FORECAST:
Election Day (High 77, Low 60): Partly to mostly sunny and breezy with isolated showers possible, mainly at night. Raining cats and barking dogs that eat the polls and everything else in sight, including sinkhole countries and all the boogeymen that survived Halloween.
Wednesday (High 78, Low 62): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Thursday (High 79, Low 61): Partly cloudy. Warm.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Friday (High 75, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.
Saturday (High 73, Low 61): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.
Sunday (High 70, Low 56): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain.
Veterans Day (High 70, Low 55): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a lingering shower.
PRONÓSTICO:
Día de Elección (Máxima 77, Mínima 60): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado y ventoso. Es posible que haya lluvias aisladas o tormentas eléctricas, principalmente por la noche.
Miércoles (Máxima 78, Mínima 62): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que haya lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.
Jueves (Máxima 79, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado. Cálido.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Viernes (Máxima 75, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Sábado (Máxima 73, Mínima 61): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Domingo (Máxima 70, Mínima 56): Mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvia.
Día de los Veteranos (Máxima 70, Mínima 55): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de una lluvia persistente.
DISCUSSION:
They sure did have some whirlyjigs out there in Oklahoma between yesterday and today though.
WEATHER WARFARE HITS OKLAHOMA ⚠️ A powerful tornado struck eastern Oklahoma City early Sunday, November 3, 2024, causing significant damage. The storm downed power lines, destroyed homes, and hurled trucks into buildings. The National Weather Service confirmed at least EF-2… pic.twitter.com/pbcPFHcUeF
— Kristy Tallman (@KristyTallman) November 3, 2024
One particularly damaging tornado hit Southeastern parts of Oklahoma City overnight.
It will take a while to properly assess that since they've had more severe weather ongoing today.
Ignore the "weather warfare" part of that tweet. I just picked it for the good choice of pics and video. Only the Salem cat controls any of the weather. HAARP only wishes they could hang with him. The truly elite are hidden in plain sight.
On second thought, if you are inclined towards being paranoid, and actually enjoy it, please . . . be our guest. Who am I to disagree?
Most of the day tomorrow should be dry around here, so anybody who's going out to vote, I mean I figure it's kind of like a football game, nobody's going to stay home even if the weather is awful. But it is not looking awful. Just partly to mostly sunny skies, breezy again, winds from the South/Southeast, the High temperature about 77, the Low tonight about 60.
The GFS does bring some showers in here ahead of that front by 6 PM tomorrow, an hour before the polls close.
But the NAM keeps us dry all the way through Midnight, going into Wednesday morning. And it can be more reliable at this time range. Only going to include a 20% chance of rain tomorrow night.
Then on Wednesday I think the models are showing enough moisture to justify a 30% chance of rain. Should have a High in the upper 70's, Low in the lower 60's. The gusty winds should die down as the movement of the synoptic scale weather systems have done away with our tight pressure gradient.
And we're definitely going to have to watch the progress of Tropical Cyclone Rafael. You can't miss it on the GFS guidance for Thursday at Noon here. We're back to where 18Z means Noon since we're back on Central Time. I dunno why we don't just stick with that all year round. I had a cat one time who meowed to wake people up, and she had to recalibrate every year when the time changed. She'd get confused and yowl an hour early at first. Besides, who needs more daylight? I like the dark . . . I love these evenings already.
Eh just being contrary. I see all these people wanting Daylight Time all year long, and I'm like nooope, that's totally backwards.
And next Friday is when the wild card stuff really starts. Because the GFS wants to bring TC Rafael up in our general direction. And that would bring us some rain chances, more than we've seen in a while.
And it's important to realize the other main global model, the ECMWF, shows this thing located much farther South in the Gulf of Mexico, and has it moving in a westerly direction, not moving northward like the GFS is showing.
The European tends to be pretty reliable at this time range, and my personal opinion is that it's often handled tropical systems better than any of the other models.
So things are dicey, but I'm definitely paying attention to the Euro solution here.
It looks like a High temperature in the mid-70's and a Low near 60 for Friday. Rain chances . . . will go with 20% for now.
Then on Saturday the GFS has us covered up in rain, which we do need . . .
While the ECMWF continues to show it moving toward Mexico and not bringing us any rain at all.
But we do have another cold front coming at us either way. So let's break it down in those terms.
Looks like a High in the lower 70's on Saturday, Low of 60 or so. Rain chance, I'm going with 30% for now, since these model differences are unresolved, and I trust the European solution slightly more.
Sunday it looks like a High near 70, Low in the mid-to-upper-50's. And there I'll go with a rain chance of 40% because even if the tropical cyclone does not affect us, the moisture will be moving in ahead of that cold front.
And then that Monday is actually Veterans Day, a week from today. It used to be called Armistice Day. But the idea of armistice is exceedingly unpopular now. Peeps be wantin' anything but a truce. And actually honoring veterans has never caught on . . . so as you'd notice. But what the hell . . . we do technically have this holiday. Even if it seems like most vets are suffering from shellshock (PTSD) without access to good treatment, some of them struggling to eat and keep a roof over their heads . . . eh but nobody cares about that . . . so let's just talk about the weather for that day . . . when we'll pretend we care about 'em one day out of the year, when it's really just an excuse for some people to get off work or school. How's that sound . . . yeah . . . the weather . . . looks like a High near 70, Low in the mid-50's, and only a low chance (about 20%) of isolated showers lingering. So if you're a veteran living under a bridge using what bottled beverages you can afford to soothe what's left of your nerves . . . let that be a source of comfort to you . . . at least you probably won't get rained on that day . . . or if so, it won't be much.
Whatever rain we do get during this forecast period will help our drought conditions, which are moderate for most of us, but more severe up around Huntsville.
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Tropical Storm Rafael is keeping things interesting. Not that the mainstream news is boring right now. Just overwhelming. I was really glad to see James Spann doing Weatherbrains tonight, even though it was mostly just a lot of yacking about the business side of news media and broadcast meteorology. It did have its better moments. It got me away from listening to Bill Maher argue with Ben Shapiro. Which I have to say, given their opposite styles of speaking, was kind of entertaining. But I just don't wanna' hear any more of it right now. So that's why I say, thank the Lord for these bits of divine wind, that keep things interesting in a different way.
So here's the basics:
We have a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica.
Sustained winds are currently at 45 mph with this thing. So prepare for typical tropical storm hazards. Mudslides can be a real problem down there.
The Cayman Islands are under a Hurricane Warning. And tomorrow night things will get rough there, including potential for a pretty stout storm surge. People there need to be prepared for hurricane impacts ahead of time.
Next in line is Cuba.
And while I was writing this, Western parts of Cuba were upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. Just as I was getting ready to mention they were under a Hurricane Watch. It is a warning there. Then as you go further to the East in the country, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Far Eastern Cuba is escaping any advisories, but before you get over that far East, you've got parts of Eastern Cuba under a Tropical Storm Watch.
The Cuban provinces under a Hurricane Warning are Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
The Tropical Storm Warning includes the provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila.
Those are the areas that need to take this most seriously as this thing approaches Cuba on Wednesday.
Of course anybody over in the Tropical Storm Watch also needs to use some degree of caution.
Then Wednesday and Wednesday night, the lower to middle Florida Keys are under a Tropical Storm Watch as this thing moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
That's from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge.
Also Dry Tortuga.
And since I'm looking at the Tropical Storm Watches, the Cuban provinces under that for Wednesday are Camaguey and Las Tunas.
We don't really know the impacts to the Gulf Coast yet, if any.
Jamaica and Cuba will have to look out for flooding and landslides. And then heavy rainfall is likely for parts of Florida, but especially the Keys. We'll see about how much rain it brings to other parts of the Southeast. And if it tracks like the European model suggests, it might not be much for many of us. We'll have to keep watching this thing. For now the call to action is for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Central and Western Cuba, and the Florida Keys. Those people are in for some impacts.
For now, the model guidance is pretty consistent in keeping this at a "Category 1" hurricane and then weakening it back to a tropical storm after it crosses Cuba and moves into parts of the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of westerly shear, that will throw a lot of dry air at this hurricane and likely cause it to weaken.
The ocean temperatures are also not as high as they were a couple months ago. But I guess sometimes I like to err on the side of caution when we have a bad season like we have had this year, in case a system throws us a curveball.
The ocean temperatures are a little cooler in the Gulf than down in the Caribbean, and they are not as abnormally high as they were a month or two ago. Considering that and the likelihood of westerly wind shear between 15-25 knots bringing dry air into this hurricane, it will probably weaken as it moves into the Gulf, and if it were to come up in our direction, would probably bring us the rain we need, more than cause a lot of problems. It might not even cause any problems, might just help us out some.
But it's too soon to tell. I could talk all night, but it's only speculations.
Our rainfall totals for this forecast period should be between about 1-2 inches.
Of course, that depends on the track this tropical cyclone takes and how strong or weak it is when (if) it gets up here close to us.
CHITTER-CHATTER:
The only political statement I have is that Meghan McCain is by far one of the brightest crayons in the social-issues-that-actually-matter box these days. Which isn't saying much. But credit where it's due.
I was appalled, when showing a male friend why she had first caught my eye a few years ago, to be reminded of the body-shaming she went through a few years ago. I mean, seriously, since when was that considered a bad thing?? And to think, all these years, I thought Dolly Parton based a lot of her career on that very attribute, when it must have been her banjo-playing all along. I was the only guy who cared about . . . ? . . .
Ah well . . . I've said my bit.
But the lady does have an interesting podcast. I guess George Carlin got it right about those Menendez brothers all along. I mean I dunno. Time will tell. But that was a good topic for Halloween.
I'll confess, I still haven't listened to it. It's just on my list. I found Friday the 13th and Gothika far preferable to any of the media at Halloween. But I do think Meghan McCain could play a really cool horror movie character . . . especially a villain. Long live the "Bad Republican"!
Odd thing, with all the dumb shit they talked in the one debate, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump brought up the issue of whether or not Meghan McCain gives a better spanking than Stormy Daniels. (I guess only Jimmy Kimmel knows.) Where have standards gone in this country? I mean, if people are still going on about Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky after about three decades have passed . . . in so much detail as to argue over exactly where the cigar went and exactly where his bodily fluids were discharged . . . (see Figures 6.9V-X - though discretion is advised) and Fifty Shades of Grey is so popular . . . why do people continue to ignore the really important issues?
(Figure 6.9V)
(Figure 6.9X)
Their minds are in the gutter, but it just isn't the right KIND of gutter . . .
I am available for church functions also.
(HEYYYY babeh.)
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