands may see some tropical storm impacts from this. And while I don't want to overly alarm anyone, we do have to consider that the mountainous terrain down there could make any flooding issues more dangerous. Hopefully nothing like the people in East Tennessee and North Carolina had to deal with a month or two ago. But those mudslides and floods can become life-threatening situations, so if you know anybody down there, even for a vacation, it would be a good idea to make sure they are aware of the situation. 

It is not expected to redevelop in the Gulf of Mexico into anything tropical. In my last forecast, I was just being overly cautious. We have had a wild ride of this hurricane season. But things do tend to wind down in November, especially late November. And this is our last month of hurricane season. 

A lot of our severe weather around here has happened in the month of November (and of course in our core months of March, April, and May), but with this cold front, it is looking like tomorrow and Monday, any stronger storms will stay well out to our West, mainly out in Texas. And even on Tuesday/Tuesday night, conditions look favorable for general rain and maybe a few isolated thunderstorms here. If anybody gets a stronger storm, it should be an isolated event, and overall it looks like severe weather is not going to be a concern for North Alabama or Southern Middle Tennessee. 

Our rainfall totals should average about 0.25-0.5 inch on the Tennessee side, more like 0.5-1 inch on the Alabama side for the next week. And we do need this rain. Frankly I feel some gratitude for us being able to get it without a major storm system, like we have in some previous years, this time of year. 

(Buy Me a Coffee)

While the weather is looking calmer, I'm taking a break from doing this blog indefinitely.