Low Rain Chances and a Cooldown by End of Week, Watching Tropics

Monday (High 76, Low 60): Partly cloudy. Breezy. 

Election Day (High 77, Low 61): Partly cloudy and breezy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly at night. 

Wednesday (High 79, Low 62): Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers or a thunderstorm are still possible. 

Thursday (High 78, Low 61): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower.

Friday (High 75, Low 59): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower.

Saturday (High 73, Low 56): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Sunday (High 70, Low 54): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Lunes (Máxima 76, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado. Ventoso.

Día de Elección (Máxima 77, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado y ventoso. Posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas, principalmente por la noche.

Miércoles (Máxima 79, Mínima 62): Parcialmente nublado a mayormente nublado. Aún es posible que haya lluvias o tormentas eléctricas aisladas.

Jueves (Máxima 78, Mínima 61): Parcialmente soleado a mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Viernes (Máxima 75, Mínima 59): Parcialmente soleado a mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 73, Mínima 56): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Domingo (Máxima 70, Mínima 54): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

We had a variably cloudy and breezy day in the Tennessee Valley today. It is mostly cloudy this evening in Cullman, and thanks to the glorious return of Central Standard Time (which hopefully you slept through at 2 AM this morning), it is already dark here at 5:24 PM CST. Our winds are generally out of the South/Southeast in this weather pattern. The High in Cullman today was 79 after a morning Low of 61. So here we are, the third of November, and a reasonable person might ask: Is Fall ever actually going to get here?

We may only have clouds around here, but the weather is rowdy out in the Plains, out West. You can see tornado warnings, severe thunderstorm warnings, and flash flood warnings, mainly focused there in Southern Oklahoma. And there is a large cluster of thunderbumpers working their way through Arkansas as well. 

Yesterday they had several supercell thunderstorms in Oklahoma and Texas that showed tornado debris signatures on radar. And I guess the night is still young for today . . . hey but by the way, they had a video of a tornado at Lea, New Mexico yesterday. You don't see that every day, a tornado in New Mexico. I guess that old country song is true, about how it's always five o' clock somewhere. Under the right conditions, you can get funky weather just about anywhere in the world. 

So far today, the reports have been of damaging straight line winds, and most seem like the kinds that would "only" take out some trees or power lines. But that can be serious enough. The report that got my attention was that at Marietta, Oklahoma, a box truck semi was blown over. No injuries reported with that, which is a pleasant surprise. Any severe thunderstorm (or worse, tornado) warnings out that way, I would respect them, especially as tough as storms can be to confirm after dark. You just have to trust the radar and get to a safe place. And wait for the next day's light to worry about who got a tornado versus who got straight-line wind damage, which warnings will verify or not. 

Their tornado watch goes until 8 PM tonight. 

And the best chance of storms firing up and becoming severe is along that stalled frontal boundary. Their atmosphere is uncapped, and the storms are just popping like crazy, have formed a cluster. An isolated supercell or two is possible out there, but for the most part, looks like their storm mode is "cluster" tonight. 

That's just fun to look at. 

So we have upper-level ridging here in the Southeast. And the Plains are under the influence of an upper-level trough, with storms firing up along and North of that front. Sometimes the weather maps are not up-to-the-minute with exactly where the lines of a front, even a stationary front (one that's barely moving) should be drawn. Notice here the front is further South than in the mesoscale discussion graphic I posted for Oklahoma above. Around here, the frontal boundary is about down to Dothan, almost to Mobile. This is the front that brought us some showers Halloween night. Which I found atmospheric even though I was inside watching a great old horror movie. Which I could name but won't . . . because I'm trying to be mysterious even though Halloween's over. 

Nah actually I just need to get on with the weather. The high pressure system influencing our weather is way up there around the Great Lakes. 

The weather actually looks interesting. That severe thunderstorm threat as well as a flash flooding threat will persist through tomorrow as that cold front propagates to the East. Places like Colorado, along and West of the Rocky Mountains, will be dealing with some snow and mixed wintry precipitation over the next couple days. And we still have to watch that tropical depression that formed today in the Caribbean Sea. It is expected to become a hurricane before crossing the island of Cuba, and then will likely weaken to a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. We'll get to looking more closely at that in just a bit. Let's take a look at our local weather first. This cold front will bring us some chances for showers and thunderstorms on Election Day, probably Tuesday night though, after the polls have closed. I think they close at 7 PM. They just look like general thunderstorms and some beneficial rain. We may not even get all that much rain, but any little bit helps right now. Most of us around here are in a moderate drought right now. Huntsville is under severe drought conditions though, and same goes for parts of Southern Middle Tennessee. 

Tomorrow will be another day where it's a mix of sun and clouds, breezy, a High temperature of about 75 or 76, a Low tonight near 60. The clouds and winds will prevent any great radiational cooling tonight. 

Tuesday also looks partly cloudy and breezy, with winds still gusting up to 20 mph or so. And really, the rain chances are looking less. The whole day probably stays dry around here, and even in the evening/night hours, the chance of any one spot getting a rain shower or a thunderstorm look about 30%, about a 1-in-3 chance, or if you want to get technical, a 3 out of 10 chance. High temperature on Tuesday should be in the mid-to-upper-70's, the Low near 60 again. 

Then for Wednesday, going to trim rain chance to 20%, which is about a 1-in-5 chance, about the same as you'd have on a typical summer day. We shouldn't be as breezy as the pressure gradient in our region won't be as tight. High temperature near 80, Low of about 60 or so. 

Can keep the rain chance at 20% for Thursday, High in upper 70's, Low in lower 60's. 

Then for Friday, that cold front pushes through the region, down to about Mobile, leaving us with a cooler airmass moving in behind it. High should only get to the mid-70's, the Low near 60 or maybe upper 50's for some of us. Rain chance only 20%. 

Then next weekend is interesting too as another cold front quickly comes our way Saturday and Sunday. 

For Saturday only going to predict a 30% chance of rain, High in the lower 70's and Low temperature in the mid/upper 50's. 

Sunday will go with a 40% chance of rain, High near 70 and Low in the mid-50's. 

Actually after looking back over it, I think a 30% chance of rain is enough for both days. The pattern looks unsettled, not like a big rain event either day really. 

November can often bring us some severe weather, and these droughts often end with a bang. But there are no signs of any organized severe thunderstorms around here any time soon. These look to be just general rain and thunderstorms, and the people who get some rain will probably be glad for the novelty. 

And I misspoke above when I referred to this as a tropical depression. This is being called Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen for now. That disturbance in the Caribbean has developed a closed center, but the convection is not organized and deep enough to call it a tropical depression yet. 

Nonetheless, based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and numerical computer model forecasts, a Tropical Storm Warning has already been issued for the Island of Jamaica and a Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands. 

By late Tuesday or early Wednesday, this is expected to be at hurricane strength before it crosses the Western parts of Cuba. 

The track of this thing once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico is highly uncertain, and so is the intensity. The models are all over the place with it, but there may be enough wind shear/dry air in the Gulf to weaken this and keep it at tropical storm strength. I would just be careful and not underestimate this thing. Since the waters have been way too warm this year, and lots of systems have intensified rapidly. People in the Florida Keys should especially be watching this to be on the safe side, and of course people in Cuba, mainly Western Cuba, should be taking it seriously. It is expected to be a hurricane by the time it crosses Western Cuba. As of right now, it looks most likely that it will be a tropical storm again in the Gulf of Mexico. So wherever it ends up may get less impacts than if it were a hurricane. However, I say again, let's be careful, considering the kind of season we've already had. Might want to err on the side of caution and keep in mind that a lot can change in a few days. People along the Gulf Coast would be well-advised to monitor all the latest forecasts, in case this thing were to try to throw us a curveball. 

And really, even a tropical storm can bring its hazards, that are worth taking reasonably seriously. High winds, heavy rain, and a low potential for an isolated tornado . . . that's worth paying attention to. For whoever gets hit with such hazards. And down there in Jamaica and Cuba, they have to look out for mudslides, something we don't have such a problem with up this way. It is a total wild card whether we see any tropical moisture from this in the long-term. By next weekend or so, we just might. But there is not enough confidence to put that into a forecast yet. Let's all just watch this thing and what the latest observations are, what the computer models do with it. And take it one day at a time. 

Assuming we don't get anything tropical up this way, then for the next seven days, our rainfall amounts should generally stay between a half-inch and one inch. 

(Buy Me a Coffee)

Not related to weather, but if you have a perverse sense of humor and need a good laugh, check out Tucker Carlson's experience with a spook that he recounted on video recently. I can't be the only one who finds this somewhat Freudian. I noticed that Rick and Bubba even had a laugh about it and wondered if he didn't just get clawed up by the dogs, and why a guy would not wake up his wife after such an experience, but just walk outside in his drawers. 

It takes all kinds to make a world. And that's why you're reading this. 

Great to hear the best radio show on the planet back online tonight. RIP Brett who got it back on the air. 

Only Alice Cooper can compare, since he does mix it up with new rock on his show. The classics do take on new life on this one though.