Warm, Dry Pattern Continues

FORECAST:

Friday (High 84, Low 52): Sunny. Warm.

Saturday (High 81, Low 55): Mostly sunny. 

Sunday (High 78, Low 51): Mostly sunny.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday (High 75, Low 53): Sunny.

Tuesday (High 77, Low 54): Sunny.

Wednesday (High 79, Low 58): Mostly sunny.

Halloween (High 80, Low 59): Partly to mostly sunny. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 84, Mínima 52): Soleado. Cálido.

Sábado (Máxima 81, Mínima 55): Mayormente soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 78, Mínima 51): Mayormente soleado.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Lunes (Máxima 75, Mínima 53): Soleado.

Martes (Máxima 77, Mínima 54): Soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 79, Mínima 58): Mayormente soleado.

Noche de Brujas (Máxima 80, Mínima 59): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado.

NOTES:

The National Weather Service in Nashville has started Weather101 Classes again, and this Monday evening's class is on hurricanes. How appropriate. We're catching a breather now, but boy, it got busy for a while in the tropics. 

DISCUSSION:

It was a sunny day in the Tennessee Valley. You really have to gander out into Kansas to find any rain this evening, and there are not many clouds around in the Southeast region, not at all. There's actually a fairly strong line of thunderstorms moving through places like Kansas City, but our local weather remains quiet. Winds were generally out of the North today and staying light when we had any wind. The High in Cullman was 81, and the Low was 52. Jasper had a High of 84 and a Low of 48 today. Haleyville had a High of 82 and Low of 52. Really for late October our average temperature is usually in the 70's, often lower 70's. Huntsville had a High of 85 today and Low of 52. Nashville had a High of 79 and Low of 52. 

We're on the Eastern edge of a frontal system that is bringing showers and thunderstorms to mainly the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Over the weekend, eventually the cold front is going to push Southeast and through our region. Most of the model guidance has had it dry, but some of the latest runs have been showing chances for a little bit of light rain. So let's look at it day by day. But I'll tell you right now, I'm skeptical of any rain chances going in. 

High pressure will remain in control of our weather tomorrow, and it will be another warm, sunny day. A morning Low near 52 again seems reasonable, and the model guidance is dancing all around that number, so I'm going with it. High temperature probably a few degrees warmer than today, at least a degree or two warmer, so about 83-84. 

Then as the front approaches on Saturday, we'll see a slight increase in clouds, but mostly sunny overall, High about 80-82 range and the overnight Low about 55 degrees. 

The NAM is showing a few light rain showers, mainly along the Alabama/Tennessee state line early Saturday afternoon. I started to comment on the ball games, the weather, but who really cares anymore . . . I mean even among major sports fans, who really cares, now that Alabama is back to losing to Vanderbilt? I bet people are drinking a lot more beer watching these games than when Nick Saban was running the show. I'd get the blues if I tried to watch that stuff now. For an off-the-cuff blog like this, I usually skip ball-game forecasts because I remember a story about in the 1980's when a tornado nearly hit Tuscaloosa during the Alabama/Auburn game. They read the tornado warning to people, and they stayed to watch the game, don't think people even got to a safer spot in the stadium or anything. And the tornado missed the stadium. Knowing that, I sort of feel like it's a lost cause. People can deal with any weather that comes up, not gonna' bother 'em. 

But this weather is pretty benign, definitely no chance of any tornadoes. That story just cracks me up. 

I'm going to keep rain chances out of our local forecast for Saturday, but if you're along and North of the Tennessee line, I guess you might have a 10-20% chance of some light rain showers somewhere up there. I don't think they'll survive long into Alabama if they do form. 

Sunday I'm also keeping rain chances out of the forecast. We could see something very isolated, but I think the chance is 5-10% at most. And that's just not really worth worrying about. High temperature should be in the upper 70's, Low about 50 or so. 

On Monday that trough associated with the front will be exiting stage East. And we're looking at sunny skies, a High in the mid-70's and a Low in the lower 50's. 

Upper-level ridging will start to build back into the region. Tuesday skies will stay sunny, a High in the upper 70's and Low in the lower-to-mid-50's. 

Then here we are on Wednesday of next week, a cold front is moving through the Midwest and the Plains. We'll stay dry and warm around here with a High in the upper 70's and a Low in the upper 50's. 

Then on Thursday, which is Halloween, the rain ahead of that front will be to about Memphis if the GFS has this right. 

For now I'm forecasting partly to mostly sunny skies around here with a High approaching 80, Low near 60 or in upper 50's. 

And that's comfortable if you're going out trick-or-treating I guess, maybe a little warm if you're wearing a hooded cloak or something. And we've already had our full moon on the 17th of this month, the Hunter's Moon, so if you're a werewolf, everybody's gonna' know it's a costume. Leave it to me to spoil all the fun eh? 

Beyond Halloween, the model guidance gets murky, whether you go by the GFS or the ECMWF. So I started to do a 10-day-outlook in this quiet pattern, but decided against it since the pattern looks to become more active as we get toward November (which is expected every year), but the guidance is unclear even out to seven days, we'll just have to watch trends to see if Halloween night or November 1st (All Saints Day - or if you prefer to be morbid, the Day of the Dead . . . a magician I really admired named Max Maven died on that day, and his character was morbid and mysterious . . . so I prefer the latter) will need to include any rain chances in future forecasts. I frankly feel like if I tried to bluff through a 10-day forecast here, I'd be selling snake oil. Or giving it away for free I guess. Since I usually forget to include the buy-me-a-coffee link at the end. 

Funny enough, I looked at a couple of 10-day forecasts that go out through next Sunday (November 3rd), and both of them keep us dry, even though both the global models hint that we may be dealing with some rain by that time period. So I'd keep that general idea in mind, that next weekend (not this one, but the weekend after Halloween) may feature some rain. And as warm as we've been, getting into the month of November, some thunderbumpers would be a good possibility. At this point it's not worth worrying about, but just a reminder that November tends to be our secondary severe weather season in North Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. Sometimes the timing varies, a little earlier or later, but usually our secondary season happens some time in November. As you get more into Central and South Alabama, you have to also watch December, or especially for South Alabama, they might keep an eye more on the rest of the Winter months too. But let's focus this blog on up this way. Our main season is in March, April, and May. April is usually the peak. And then in the late Fall, we have a secondary peak in severe weather potential, usually the month of November. So let's keep that in mind . . . without getting worked up about it. There is enough drama going around. But it's good to respect what time of year it is about to be. 

Our ridging might be strong enough to prevent that cold front from bringing us any rain or storms as we get into the new month, but it looks like a close call to me, for now. 

Hurricane Kristy is quite a spectacle out there in the Pacific Ocean, but the good news is that it is not expected to affect any land. By Sunday it is expected to weaken to a post-tropical remnant Low and then dissipate in another day or two, probably some time Monday. 

As of right now, it has maximum sustained winds of 160 miles per hour, which makes it a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The minimum central pressure is 926 millibars or 27.35 inches. 

So it's lucky that it will soon be entering cooler waters with drier air and lots of vertical shear to cause it to weaken. 

I found a used copy of Divine Wind by Kerry Emanuel, a book I've missed since whenever I lost it after leaving a college campus. I really can't remember what happened to my brand-new copy I bought back when I lived in Arab. But at some point after losing my college student status, I also lost that book. And it's a great one. It's really not that long, a hundred pages or so. But you have to slow down and pay attention to what you're reading. It's got all kinds of great pictures, and some of those are paintings people have done of hurricanes. It's got poetry about hurricanes. And it is insanely well-written. After this year's season, I decided if I'm going to maintain some interest in weather like I've been doing, I've gotta' get that book again, and read it all the way through, this time. Anybody who is fascinated by hurricanes should definitely read that book. It's so well-written that I bet even a smart kid could understand it, even if they needed a little help from parents or a good teacher. I remember I found it intimidating all those years ago, but now it's more like I wish there were more hours in the day so I could just get lost in it without neglecting other things . . . even other reading. Most of the stuff I read is not about weather. But this is one of the best weather books ever. And I found out about it from Dan Satterfield's weather blog all those years ago. It's one of those books that reminds you why learning can be fun. And I'm only about two or three chapters into it so far. Can't say enough good things about it. 

Hurricane season lasts through November, and we'll have to keep an eye on things, especially if anything tries to get organized in the Caribbean, but there are no immediate concerns. No tropical activity is expected for the next week on this side of the country, the waters close to us. The only active tropical stuff is that major hurricane in the Pacific that is not going to survive the weekend so well. 

If we see any rain over the next seven days, it'll only be trace amounts. And I doubt even that. 

(This originally contained a lot of personal chitter-chatter at the bottom that I ultimately decided was inappropriate . . . and deleted.)