A Little Rain Here and There Through the Weekend, Watching Hurricane Rafael Just in Case

Wednesday (High 78, Low 64): Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the day and the night hours. 

Thursday (High 75, Low 66): Partly to mostly cloudy. An isolated shower is still possible, especially in the morning.

Friday (High 74, Low 65): Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers are possible. 

Saturday (High 73, Low 62): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers.

Sunday (High 72, Low 61): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Veterans Day (High 72, Low 51): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a leftover shower.

Tuesday (High 75, Low 50): Sunny. 

We were variably cloudy in Cullman today, breezy, periods of light rain, but not enough to bother voters. I had no problems with voting, even though I've seen where people around Birmingham had to wait well over an hour in lines. A friend of mine actually voted for Kilgore Trout, since Eliot Rosewater never literally got around to that. The High was 75, and the Low was 64 today. 

Could be worse. Could be rainin'.

Actually we need some rain. And we're going to get some soon. How much is the question.

We still have that slowly approaching cold front on the way. That large trough is still over the Central United States. Bringing us southerly winds around here. Most of the rain is staying to our West for now. Writing this at 8 PM. Actually been writing it off and on . . . multitasking. 

This cold front is going to stall out just to our Northwest courtesy of our ridge of high pressure that's held for quite a long time around the Southeast now. 

Tomorrow should feature more clouds than sun, but thanks to the tight pressure gradient moving elsewhere, winds should be a lot calmer than the past few days. Our chance of rain is probably only about 30%, which is about like a summer's day when you get a little better chance of rain, but it's still in the "typical" range. This means widely scattered showers moving across the map, off-and-on rain for the spots that do get some rain tomorrow/tomorrow night, about a 1-in-3 chance at any one spot getting a passing shower instead of just the clouds. The High should be about 77-78, the Low about 63-64. 

By the way, thanks to buying the wrong kind of meat, I am attempting tonight to make sloppy joes with turkey sausage. I would say I'll letcha know how that goes, but I'll probably forget by the next time I post anything. Besides . . . I don't recommend it. 

I saw where Meghan McCain posted a chicken enchilada recipe today. I don't have a woman as lovely as her who likes to cook for me, so I bookmarked it. I do feel like giving her some credit when the political season reaches its peak, because that tough ole' gal has been through it more than she was ever due. Besides, Mexican food will probably be the death of me. I can't give it up no matter how much I want to slim down. A guy not much older than me just died from a heart attack recently, guy who owned a radio station. And still I lack the willpower to part ways with that kind of food. At least if it's homemade, it's probably not that bad for ya', like Taco Bell . . . I mean as delicious as Taco Bell is, you wouldn't chow down on it every single day . . . kinda' like that McDonald's documentary . . . SUPERSIZE ME! or whatever they called it. Sad they had to make a documentary to prove something as common sense as: You have to balance out fast food with some real food once in a while, or it's gonna' make you sick eventually. I love the food from both those places, but it should be a once-in-a-while thing unless you work there. When I worked at Mickey D's, I grew to hate their food for a while. It was probably a year before I learned to love even their delectable chicken nuggets again. 

I've probably lost you all by now. 

Nonetheless . . . proceeding with the weather forecast. 

Thursday I guess I'll keep a 20% chance of rain in there, but that's probably overdoing it, rain chances looking low overall, partly to mostly cloudy skies, High in mid-70's, Low in mid-60's. If we see rain, it's more likely early in the day, leftovers from Wednesday night's shower bands. 

We finally get a frontal passage on Friday. We'll have a High in the lower-to-mid-70's and a Low in about the mid-60's. Rain chance about 30-40%. That's a tough call because of the uncertain track of Hurricane Rafael. 

Saturday is looking mostly cloudy with about a 40-50% chance of rain. I may play these rain chances conservative until there is better consensus on Rafael affecting the Gulf Coast. Anyway the High temperature probably in the lower 70's, the Low in the lower 60's. 

Even if the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Rafael were to make it to the Gulf Coast, like some models (mainly the GFS) have been showing, it might get picked up by this cold front and the mass of rain already associated with it. The extended forecast is a big mess this go-round. 

A 30% chance of rain looks reasonable for Sunday, similar temperatures. 

Then on Monday, Veterans Day, looks like a 20% chance of rain at best, most of the rain probably clearing out in the morning, and finally some sort-of-cooler air again. High in lower 70's, morning Low near 50. 

Then Tuesday looks sunny with a High near 75. So really our temperatures are going to stay above average for a while. But at least we're getting some rain here and there. And in November, you can kind of count it a good thing when you don't have to worry about any severe weather potential in a given week's time. And there are no signs of anything even close to that. I guess the only concern for that would be if TC Rafael were to somehow sustain itself better and then come up on the Gulf Coast, then areas inland would have a low risk of some low-topped supercells in those spiral rain bands. But it really looks like this system is going to be dying out before it even makes it to the Louisiana coast . . . if that's really where it's going. That remains to be seen. 

Hurricane Rafael is affecting the Cayman Islands tonight and will affect Western Cuba tomorrow. At this point, it looks like the Florida Keys may only get tropical storm impacts. This thing is expected to weaken at some point after entering the Gulf of Mexico. The model consensus is not that great on where it's going, but the models do agree on the basic idea of it weakening as it encounters a lot of vertical wind shear moving westward in the Gulf of Mexico. All that dry air may just about kill this thing. But it may maintain hurricane strength for at least a day after entering the Gulf. It may affect somewhere along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, or even somewhere like Mobile. But if that happens, it is expected to be a tropical storm by then, maybe a tropical storm struggling to hang together. 

As always, I'd keep an eye on this from day to day, in case any unforeseen factors were to influence this the other way, or if the landfall spot becomes clearer. Things tend to wind down in November in the tropics, but we sure had a rough hurricane season, and I'm reluctant to take any hurricane or tropical storm too lightly. Just as soon as people do that, I'm afraid "Mother Nature" could throw us a curveball. But most likely it'll just be a tropical storm by the time it affects any part of the Gulf Coast, if it even ends up there. Several tropical models and the European model are still not on board with the idea of it moving in that direction.

If we don't get some tropical moisture to fuel extra showers this weekend, then our rainfall totals should average about an inch. 

(Buy Me a Coffee)

Hurricane Rafael

It is at hurricane strength now, and we have Hurricane Warnings for the Cayman Islands and roughly the Western half of Cuba. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys. It remains highly uncertain where this thing ends up, but the computer model guidance does consistently show it weakening back to a tropical storm after it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, or at least the Western Gulf, where there is just going to be a lot of wind shear that pumps dry air into it. It might barely survive to the coast of Louisiana, if that's where it's really going. There is still a spread in the model guidance. And it's too soon to know if we get enough of that tropical moisture to bring extra rain to Central or North Alabama. 

000

WTNT63 KNHC 060021

TCUAT3

Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024

720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that 

Rafael has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 

mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also 

indicates that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 986 mb 

(29.11 inches).

SUMMARY OF 720 PM EST...0020 UTC...INFORMATION

---------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.4N 79.9W

ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN

ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Papin/Hagen

000

WTNT33 KNHC 052355

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024

700 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAYMAN 

ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.3N 79.9W

ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN

ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cayman Islands

* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,

Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,

and Ciego de Avila

* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the

Channel 5 Bridge

* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern

Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was 

located by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 

latitude 19.3 North, longitude 79.9 West. Rafael is moving toward 

the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general northwestward motion 

is anticipated over the next several days. On the forecast track, 

the storm is expected to move near or over the Cayman Islands 

tonight, be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday, and move into 

the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft 

indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) 

with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected 

during the next 24 hour or so, and Rafael is expected to become a 

hurricane shortly as it passes near the Cayman Islands, with 

additional strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from dropsonde data from the 

Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical

Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header

WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by

this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of

Youth on Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts

of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on

Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Tropical Storm conditions are

possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean

through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman

Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals

between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up

to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could

lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and

Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet

above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and

could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal

tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of

Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally

dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving

inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following

heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak

surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft

Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and

far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF:  Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of

the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$

Forecaster Papin

078 

WTNT43 KNHC 052041

TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024

400 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and 

radar data from Grand Cayman indicate that Rafael has developed an 

inner wind core during the past several hours.  The radar data shows 

the development of a ragged eye, and the Hurricane Hunter reported 

850-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt about 30-35 n mi northeast of the 

center. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has 

fallen to near 989 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity 

is increased to 60 kt.  The wind radii have been revised some based 

on the aircraft data.

The initial motion is northwestward at 325/13 kt.  Rafael is

currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over

the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone

generally northwestward for the next 36-48 h, with the center 

passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. From 48-72 

h, the models are in better agreement that the center should turn 

more westward as the ridge builds a little westward along the 

northern Gulf coast.  After 72 h, there remains some significant 

spread in the track guidance, due partly to differences in how fast 

Rafael will shear apart and due partly to differences in the 

forecast strength of the ridge along the Gulf coast.  The GFS 

weakens the ridge and shows a northward turn, while the ECMWF keeps 

a stronger ridge and shows a more westward motion.  The 

deterministic UKMET has now changed to a northward turn scenario, 

but the HWRF, HMON, and UKMET ensemble mean join the ECMWF with a 

westward motion.  As mentioned with the previous forecast, until 

there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more 

likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow 

turn toward the north over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Now that Rafael has developed an inner wind core, conditions are 

favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24 h or 

so.  The system is expected to reach hurricane strength during 

the next several hours as it passes through the Cayman Islands with 

additional strengthening before it reaches Cuba.  While the peak 

intensity forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance, 

there is a chance that Rafael could get stronger than currently 

forecast. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico, 

the cyclone is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, 

dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which 

should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart 

vertically. This part of the intensity forecast lies near or just 

above the intensity consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over 

the Cayman Islands during the next 12 hours, where damaging 

hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive 

waves are expected. Additional strengthening is expected before 

Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A 

hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging 

hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive 

waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle 

Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could

bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.  Residents in this

area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the 

western Caribbean through early Thursday, including  Jamaica and the 

Cayman Islands, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. 

Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain 

in Jamaica and Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 19.1N  79.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  06/0600Z 20.5N  80.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 24H  06/1800Z 22.5N  82.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  07/0600Z 24.1N  83.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  07/1800Z 25.0N  85.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 60H  08/0600Z 25.4N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  08/1800Z 25.8N  87.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  09/1800Z 27.1N  90.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

120H  10/1800Z 28.8N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$

Forecaster Beven

000

WTNT53 KNHC 052043

TDSAT3



Tormenta Tropical Rafael Discusión Número 9

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL182024

400 PM EST martes 05 de noviembre de 2024

Los informes de un avión Cazahuracán de la Reserva de la Fuerza

Aérea y los datos de radar de Gran Caimán indican que Rafael ha

desarrollado un núcleo de viento interno durante las últimas horas.

Los datos de radar muestran el desarrollo de un ojo irregular, y el

Cazador de Huracanes informó de vientos a nivel de vuelo de 850-mb

de 73 kt alrededor de 30-35 n mi al noreste del centro. El avión

también informó que la presión central ha caído a cerca de 989 mb.

Basado en estos datos, la intensidad inicial se aumenta a 60 kt. Los

radios de viento han sido revisados algunos en base a los datos de

las aeronaves.

El movimiento inicial es hacia el noroeste a 325/13 kt. Rafael está

actualmente en el lado suroeste de una cresta de nivel bajo a medio

sobre el Atlántico occidental, y esta característica debe dirigir el

ciclón generalmente hacia el noroeste durante los próximos 36-48 h,

con el centro pasando cerca de las Islas Caimán y sobre el oeste de

Cuba. De 48-72 h, los modelos están en mejor acuerdo en que el

centro debe girar más hacia el oeste a medida que la cresta se

construye un poco hacia el oeste a lo largo de la costa norte del

Golfo. Después de 72 h, permanece alguna dispersión significativa en

la guía de trayectoria, debido en parte a las diferencias en la

rapidez con la que Rafael se separará y debido en parte a las

diferencias en la fuerza del pronóstico de la cresta a lo largo de

la costa del Golfo. El GFS debilita la cresta y muestra un giro

hacia el norte, mientras que el ECMWF mantiene una cresta más fuerte

y muestra un movimiento más hacia el oeste. El UKMET determinista ha

cambiado ahora a un escenario de giro hacia el norte, pero el

conjunto de HWRF, HMON y UKMET significa que se unen al ECMWF con un

movimiento hacia el oeste. Como se mencionó con el pronóstico

anterior, hasta que haya una señal más clara sobre cuál de estos

escenarios es más probable, el pronóstico compromete entre estos

extremos con un giro lento hacia el norte sobre el norte del Golfo

de México.

Ahora que Rafael ha desarrollado un núcleo de viento interno, las

condiciones son favorables para un fortalecimiento de constante a

rápido durante las próximas 24 h más o menos. Se espera que el

sistema alcance la fuerza de huracán durante las próximas horas a

medida que pasa a través de las Islas Caimán con un fortalecimiento

adicional antes de que alcance Cuba. Si bien el pronóstico de

intensidad máxima está cerca del extremo alto de la guía de

intensidad, hay una probabilidad de que Rafael pueda volverse más

fuerte de lo que se pronostica actualmente. Una vez que el centro

está al norte de 25N en el Golfo de México, es probable que el

ciclón encuentre una cizalladura del viento vertical creciente,

arrastre de aire seco y temperaturas de la superficie del mar más

frías, que deberían conducir a que Rafael se debilite y

eventualmente se cizallará verticalmente.Esta parte del pronóstico

de intensidad se encuentra cerca o justo por encima del consenso de

intensidad.

Mensajes Clave:

1. Se pronostica que Rafael será un huracán cuando pase cerca o

sobre las Islas Caimán durante las próximas 12 horas, donde se

esperan vientos dañinos con fuerza de huracán, una marejada

ciclónica peligrosa y olas destructivas. Se espera un

fortalecimiento adicional antes de que Rafael alcance el oeste de

Cuba y la Isla de Youth el miércoles. Un aviso de huracán está en

efecto para esta región, donde también se esperan vientos con fuerza

de huracán dañinos, marejada ciclónica que amenaza la vida y olas

destructivas.

2. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en los Cayos de la

Florida a partir del miércoles y el miércoles por la noche.

3. Es demasiado pronto para determinar qué, si los hay, impactos

Rafael podrían traer a porciones de la Costa norte del Golfo. Los

residentes en esta área deben monitorear regularmente las

actualizaciones del pronóstico.

4. Rafael traerá áreas de fuertes lluvias a través de porciones del

Caribe oeste hasta el jueves temprano, incluyendo Jamaica y las

Islas Caimán, junto con porciones sur y oeste de Cuba. Son posibles

inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de tierra a lo largo del

terreno más alto en Jamaica y Cuba.

POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 05/2100Z 19.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

 12H 06/0600Z 20.5N 80.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

 24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 82.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

 36H 07/0600Z 24.1N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

 48H 07/1800Z 25.0N 85.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

 60H 08/0600Z 25.4N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

 72H 08/1800Z 25.8N 87.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

 96H 09/1800Z 27.1N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

120H 10/1800Z 28.8N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$

Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

732 

WTCA43 KNHC 052356

TASAT3



BOLETÍN

Tormenta Tropical Rafael Advertencia Intermedia Número 9A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL182024

700 PM EST martes 05 de noviembre de 2024

...RAFAEL CERCA DE LA INTENSIDAD DE HURACANES A MEDIDA QUE SE ACERCA

A LAS ISLAS CAIMÁN...

RESUMEN DE 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...19.3N 79.9W

ALREDEDOR 25 MI...45 KM SE DE LITTLE CAYMAN

ALREDEDOR 305 MI...495 KM SSE DE HAVANA CUBA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 325 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...987 MB...29.15 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Un Aviso de Huracán está en efecto para...

* Islas Caimán

* Provincias cubanas de Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,

Mayabeque, Matanzas y la Isla de Youth

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Provincias cubanas de Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus y

Ciego de Avila

* Cayos de la Florida bajo y medio desde Key West al oeste del

Puente del Canal 5

* Tortugas Secas

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Provincias cubanas de Camaguey y Las Tunas

Un Aviso de Huracán significa que se esperan condiciones de huracán

en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso. Un aviso se emite

típicamente 36 horas antes de la primera ocurrencia anticipada de

vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical, condiciones que hacen los

preparativos exteriores difíciles o peligrosos. Los preparativos

para proteger la vida y la propiedad deben apresurarse hasta su

finalización.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que son posibles las

condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área de vigilancia.

Intereses en otro lugar de Cuba, los Cayos de Florida y la Península

de Florida sur deben monitorear el progreso de Rafael.

Para información de la tormenta específica en su área en los Estados

Unidos, incluyendo posibles vigilancias y avisos tierra adentro, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronóstico

del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local. Para información de la

tormenta específica en su área fuera de los Estados Unidos, por

favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), el centro de la Tormenta Tropical Rafael se

localizó por aviones de la NOAA y los Cazadores de Huracanes de la

Fuerza Aérea cerca de la latitud 19.3 Norte, longitud 79.9 Oeste.

Rafael se está moviendo hacia el noroeste cerca de 15 mph (24 km/h).

Se anticipa un movimiento general hacia el noroeste durante los

próximos días. En la trayectoria del pronóstico, se espera que la

tormenta se mueva cerca o sobre las Islas Caimán esta noche, esté

cerca o sobre el oeste de Cuba el miércoles, y se mueva al sureste

del Golfo de México para el miércoles por la noche.

Los informes de los aviones Cazahuracán de la NOAA y la Reserva de

la Fuerza Aérea indican que los vientos máximos sostenidos

permanecen cerca de 70 mph (110 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se

espera una intensificación de manera constante a rápida durante las

próximas 24 horas más o menos, y se espera que Rafael se convierta

en un huracán pronto a medida que pasa cerca de las Islas Caimán,

con un fortalecimiento adicional antes de que toque tierra en Cuba.

Vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se extienden hacia fuera

hasta 115 millas (185 km) desde el centro.

La presión central mínima estimada a partir de los datos de

dropsonde del avión Huracán Hunter es de 987 mb (29.15 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para la Tormenta Tropical Rafael se pueden encontrar

en el Tropical

Ciclón Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT3 y el

encabezado de la OMM WTNT43 KNHC y en la web en

hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de huracán en las Islas Caimán para

esta noche y también se esperan en el oeste de Cuba y la Isla de

Juventud el miércoles. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical

en partes del centro oeste de Cuba y los Cayos de Florida bajos y

medios el miércoles y el miércoles por la noche. Son posibles las

condiciones de Tormenta Tropical más al este en el centro de Cuba el

miércoles.

LLUVIA: Las fuertes lluvias afectarán áreas del Caribe oeste hasta

el jueves temprano, particularmente a través de Jamaica y las Islas

Caimán en porciones sur y oeste de Cuba. Se esperan totales de

lluvia de entre 3 a 6 pulgadas, con totales más altos aislados de

hasta 10 pulgadas a través de áreas de terreno más alto, que podrían

conducir a áreas de inundaciones repentinas y deslizamientos de

tierra.

Se esperan totales de lluvia de 1 a 3 pulgadas para los Cayos de la

Florida Inferior y Medio de Florida.

Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia associada

con la Tormenta Tropical Rafael, por favor vea el Gráfico de Lluvia

Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible

en www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles

de agua de 1 a 3 pies por encima de los niveles de marea normales en

las Islas Caimán el martes, y podría elevar los niveles de agua

hasta 6 a 9 pies por encima de los niveles de marea normales en

áreas de vientos terrestres a lo largo de la costa sur de Cuba en el

área de Aviso de Huracán, incluyendo la Isla de la Juventud.

La combinación de una marejada ciclónica y la marea causará que las

áreas normalmente secas cerca de la costa se inunden por aguas

ascendentes que se mueven tierra adentro desde la costa. El agua

podría alcanzar las siguientes alturas por encima del suelo en algún

lugar en las áreas indicadas si la marejada máxima ocurre en el

momento de la marea alta...

Tortugas Seas...1-3 pies Cayos de Florida Bajos...1-2 pies

TORNADOS: Son posibles algunos tornados el miércoles sobre los Cayos

y el extremo suroeste de Florida continental

OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Rafael afecten

gran parte del Caribe oeste durante los próximos días.Estas

marejadas son propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje y corrientes

marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor consulte los productos de su

oficina meteorológica local.

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 PM EST.

$$

Pronosticador Papin

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

104 

WTNT73 KNHC 060022

TUSAT3



Huracán Rafael Ciclón Tropical Actualización

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL182024

720 PM EST martes 05 de noviembre de 2024

...RAFAEL SE INTENSIFICA EN UN HURACANE...

Los datos recientes de un avión Cazahuracán de la NOAA indican que

Rafael se ha convertido en un huracán con vientos máximos sostenidos

de 75 mph (120 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Los datos del avión

también indican que la presión central mínima ha caído a 986 mb

(29.11 pulgadas).

RESUMEN DE 720 PM EST...0020 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

---------------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...19.4N 79.9W

ALREDEDOR 20 MI...35 KM SE DE LITTLE CAYMAN

ALREDEDOR 305 MI...495 KM SSE DE HAVANA CUBA

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 325 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...986 MB...29.11 PULGADAS

$$

Pronosticador Papin/Hagen

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Election Day Forecast

FORECAST:

Election Day (High 77, Low 60): Partly to mostly sunny and breezy with isolated showers possible, mainly at night. Raining cats and barking dogs that eat the polls and everything else in sight, including sinkhole countries and all the boogeymen that survived Halloween. 

Wednesday (High 78, Low 62): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Thursday (High 79, Low 61): Partly cloudy. Warm.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 75, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Saturday (High 73, Low 61): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.

Sunday (High 70, Low 56): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain.

Veterans Day (High 70, Low 55): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a lingering shower. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Día de Elección (Máxima 77, Mínima 60): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado y ventoso. Es posible que haya lluvias aisladas o tormentas eléctricas, principalmente por la noche.

Miércoles (Máxima 78, Mínima 62): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que haya lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

Jueves (Máxima 79, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado. Cálido.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Viernes (Máxima 75, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Sábado (Máxima 73, Mínima 61): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.

Domingo (Máxima 70, Mínima 56): Mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvia.

Día de los Veteranos (Máxima 70, Mínima 55): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de una lluvia persistente.

DISCUSSION:

Overall it was a mostly sunny day in Cullman, though we were overcast at times this morning, early. The High was 77, and the Low this morning was 61. It got breezy off and on today, a lot like yesterday. And that's from the tightening pressure gradient ahead of that upper-level trough moving through the Plains. And boy, they've been dealing with some rough weather. 

It is Arkansas and Missouri dealing with more of the storms tonight. That front is moving eastward through Kansas and Oklahoma. And it stretches up through Iowa and the Midwest. 

They sure did have some whirlyjigs out there in Oklahoma between yesterday and today though. 

WEATHER WARFARE HITS OKLAHOMA ⚠️ A powerful tornado struck eastern Oklahoma City early Sunday, November 3, 2024, causing significant damage. The storm downed power lines, destroyed homes, and hurled trucks into buildings. The National Weather Service confirmed at least EF-2… pic.twitter.com/pbcPFHcUeF

— Kristy Tallman (@KristyTallman) November 3, 2024

One particularly damaging tornado hit Southeastern parts of Oklahoma City overnight. 

It will take a while to properly assess that since they've had more severe weather ongoing today.

Ignore the "weather warfare" part of that tweet. I just picked it for the good choice of pics and video. Only the Salem cat controls any of the weather. HAARP only wishes they could hang with him. The truly elite are hidden in plain sight. 

On second thought, if you are inclined towards being paranoid, and actually enjoy it, please . . . be our guest. Who am I to disagree? 

Most of the day tomorrow should be dry around here, so anybody who's going out to vote, I mean I figure it's kind of like a football game, nobody's going to stay home even if the weather is awful. But it is not looking awful. Just partly to mostly sunny skies, breezy again, winds from the South/Southeast, the High temperature about 77, the Low tonight about 60. 

The GFS does bring some showers in here ahead of that front by 6 PM tomorrow, an hour before the polls close. 

But the NAM keeps us dry all the way through Midnight, going into Wednesday morning. And it can be more reliable at this time range. Only going to include a 20% chance of rain tomorrow night. 

Then on Wednesday I think the models are showing enough moisture to justify a 30% chance of rain. Should have a High in the upper 70's, Low in the lower 60's. The gusty winds should die down as the movement of the synoptic scale weather systems have done away with our tight pressure gradient. 

Then on Thursday we'll have similar temperatures but be mostly dry. If we do see any isolated rain, it'll probably be done by midday. 

And we're definitely going to have to watch the progress of Tropical Cyclone Rafael. You can't miss it on the GFS guidance for Thursday at Noon here. We're back to where 18Z means Noon since we're back on Central Time. I dunno why we don't just stick with that all year round. I had a cat one time who meowed to wake people up, and she had to recalibrate every year when the time changed. She'd get confused and yowl an hour early at first. Besides, who needs more daylight? I like the dark . . . I love these evenings already. 

Eh just being contrary. I see all these people wanting Daylight Time all year long, and I'm like nooope, that's totally backwards. 

And next Friday is when the wild card stuff really starts. Because the GFS wants to bring TC Rafael up in our general direction. And that would bring us some rain chances, more than we've seen in a while. 

And it's important to realize the other main global model, the ECMWF, shows this thing located much farther South in the Gulf of Mexico, and has it moving in a westerly direction, not moving northward like the GFS is showing. 

The European tends to be pretty reliable at this time range, and my personal opinion is that it's often handled tropical systems better than any of the other models. 

So things are dicey, but I'm definitely paying attention to the Euro solution here. 

It looks like a High temperature in the mid-70's and a Low near 60 for Friday. Rain chances . . . will go with 20% for now. 

Then on Saturday the GFS has us covered up in rain, which we do need . . . 

While the ECMWF continues to show it moving toward Mexico and not bringing us any rain at all. 

But we do have another cold front coming at us either way. So let's break it down in those terms. 

Looks like a High in the lower 70's on Saturday, Low of 60 or so. Rain chance, I'm going with 30% for now, since these model differences are unresolved, and I trust the European solution slightly more. 

Sunday it looks like a High near 70, Low in the mid-to-upper-50's. And there I'll go with a rain chance of 40% because even if the tropical cyclone does not affect us, the moisture will be moving in ahead of that cold front. 

And then that Monday is actually Veterans Day, a week from today. It used to be called Armistice Day. But the idea of armistice is exceedingly unpopular now. Peeps be wantin' anything but a truce. And actually honoring veterans has never caught on . . . so as you'd notice. But what the hell . . . we do technically have this holiday. Even if it seems like most vets are suffering from shellshock (PTSD) without access to good treatment, some of them struggling to eat and keep a roof over their heads . . . eh but nobody cares about that . . . so let's just talk about the weather for that day . . . when we'll pretend we care about 'em one day out of the year, when it's really just an excuse for some people to get off work or school. How's that sound . . . yeah . . . the weather . . . looks like a High near 70, Low in the mid-50's, and only a low chance (about 20%) of isolated showers lingering. So if you're a veteran living under a bridge using what bottled beverages you can afford to soothe what's left of your nerves . . . let that be a source of comfort to you . . . at least you probably won't get rained on that day . . . or if so, it won't be much. 

Whatever rain we do get during this forecast period will help our drought conditions, which are moderate for most of us, but more severe up around Huntsville. 

Tropical Storm Rafael is keeping things interesting. Not that the mainstream news is boring right now. Just overwhelming. I was really glad to see James Spann doing Weatherbrains tonight, even though it was mostly just a lot of yacking about the business side of news media and broadcast meteorology. It did have its better moments. It got me away from listening to Bill Maher argue with Ben Shapiro. Which I have to say, given their opposite styles of speaking, was kind of entertaining. But I just don't wanna' hear any more of it right now. So that's why I say, thank the Lord for these bits of divine wind, that keep things interesting in a different way. 

So here's the basics:

We have a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. 

Sustained winds are currently at 45 mph with this thing. So prepare for typical tropical storm hazards. Mudslides can be a real problem down there. 

The Cayman Islands are under a Hurricane Warning. And tomorrow night things will get rough there, including potential for a pretty stout storm surge. People there need to be prepared for hurricane impacts ahead of time. 

Next in line is Cuba. 

And while I was writing this, Western parts of Cuba were upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. Just as I was getting ready to mention they were under a Hurricane Watch. It is a warning there. Then as you go further to the East in the country, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Far Eastern Cuba is escaping any advisories, but before you get over that far East, you've got parts of Eastern Cuba under a Tropical Storm Watch. 

The Cuban provinces under a Hurricane Warning are Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. 

The Tropical Storm Warning includes the provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila. 

Those are the areas that need to take this most seriously as this thing approaches Cuba on Wednesday. 

Of course anybody over in the Tropical Storm Watch also needs to use some degree of caution. 

Then Wednesday and Wednesday night, the lower to middle Florida Keys are under a Tropical Storm Watch as this thing moves into the Gulf of Mexico. 

That's from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge. 

Also Dry Tortuga. 

And since I'm looking at the Tropical Storm Watches, the Cuban provinces under that for Wednesday are Camaguey and Las Tunas. 

We don't really know the impacts to the Gulf Coast yet, if any. 

Jamaica and Cuba will have to look out for flooding and landslides. And then heavy rainfall is likely for parts of Florida, but especially the Keys. We'll see about how much rain it brings to other parts of the Southeast. And if it tracks like the European model suggests, it might not be much for many of us. We'll have to keep watching this thing. For now the call to action is for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Central and Western Cuba, and the Florida Keys. Those people are in for some impacts. 

For now, the model guidance is pretty consistent in keeping this at a "Category 1" hurricane and then weakening it back to a tropical storm after it crosses Cuba and moves into parts of the Gulf of Mexico with a lot of westerly shear, that will throw a lot of dry air at this hurricane and likely cause it to weaken. 

The ocean temperatures are also not as high as they were a couple months ago. But I guess sometimes I like to err on the side of caution when we have a bad season like we have had this year, in case a system throws us a curveball. 

The ocean temperatures are a little cooler in the Gulf than down in the Caribbean, and they are not as abnormally high as they were a month or two ago. Considering that and the likelihood of westerly wind shear between 15-25 knots bringing dry air into this hurricane, it will probably weaken as it moves into the Gulf, and if it were to come up in our direction, would probably bring us the rain we need, more than cause a lot of problems. It might not even cause any problems, might just help us out some. 

But it's too soon to tell. I could talk all night, but it's only speculations. 

Our rainfall totals for this forecast period should be between about 1-2 inches. 

Of course, that depends on the track this tropical cyclone takes and how strong or weak it is when (if) it gets up here close to us. 

(Buy Me a Coffee)

CHITTER-CHATTER:

The only political statement I have is that Meghan McCain is by far one of the brightest crayons in the social-issues-that-actually-matter box these days. Which isn't saying much. But credit where it's due. 

I was appalled, when showing a male friend why she had first caught my eye a few years ago, to be reminded of the body-shaming she went through a few years ago. I mean, seriously, since when was that considered a bad thing?? And to think, all these years, I thought Dolly Parton based a lot of her career on that very attribute, when it must have been her banjo-playing all along. I was the only guy who cared about . . . ? . . . 

Ah well . . . I've said my bit. 

But the lady does have an interesting podcast. I guess George Carlin got it right about those Menendez brothers all along. I mean I dunno. Time will tell. But that was a good topic for Halloween. 

I'll confess, I still haven't listened to it. It's just on my list. I found Friday the 13th and Gothika far preferable to any of the media at Halloween. But I do think Meghan McCain could play a really cool horror movie character . . . especially a villain. Long live the "Bad Republican"!

Odd thing, with all the dumb shit they talked in the one debate, neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump brought up the issue of whether or not Meghan McCain gives a better spanking than Stormy Daniels. (I guess only Jimmy Kimmel knows.) Where have standards gone in this country? I mean, if people are still going on about Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky after about three decades have passed . . . in so much detail as to argue over exactly where the cigar went and exactly where his bodily fluids were discharged . . . (see Figures 6.9V-X - though discretion is advised) and Fifty Shades of Grey is so popular . . . why do people continue to ignore the really important issues? 

(Figure 6.9V)

(Figure 6.9X)

Their minds are in the gutter, but it just isn't the right KIND of gutter . . . 

I am available for church functions also. 

(HEYYYY babeh.)

God bless America?