Some Rain Off and On, a Cooldown on the Way Next Week

FORECAST:

Friday (High 78, Low 63): Mostly sunny. Somewhat warm.

Saturday (High 76, Low 64): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday (High 72, Low 63): Rain likely. Turning cooler.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Veterans Day (High 73, Low 57): Becoming mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a leftover shower.

Tuesday (High 75, Low 47): Sunny.

Wednesday (High 74, Low 48): Increasing clouds with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 65, Low 49): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a leftover shower.

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 78, Mínima 63): Mayormente soleado. En tanto cálido.

Sábado (Máxima 76, Minima 64): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 72, Mínima 63): Probabilidad de lluvia. Volviéndose más fresco.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Día de los Veteranos (Máxima 73, Mínima 57): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de una lluvia residual.

Martes (Máxima 75, Mínima 47): Soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 74, Mínima 48): Nubosidad creciente con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 65, Mínima 49): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de una lluvia residual.

NOTES:

The National Weather Service in Nashville is doing Weather 101 classes again. They are free, so if you know anybody who would like to learn more about the weather, please let them know about these. 

We are in a moderate drought, and this rain we've got coming should help. 

Here are some of those "fall in love with science" resources that nobody really cares about. But there might be one out of ten people that really care about learning about science, and I felt like an extra link this time, so there ya' go. And I appreciate that one person out of ten, if you exist. Here's a good book about hurricanes, for this fabled person. Somebody needs to write a book including this year's season. 

The Climate Prediction Center thinks that La Nina will make this Winter warmer and drier down here, but some drought relief up North in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. 

DISCUSSION:

It was a mostly overcast day in the Tennessee Valley, though the clouds came and went for many of us. Winds were generally light from the North/Northeast. The High in Cullman was 79, and the Low was 66. The High in Jasper was 79 after a morning Low of 63. Haleyville had a bit of fog this morning, not saying the other sites didn't, it just jumped out at me skimming over Haleyville's history of weather today. They had a High of 80 and a Low of 63. Huntsville had a High of 84 and Low of 68. And it was so foggy and overcast today in Nashville that they only got up to 69 degrees for the High, and the current temperature of 63 around 7 PM is the Low so far for today. 

They are on the other side of that front which has stalled out over about the Northwest corner of Alabama through Southern Middle Tennessee because of it running into the ridge of high pressure that you now see slowly drifting off into the Atlantic. So that is our first main weather feature, that front finally making some headway, moving into the state of Alabama a little, into Tennessee quite a bit. And the other main feature is that hurricane, Hurricane Rafael, in the Gulf of Mexico. 

As these weather systems get a move-on, we'll have some rain chances this weekend. In fact, on Sunday there will be a risk for flash flooding in Mississippi, Louisiana, far Northwest Alabama, and Western Tennessee. But most of us will just see general rain and thunderstorms, and a lot of us may not see all that much rain. But we'll take what we can get. It has been a while since we've had much meaningful rain, and a lot of times, droughts this time of year tend to end with a bang, like a really bad storm system. This one looks like it is willing to resolve itself in more of an easygoing way, and I don't know about you, but I'm not going to complain about that. 

Something is messed up about the GFS model graphics tonight, so I guess I'll just explain it with regular weather maps this time. Even though I was going to be more thorough and show all the raw model guidance. Can't help it when there's a glitch in the technology on the other end of things. 

Going to give kind of a wide range of temperature for tomorrow, more than usual, the High temperature about 76-80 range, the Low about 60-64 tonight/in the morning. Skies should be mostly sunny. 

Then for Saturday, High in the mid-70's because of the clouds/rain chances, the Low in the lower 60's. Will go with a 40% chance of rain. There could be an isolated thunderstorm in there too. 

Then rain is likely on Sunday, High about 70 or so, Low about 60 or so, as the front gets moving through the region. 

We won't see the serious shot of cooler, drier air until Monday and Tuesday though. Monday is Veterans Day, and of course I salute anybody who has weathered the storms of warfare. It looks like we might see an isolated shower or two hanging around in the morning, enough to keep a 20% chance of rain in there. But most of the day should be dry with more sunshine than clouds. Probably breezy too from the frontal passage. The High should be in the lower 70's and the Low in the upper 50's. 

Then Tuesday it looks like we'll be sunny and start the morning really dry and cooler, the Low dipping back into the upper 40's. And then we'll warm to at least the lower 70's by afternoon, maybe mid-70's. 

Then Wednesday of next week, you see we have another cold front moving through the Plains and Midwest. This will need to be monitored for severe weather potential out that way. They have had it rough out there lately, mainly in Oklahoma, best I recall, had a fairly damaging tornado hit Southeastern Oklahoma City within about the past week. Wednesday is a tricky day around here, the timing may work out so that most or all of the day is dry, but then some rain moving in at night. Will keep rain chance at 20-30% bracket for now until the timing becomes clearer for a future forecast. The High should be in the lower 70's and the Low in the upper 40's. 

And actually the timing of this looks like we'll get a frontal passage and some dry air for next Thursday. Any rain we get would likely come in the morning if this timing verifies. 

So here's how I'm going to break it down. Wednesday gets a 40% chance of rain, even though most or all it is likely to come at night. And Thursday only gets a 20% chance of rain, and if you care enough to read the discussion here, you understand it will probably all come in the morning, the leftovers of this system. That's how things are looking. 

The High temperature on Thursday should drop to about 65 behind this front, and the morning Low should be in the upper 40's again, might make it to about 50 with the moisture overnight/less radiational cooling. But Wednesday night looks like a cool rain for the people who get the rain. 

It looks like the ECMWF, the European global forecast model, may have nailed Hurricane Rafael, as it has many tropical systems over the years. I seem to remember it doing great with Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Anyway, this thing is forecast to stay well South of the Gulf Coast and weaken down there. Might not survive past next Tuesday, may not even make it into Mexico at tropical storm strength. All the models expected it to weaken in the Gulf because of vertical wind shear and dry air, but the European model was an outlier at first in taking it on this much more southerly track. 

Rainfall totals will probably be between 1-2 inches for this forecast period, the heavier amounts more likely over Northwest Alabama up into West Central Tennessee and of course back into Western Tennessee and over Mississippi. 

We do have some risk of flash flooding this weekend, but it is a marginal one overall. 

(Buy Me a Coffee)

Actually I'd love to see somebody donate a quarter to that link above and leave me a note, "There's a quarter in it for ya'!"

It was a mostly overcast day, periods of light rain in Cullman with a High of 73 and a Low of 66. And I said I didn't have the energy to do a forecast tonight, but I decided since I'm already up and on the computer, why not . . . 

We've still got a weak front stalled around the corner of Northwest Alabama, where it meets Mississippi and Tennessee. And Hurricane Rafael has come up through Cuba and is now entering the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. 

Its forecast track has shifted considerably, so that now most peeps be thinking it goes about where the European global model has wanted to take it all along. And it is already weakening slightly after passing through Western Cuba. It is expected to weaken to a tropical storm and then maybe even fizzle out before it would get to Mexico in roughly another week. 

Like I said, you have to watch these things for throwing curveballs. At least this one is in our favor locally, like the Gulf Coast can relax. 

It'll be partly cloudy tomorrow, not much chance of rain except maybe something isolated in the morning, maybe some fog in the morning too. High near 78-80 range, so I guess 79 is a good guess. Basically the same thing Friday with a High in the upper 70's and a Low in the lower 60's. 

Then we have another front coming through this weekend. 

Similar weather for Saturday except widely scattered rain is possible, about a 30% chance. Then Sunday that ramps up to 40%, High in lower 70's, Low in lower 60's. 

Any showers that hang around for Veterans Day should stay pretty isolated, about a 20% chance of rain, High in the mid-70's and Low in mid-maybe-upper-50's. 

Tuesday looks sunny, High in mid-70's, Low in lower 50's. 

For now will only introduce a 20% chance of rain for next Wednesday ahead of yet another front. This is active time of year. 

Just a reminder about NWS Nashville's Weather101 classes. 

Hurricane Rafael Update - Taking a More Southerly Track Through Gulf

 Looks like the model consensus has come around to what the Euro was saying all along. It is no longer expected to make landfall anywhere on the Gulf Coast. 

And frankly I lack the energy tonight to put together a coherent local forecast. May try tomorrow night. 

572 

WTNT33 KNHC 070251

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024

1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA...

...STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND RAINS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS CUBA

TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.5N 83.6W

ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA

ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for the 

provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and the Isle of 

Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and 

Mayabeque

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the

Channel 5 Bridge

* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was 

located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.6 West. Rafael is 

moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A general 

northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A turn toward the west 

at a slower forward speed is expected on Thursday, with this general 

motion continuing through Saturday.  On the forecast track, Rafael 

is expected to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern 

Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the 

southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 

indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Some weakening is possible tonight and Thursday, 

with little change in strength expected on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter 

aircraft data is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header

WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of

western Cuba for the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions

are expected in parts of the lower and middle Florida Keys through 

tonight.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected 

into Thursday, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches 

across portions of western Cuba.  This may lead to areas of flash 

flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. 

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and 

Middle Florida Keys. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 

Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm 

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should

subside tonight.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally

dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving

inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following

heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft

Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible this evening, 

mainly over parts of the Lower Florida Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the 

northwestern Caribbean during the next day or so and will also 

spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this 

week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause 

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 

products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.

Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$

Forecaster Beven

000

WTNT43 KNHC 070252

TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024

1000 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

The eye of Rafael made landfall just after the last advisory was 

issued with an estimated intensity of 100 kt.  Since then, the 

center has crossed western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of 

Mexico, and a combination of land interaction and increasing 

southwesterly shear has caused some weakening.  Reports from NOAA 

and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 

central pressure has risen to near 969 mb, and that the maximum 

winds have decreased to near 90 kt. In addition, radar data from 

Cuba and the Key West WSR-88D show that the eyewall structure has 

decayed, with the deep convection now confined to the northeastern 

quadrant.

The initial motion is 315/11.  Rafael is on the southwest side of a 

low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida 

Peninsula. This ridge is forecast to build westward in response to 

a developing deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States.

This evolution should cause the cyclone to move westward across the 

Gulf of Mexico with some decrease in forward speed during the next 

2-3 days.  The track guidance remains divergent after 72 h.  The 

GFS and Canadian models show the cyclone being caught in southerly 

flow between the deep-layer trough and a ridge over the eastern 

Gulf of Mexico and turn the system northward.  The ECMWF and UKMET 

forecast the ridge to be more over the western Gulf of Mexico 

between Rafael and the trough, and thus turn the cyclone 

southwestward.  The GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs have tracks that 

support both of these possibilities.  Given the spread and 

uncertainty, this low-confidence latter part of the forecast track 

shows a slow west-southwestward motion close the the consensus 

models.

The global models suggest that the current shear should decrease in 

about 24 h, then increase again later in the forecast period.  The 

forecast track keeps the system over relatively warm sea surface 

temperatures, especially if it turns southwestward.  However, all 

of the guidance agrees that the airmass over the Gulf will be quite 

dry, and this should lead to gradual weakening even if the system 

stays over the warm water. There remains a lot of uncertainty in 

the intensity forecast, as the environment is much more hostile to 

the north of the forecast track and somewhat more favorable to the 

south of the forecast track.  The intensity forecast follows the 

overall trend of the guidance, but the guidance itself has a 

significant spread.

Since the eyewall structure has decayed and the system is moving 

away from western Cuba, there will be no more hourly updates for 

Rafael.  Three-hourly public advisories will continue as long as 

watches and warnings are in effect.

Key Messages:

1. While Rafael is now moving away from western Cuba, a hurricane 

warning remains in effect for this region where a life-threatening 

storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves 

are still possible.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in

the Lower and Middle Florida Keys tonight.

3. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to 

western Cuba into Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are 

possible along the higher terrain.

4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of

Mexico this weekend and early next week.  Interests in the southern

and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this

system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 23.5N  83.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  07/1200Z 24.4N  84.9W   85 KT 100 MPH

 24H  08/0000Z 24.6N  86.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

 36H  08/1200Z 24.6N  88.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

 48H  09/0000Z 24.6N  89.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 60H  09/1200Z 24.8N  90.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  10/0000Z 25.0N  91.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  11/0000Z 24.8N  92.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  12/0000Z 24.2N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$

Forecaster Beven

941 

WTNT53 KNHC 070253

TDSAT3



Huracán Rafael Discusión Número 14

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL182024

1000 PM EST miércoles 06 de noviembre de 2024

El ojo de Rafael tocó tierra justo después de que la última

advertencia se emitió con una intensidad estimada de 100 kt. Desde

entonces, el centro ha cruzado el oeste de Cuba en el sureste del

Golfo de México, y una combinación de interacción de la tierra y el

aumento de la cizalladura del suroeste ha causado algún

debilitamiento. Los informes de los aviones Cazahuracán de la

Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea y la NOAA indican que la presión central

ha aumentado a cerca de 969 mb, y que los vientos máximos han

disminuido a cerca de 90 kt. Además, los datos de radar de Cuba y el

Key West WSR-88D muestran que la estructura de la pared del ojo se

ha deteriorado, con la convección profunda ahora confinada en el

cuadrante noreste.

El movimiento inicial es 315/11. Rafael está en el lado suroeste de

una cresta de nivel bajo a medio sobre el Atlántico oeste y la

Península de Florida. Se pronostica que esta cresta se construirá

hacia el oeste en respuesta a una depresión de capa profunda en

desarrollo sobre el suroeste de Estados Unidos.Esta evolución debe

causar que el ciclón se mueva hacia el oeste a través del Golfo de

México con alguna disminución en la velocidad de avance durante los

próximos 2-3 días. La guía de trayectoria permanece divergente

después de 72 h. Los modelos GFS y Canadienses muestran que el

ciclón está atrapado en el flujo sur entre la depresión de capa

profunda y una cresta sobre el Golfo de México y gira el sistema

hacia el norte. El ECMWF y UKMET pronostican que la cresta estará

más sobre el Golfo de México entre Rafael y la vaguada, y así girar

el ciclón hacia el suroeste. Las carreras de conjuntos de GFS y

ECMWF tienen pistas que apoyan ambas de estas posibilidades. Dada la

dispersión e incertidumbre, esta última parte de la trayectoria de

pronóstico de baja confianza muestra un movimiento lento hacia el

oeste-suroeste cerca de los modelos de consenso.

Los modelos globales sugieren que la cizalladura actual debe

disminuir en aproximadamente 24 h, luego aumentar de nuevo más tarde

en el período de pronóstico. La trayectoria del pronóstico mantiene

el sistema sobre temperaturas de la superficie del mar relativamente

cálidas, especialmente si gira hacia el suroeste. Sin embargo, toda

la guía está de acuerdo en que los airmass sobre el Golfo serán

bastante secos, y esto debe conducir a un debilitamiento gradual

incluso si el sistema permanece sobre el agua cálida. Permanece

mucha incertidumbre en el pronóstico de intensidad, ya que el

ambiente es mucho más hostil al norte de la trayectoria del

pronóstico y algo más favorable al sur de la trayectoria del

pronóstico. El pronóstico de intensidad sigue la tendencia general

de la guía, pero la guía en sí tiene un diferencial significativo.

Dado que la estructura de la pared del ojo se ha deteriorado y el

sistema se está moviendo lejos del oeste de Cuba, no habrá más

actualizaciones de cada hora para Rafael. Las advertencias públicas

de tres horas continuarán mientras las vigilancias y avisos estén en

efecto.

Mensajes Clave:

1. Mientras que Rafael se está moviendo ahora lejos del oeste de

Cuba, un aviso de huracán permanece en efecto para esta región donde

todavía son posibles una marejada ciclónica que amenaza la vida,

vientos con fuerza de huracán dañinos y olas destructivas.

2. Se esperan vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical, especialmente

en ráfagas, en los Cayos de la Florida esta noche.

3. El Huracán Rafael continuará trayendo períodos de fuertes lluvias

al oeste de Cuba hasta el jueves. Son posibles inundaciones

repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra a lo largo del terreno más

alto.

4. Se pronostica que Rafael serpenteará sobre el centro sur del

Golfo de México este fin de semana y principios de la próxima

semana. Los intereses en el sur y el suroeste del Golfo de México

deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema.

POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.5N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

 12H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

 24H 08/00Z 24.6N 86.7W 85 KT 100 MPH

 36H 08/1200Z 24.6N 88.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

 48H 09/00Z 24.6N 89.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

 60H 09/1200Z 24.8N 90.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

 72H 10/00Z 25.0N 91.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

 96H 11/00Z 24.8N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 12/00Z 24.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$

Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

075 

WTCA43 KNHC 070252

TASAT3



BOLETÍN

Huracán Rafael Advertencia Número 14

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL182024

1000 PM EST miércoles 06 de noviembre de 2024

...CENTRO DE RAFAEL MOVIÉNDOSE LEJOS DEL OESTE DE CUBA...

...MAREJADA CICLÓNICA, VIENTOS Y LLUVIAS DEBEN DISMINUIR A TRAVÉS DE

CUBA ESTA NOCHE...

RESUMEN DE 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

-----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...23.5N 83.6W

ALREDEDOR 80 MI...125 KM WNW DE HAVANA CUBA

ALREDEDOR 135 MI...220 KM WSW DE KEY WEST FLORIDA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 315 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...969 MB...28.62 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

El Gobierno de Cuba ha discontinuado todos los avisos para las

provincias de Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas y la Isla de Youth.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Un Aviso de Huracán está en efecto para...

* Provincias cubanas de Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana y

Mayabeque

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Cayos de la Florida bajo y medio desde Key West al oeste del

Puente del Canal 5

* Tortugas Secas

Un Aviso de Huracán significa que se esperan condiciones de huracán

en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso.

Para información de la tormenta específica en su área en los Estados

Unidos, incluyendo posibles vigilancias y avisos tierra adentro, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronóstico

del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local. Para información de la

tormenta específica en su área fuera de los Estados Unidos, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), el centro del Huracán Rafael se

localizó cerca de la latitud 23.5 Norte, longitud 83.6 Oeste. Rafael

se está moviendo hacia el noroeste cerca de 13 mph (20 km/h). Se

anticipa un movimiento general hacia el noroeste esta noche. Se

espera un giro hacia el oeste a una velocidad de avance más lenta el

jueves, con este movimiento general que continúa hasta el sábado. En

la trayectoria de pronóstico, se espera que Rafael se mueva lejos

del oeste de Cuba sobre el sureste del Golfo de México esta noche.

Luego se pronostica que Rafael se moverá sobre el sur del Golfo de

México durante los próximos días.

Los informes de los aviones Cazahuracán de la NOAA y la Reserva de

la Fuerza Aérea indican que los vientos máximos sostenidos están

cerca de 105 mph (165 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Es posible

algún debilitamiento esta noche y el jueves, con poco cambio en la

fuerza se espera el viernes.

Vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hacia fuera hasta 30

millas (45 km) desde el centro y vientos con fuerza de tormenta

tropical se extienden hacia fuera hasta 115 millas (185 km).

La presión central mínima estimada de los datos de los aviones

Cazadores de Huracanes es de 969 mb (28.62 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para el Huracán Rafael se pueden encontrar en el

Tropical

Ciclón Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT3 y el

encabezado de la OMM WTNT43 KNHC y en la web en

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

VIENTO: Se espera que las condiciones de huracán continúen en

porciones del oeste de Cuba durante las próximas horas. Se esperan

condiciones de tormenta tropical en partes de los Cayos de la

Florida bajos y medios hasta esta noche.

LLUVIA: Se esperan cantidades de lluvia adicionales de 2 a 4

pulgadas hasta el jueves, llevando a acumulaciones totales de

tormenta de 12 pulgadas a través de porciones del oeste de Cuba.

Esto puede conducir a áreas de inundaciones repentinas y

deslizamientos de tierra, especialmente a lo largo del terreno más

alto.

Se esperan totales de lluvia de 1 a 3 pulgadas para los Cayos de la

Florida Inferior y Medio de Florida.

Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia associada

con el Huracán Rafael, por favor vea el Gráfico de Lluvia Total de

Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible en

www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: Las inundaciones de marejada ciclónica a lo

largo de la costa de Cuba deben disminuir esta noche.

La combinación de una marejada ciclónica y la marea causará que las

áreas normalmente secas cerca de la costa se inunden por aguas

ascendentes que se mueven tierra adentro desde la costa. El agua

podría alcanzar las siguientes alturas por encima del suelo en algún

lugar en las áreas indicadas si la marejada máxima ocurre en el

momento de la marea alta...

Tortugas Seas...1-3 pies Cayos de Florida Bajos...1-2 pies

TORNADOS: Un par de breves tornados permanecen posibles esta noche,

principalmente sobre partes de los Cayos de Florida Bajos.

OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Rafael afecten

gran parte del noroeste del Caribe durante el próximo día más o

menos y también se extenderán a través de la mayoría del Golfo de

México de este a oeste hasta finales de esta semana hasta el fin de

semana.Estas marejadas son propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje

y corrientes marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor consulte los

productos de su oficina meteorológica local.

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia intermedia a las 100 AM EST. Próxima advertencia

completa a las 400 AM EST.

$$

Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

A Little Rain Here and There Through the Weekend, Watching Hurricane Rafael Just in Case

Wednesday (High 78, Low 64): Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the day and the night hours. 

Thursday (High 75, Low 66): Partly to mostly cloudy. An isolated shower is still possible, especially in the morning.

Friday (High 74, Low 65): Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers are possible. 

Saturday (High 73, Low 62): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers.

Sunday (High 72, Low 61): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Veterans Day (High 72, Low 51): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a leftover shower.

Tuesday (High 75, Low 50): Sunny. 

We were variably cloudy in Cullman today, breezy, periods of light rain, but not enough to bother voters. I had no problems with voting, even though I've seen where people around Birmingham had to wait well over an hour in lines. A friend of mine actually voted for Kilgore Trout, since Eliot Rosewater never literally got around to that. The High was 75, and the Low was 64 today. 

Could be worse. Could be rainin'.

Actually we need some rain. And we're going to get some soon. How much is the question.

We still have that slowly approaching cold front on the way. That large trough is still over the Central United States. Bringing us southerly winds around here. Most of the rain is staying to our West for now. Writing this at 8 PM. Actually been writing it off and on . . . multitasking. 

This cold front is going to stall out just to our Northwest courtesy of our ridge of high pressure that's held for quite a long time around the Southeast now. 

Tomorrow should feature more clouds than sun, but thanks to the tight pressure gradient moving elsewhere, winds should be a lot calmer than the past few days. Our chance of rain is probably only about 30%, which is about like a summer's day when you get a little better chance of rain, but it's still in the "typical" range. This means widely scattered showers moving across the map, off-and-on rain for the spots that do get some rain tomorrow/tomorrow night, about a 1-in-3 chance at any one spot getting a passing shower instead of just the clouds. The High should be about 77-78, the Low about 63-64. 

By the way, thanks to buying the wrong kind of meat, I am attempting tonight to make sloppy joes with turkey sausage. I would say I'll letcha know how that goes, but I'll probably forget by the next time I post anything. Besides . . . I don't recommend it. 

I saw where Meghan McCain posted a chicken enchilada recipe today. I don't have a woman as lovely as her who likes to cook for me, so I bookmarked it. I do feel like giving her some credit when the political season reaches its peak, because that tough ole' gal has been through it more than she was ever due. Besides, Mexican food will probably be the death of me. I can't give it up no matter how much I want to slim down. A guy not much older than me just died from a heart attack recently, guy who owned a radio station. And still I lack the willpower to part ways with that kind of food. At least if it's homemade, it's probably not that bad for ya', like Taco Bell . . . I mean as delicious as Taco Bell is, you wouldn't chow down on it every single day . . . kinda' like that McDonald's documentary . . . SUPERSIZE ME! or whatever they called it. Sad they had to make a documentary to prove something as common sense as: You have to balance out fast food with some real food once in a while, or it's gonna' make you sick eventually. I love the food from both those places, but it should be a once-in-a-while thing unless you work there. When I worked at Mickey D's, I grew to hate their food for a while. It was probably a year before I learned to love even their delectable chicken nuggets again. 

I've probably lost you all by now. 

Nonetheless . . . proceeding with the weather forecast. 

Thursday I guess I'll keep a 20% chance of rain in there, but that's probably overdoing it, rain chances looking low overall, partly to mostly cloudy skies, High in mid-70's, Low in mid-60's. If we see rain, it's more likely early in the day, leftovers from Wednesday night's shower bands. 

We finally get a frontal passage on Friday. We'll have a High in the lower-to-mid-70's and a Low in about the mid-60's. Rain chance about 30-40%. That's a tough call because of the uncertain track of Hurricane Rafael. 

Saturday is looking mostly cloudy with about a 40-50% chance of rain. I may play these rain chances conservative until there is better consensus on Rafael affecting the Gulf Coast. Anyway the High temperature probably in the lower 70's, the Low in the lower 60's. 

Even if the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Rafael were to make it to the Gulf Coast, like some models (mainly the GFS) have been showing, it might get picked up by this cold front and the mass of rain already associated with it. The extended forecast is a big mess this go-round. 

A 30% chance of rain looks reasonable for Sunday, similar temperatures. 

Then on Monday, Veterans Day, looks like a 20% chance of rain at best, most of the rain probably clearing out in the morning, and finally some sort-of-cooler air again. High in lower 70's, morning Low near 50. 

Then Tuesday looks sunny with a High near 75. So really our temperatures are going to stay above average for a while. But at least we're getting some rain here and there. And in November, you can kind of count it a good thing when you don't have to worry about any severe weather potential in a given week's time. And there are no signs of anything even close to that. I guess the only concern for that would be if TC Rafael were to somehow sustain itself better and then come up on the Gulf Coast, then areas inland would have a low risk of some low-topped supercells in those spiral rain bands. But it really looks like this system is going to be dying out before it even makes it to the Louisiana coast . . . if that's really where it's going. That remains to be seen. 

Hurricane Rafael is affecting the Cayman Islands tonight and will affect Western Cuba tomorrow. At this point, it looks like the Florida Keys may only get tropical storm impacts. This thing is expected to weaken at some point after entering the Gulf of Mexico. The model consensus is not that great on where it's going, but the models do agree on the basic idea of it weakening as it encounters a lot of vertical wind shear moving westward in the Gulf of Mexico. All that dry air may just about kill this thing. But it may maintain hurricane strength for at least a day after entering the Gulf. It may affect somewhere along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, or even somewhere like Mobile. But if that happens, it is expected to be a tropical storm by then, maybe a tropical storm struggling to hang together. 

As always, I'd keep an eye on this from day to day, in case any unforeseen factors were to influence this the other way, or if the landfall spot becomes clearer. Things tend to wind down in November in the tropics, but we sure had a rough hurricane season, and I'm reluctant to take any hurricane or tropical storm too lightly. Just as soon as people do that, I'm afraid "Mother Nature" could throw us a curveball. But most likely it'll just be a tropical storm by the time it affects any part of the Gulf Coast, if it even ends up there. Several tropical models and the European model are still not on board with the idea of it moving in that direction.

If we don't get some tropical moisture to fuel extra showers this weekend, then our rainfall totals should average about an inch. 

(Buy Me a Coffee)

Hurricane Rafael

It is at hurricane strength now, and we have Hurricane Warnings for the Cayman Islands and roughly the Western half of Cuba. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys. It remains highly uncertain where this thing ends up, but the computer model guidance does consistently show it weakening back to a tropical storm after it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, or at least the Western Gulf, where there is just going to be a lot of wind shear that pumps dry air into it. It might barely survive to the coast of Louisiana, if that's where it's really going. There is still a spread in the model guidance. And it's too soon to know if we get enough of that tropical moisture to bring extra rain to Central or North Alabama. 

000

WTNT63 KNHC 060021

TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024

720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that 

Rafael has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 

mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also 

indicates that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 986 mb 

(29.11 inches).

SUMMARY OF 720 PM EST...0020 UTC...INFORMATION

---------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.4N 79.9W

ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN

ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Papin/Hagen

000

WTNT33 KNHC 052355

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024

700 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAYMAN 

ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.3N 79.9W

ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN

ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cayman Islands

* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,

Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,

and Ciego de Avila

* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the

Channel 5 Bridge

* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern

Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was 

located by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 

latitude 19.3 North, longitude 79.9 West. Rafael is moving toward 

the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general northwestward motion 

is anticipated over the next several days. On the forecast track, 

the storm is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands 

tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into 

the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 

indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) 

with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected 

during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to become a 

hurricane shortly as it passes near the Cayman Islands, with 

additional strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from dropsonde data from the 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header

WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by

this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of

Youth on Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts

of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on

Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Tropical Storm conditions are

possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean

through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman

Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals

between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up

to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could

lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and

Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet

above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and

could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal

tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of

Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally

dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving

inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following

heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft

Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and

far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of

the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$

Forecaster Papin

078 

WTNT43 KNHC 052041

TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024

400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and 

radar data from Grand Cayman indicate that Rafael has developed an 

inner wind core during the past several hours.  The radar data shows 

the development of a ragged eye, and the Hurricane Hunter reported 

850-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt about 30-35 n mi northeast of the 

center. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has 

fallen to near 989 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity 

is increased to 60 kt.  The wind radii have been revised some based 

on the aircraft data.

The initial motion is northwestward at 325/13 kt.  Rafael is

currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over

the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone

generally northwestward for the next 36-48 h, with the center 

passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. From 48-72 

h, the models are in better agreement that the center should turn 

more westward as the ridge builds a little westward along the 

northern Gulf coast.  After 72 h, there remains some significant 

spread in the track guidance, due partly to differences in how fast 

Rafael will shear apart and due partly to differences in the 

forecast strength of the ridge along the Gulf coast.  The GFS 

weakens the ridge and shows a northward turn, while the ECMWF keeps 

a stronger ridge and shows a more westward motion.  The 

deterministic UKMET has now changed to a northward turn scenario, 

but the HWRF, HMON, and UKMET ensemble mean join the ECMWF with a 

westward motion.  As mentioned with the previous forecast, until 

there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more 

likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow 

turn toward the north over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Now that Rafael has developed an inner wind core, conditions are 

favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 h or 

so.  The system is expected to reach hurricane strength during 

the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands with 

additional strengthening before it reaches Cuba.  While the peak 

intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance, 

there is a chance that Rafael could get stronger than currently 

forecast. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico, 

the cyclone is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, 

dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which 

should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart 

vertically. This part of the intensity forecast lies near or just 

above the intensity consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over 

the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging 

hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive 

waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before 

Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A 

hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging 

hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive 

waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle 

Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could

bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.  Residents in this

area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the 

western Caribbean through early Thursday, including  Jamaica and the 

Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. 

Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain 

in Jamaica and Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 19.1N  79.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  06/0600Z 20.5N  80.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  06/1800Z 22.5N  82.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  07/0600Z 24.1N  83.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  07/1800Z 25.0N  85.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 60H  08/0600Z 25.4N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  08/1800Z 25.8N  87.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  09/1800Z 27.1N  90.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  10/1800Z 28.8N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$

Forecaster Beven

000

WTNT53 KNHC 052043

TDSAT3



Tormenta Tropical Rafael Discusión Número 9

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL182024

400 PM EST martes 05 de noviembre de 2024

Los informes de un avión Cazahuracán de la Reserva de la Fuerza

Aérea y los datos de radar de Gran Caimán indican que Rafael ha

desarrollado un núcleo de viento interno durante las últimas horas.

Los datos de radar muestran el desarrollo de un ojo irregular, y el

Cazador de Huracanes informó de vientos a nivel de vuelo de 850-mb

de 73 kt alrededor de 30-35 n mi al noreste del centro. El avión

también informó que la presión central ha caído a cerca de 989 mb.

Basado en estos datos, la intensidad inicial se aumenta a 60 kt. Los

radios de viento han sido revisados algunos en base a los datos de

las aeronaves.

El movimiento inicial es hacia el noroeste a 325/13 kt. Rafael está

actualmente en el lado suroeste de una cresta de nivel bajo a medio

sobre el Atlántico occidental, y esta característica debe dirigir el

ciclón generalmente hacia el noroeste durante los próximos 36-48 h,

con el centro pasando cerca de las Islas Caimán y sobre el oeste de

Cuba. De 48-72 h, los modelos están en mejor acuerdo en que el

centro debe girar más hacia el oeste a medida que la cresta se

construye un poco hacia el oeste a lo largo de la costa norte del

Golfo. Después de 72 h, permanece alguna dispersión significativa en

la guía de trayectoria, debido en parte a las diferencias en la

rapidez con la que Rafael se separará y debido en parte a las

diferencias en la fuerza del pronóstico de la cresta a lo largo de

la costa del Golfo. El GFS debilita la cresta y muestra un giro

hacia el norte, mientras que el ECMWF mantiene una cresta más fuerte

y muestra un movimiento más hacia el oeste. El UKMET determinista ha

cambiado ahora a un escenario de giro hacia el norte, pero el

conjunto de HWRF, HMON y UKMET significa que se unen al ECMWF con un

movimiento hacia el oeste. Como se mencionó con el pronóstico

anterior, hasta que haya una señal más clara sobre cuál de estos

escenarios es más probable, el pronóstico compromete entre estos

extremos con un giro lento hacia el norte sobre el norte del Golfo

de México.

Ahora que Rafael ha desarrollado un núcleo de viento interno, las

condiciones son favorables para un fortalecimiento de constante a

rápido durante las próximas 24 h más o menos. Se espera que el

sistema alcance la fuerza de huracán durante las próximas horas a

medida que pasa a través de las Islas Caimán con un fortalecimiento

adicional antes de que alcance Cuba. Si bien el pronóstico de

intensidad máxima está cerca del extremo alto de la guía de

intensidad, hay una probabilidad de que Rafael pueda volverse más

fuerte de lo que se pronostica actualmente. Una vez que el centro

está al norte de 25N en el Golfo de México, es probable que el

ciclón encuentre una cizalladura del viento vertical creciente,

arrastre de aire seco y temperaturas de la superficie del mar más

frías, que deberían conducir a que Rafael se debilite y

eventualmente se cizallará verticalmente.Esta parte del pronóstico

de intensidad se encuentra cerca o justo por encima del consenso de

intensidad.

Mensajes Clave:

1. Se pronostica que Rafael será un huracán cuando pase cerca o

sobre las Islas Caimán durante las próximas 12 horas, donde se

esperan vientos dañinos con fuerza de huracán, una marejada

ciclónica peligrosa y olas destructivas. Se espera un

fortalecimiento adicional antes de que Rafael alcance el oeste de

Cuba y la Isla de Youth el miércoles. Un aviso de huracán está en

efecto para esta región, donde también se esperan vientos con fuerza

de huracán dañinos, marejada ciclónica que amenaza la vida y olas

destructivas.

2. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en los Cayos de la

Florida a partir del miércoles y el miércoles por la noche.

3. Es demasiado pronto para determinar qué, si los hay, impactos

Rafael podrían traer a porciones de la Costa norte del Golfo. Los

residentes en esta área deben monitorear regularmente las

actualizaciones del pronóstico.

4. Rafael traerá áreas de fuertes lluvias a través de porciones del

Caribe oeste hasta el jueves temprano, incluyendo Jamaica y las

Islas Caimán, junto con porciones sur y oeste de Cuba. Son posibles

inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra a lo largo del

terreno más alto en Jamaica y Cuba.

POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

 12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

 24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

 36H 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

 48H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

 60H 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

 72H 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

 96H 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$

Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

732 

WTCA43 KNHC 052356

TASAT3



BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Rafael Advertencia Intermedia Número 9A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL182024

700 PM EST martes 05 de noviembre de 2024

...RAFAEL CERCA DE LA INTENSIDAD DE HURACANES A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA

A LAS ISLAS CAIMÁN...

RESUMEN DE 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...19.3N 79.9W

ALREDEDOR 25 MI...45 KM SE DE LITTLE CAYMAN

ALREDEDOR 305 MI...495 KM SSE DE HAVANA CUBA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 325 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Un Aviso de Huracán está en efecto para...

* Islas Caimán

* Provincias cubanas de Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,

Mayabeque, Matanzas y la Isla de Youth

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Provincias cubanas de Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus y

Ciego de Avila

* Cayos de la Florida bajo y medio desde Key West al oeste del

Puente del Canal 5

* Tortugas Secas

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Provincias cubanas de Camaguey y Las Tunas

Un Aviso de Huracán significa que se esperan condiciones de huracán

en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso. Un aviso se emite

típicamente 36 horas antes de la primera ocurrencia anticipada de

vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical, condiciones que hacen los

preparativos exteriores difíciles o peligrosos. Los preparativos

para proteger la vida y la propiedad deben apresurarse hasta su

finalización.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que son posibles las

condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área de vigilancia.

Intereses en otro lugar de Cuba, los Cayos de Florida y la Península

de Florida sur deben monitorear el progreso de Rafael.

Para información de la tormenta específica en su área en los Estados

Unidos, incluyendo posibles vigilancias y avisos tierra adentro, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronóstico

del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local. Para información de la

tormenta específica en su área fuera de los Estados Unidos, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Rafael se

localizó por aviones de la NOAA y los Cazadores de Huracanes de la

Fuerza Aérea cerca de la latitud 19.3 Norte, longitud 79.9 Oeste.

Rafael se está moviendo hacia el noroeste cerca de 15 mph (24 km/h).

Se anticipa un movimiento general hacia el noroeste durante los

próximos días. En la trayectoria del pronóstico, se espera que la

tormenta se mueva cerca o sobre las Islas Caimán esta noche, esté

cerca o sobre el oeste de Cuba el miércoles, y se mueva al sureste

del Golfo de México para el miércoles por la noche.

Los informes de los aviones Cazahuracán de la NOAA y la Reserva de

la Fuerza Aérea indican que los vientos máximos sostenidos

permanecen cerca de 70 mph (110 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se

espera una intensificación de manera constante a rápida durante las

próximas 24 horas más o menos, y se espera que Rafael se convierta

en un huracán pronto a medida que pasa cerca de las Islas Caimán,

con un fortalecimiento adicional antes de que toque tierra en Cuba.

Vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia fuera

hasta 115 millas (185 km) desde el centro.

La presión central mínima estimada a partir de los datos de

dropsonde del avión Huracán Hunter es de 987 mb (29.15 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para la Tormenta Tropical Rafael se pueden encontrar

en el Tropical

Ciclón Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT3 y el

encabezado de la OMM WTNT43 KNHC y en la web en

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de huracán en las Islas Caimán para

esta noche y también se esperan en el oeste de Cuba y la Isla de

Juventud el miércoles. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical

en partes del centro oeste de Cuba y los Cayos de Florida bajos y

medios el miércoles y el miércoles por la noche. Son posibles las

condiciones de Tormenta Tropical más al este en el centro de Cuba el

miércoles.

LLUVIA: Las fuertes lluvias afectarán áreas del Caribe oeste hasta

el jueves temprano, particularmente a través de Jamaica y las Islas

Caimán en porciones sur y oeste de Cuba. Se esperan totales de

lluvia de entre 3 a 6 pulgadas, con totales más altos aislados de

hasta 10 pulgadas a través de áreas de terreno más alto, que podrían

conducir a áreas de inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de

tierra.

Se esperan totales de lluvia de 1 a 3 pulgadas para los Cayos de la

Florida Inferior y Medio de Florida.

Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia associada

con la Tormenta Tropical Rafael, por favor vea el Gráfico de Lluvia

Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible

en www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles

de agua de 1 a 3 pies por encima de los niveles de marea normales en

las Islas Caimán el martes, y podría elevar los niveles de agua

hasta 6 a 9 pies por encima de los niveles de marea normales en

áreas de vientos terrestres a lo largo de la costa sur de Cuba en el

área de Aviso de Huracán, incluyendo la Isla de la Juventud.

La combinación de una marejada ciclónica y la marea causará que las

áreas normalmente secas cerca de la costa se inunden por aguas

ascendentes que se mueven tierra adentro desde la costa. El agua

podría alcanzar las siguientes alturas por encima del suelo en algún

lugar en las áreas indicadas si la marejada máxima ocurre en el

momento de la marea alta...

Tortugas Seas...1-3 pies Cayos de Florida Bajos...1-2 pies

TORNADOS: Son posibles algunos tornados el miércoles sobre los Cayos

y el extremo suroeste de Florida continental

OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Rafael afecten

gran parte del Caribe oeste durante los próximos días.Estas

marejadas son propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje y corrientes

marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor consulte los productos de su

oficina meteorológica local.

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 PM EST.

$$

Pronosticador Papin

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

104 

WTNT73 KNHC 060022

TUSAT3



Huracán Rafael Ciclón Tropical Actualización

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL182024

720 PM EST martes 05 de noviembre de 2024

...RAFAEL SE INTENSIFICA EN UN HURACANE...

Los datos recientes de un avión Cazahuracán de la NOAA indican que

Rafael se ha convertido en un huracán con vientos máximos sostenidos

de 75 mph (120 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Los datos del avión

también indican que la presión central mínima ha caído a 986 mb

(29.11 pulgadas).

RESUMEN DE 720 PM EST...0020 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

---------------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...19.4N 79.9W

ALREDEDOR 20 MI...35 KM SE DE LITTLE CAYMAN

ALREDEDOR 305 MI...495 KM SSE DE HAVANA CUBA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 325 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...986 MB...29.11 PULGADAS

$$

Pronosticador Papin/Hagen

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***