FORECAST:
Sunday (High 78, Low 55): Partly to mostly sunny.
Monday (High 80, Low 54): Mostly sunny.
Tuesday (High 81, Low 56): Mostly sunny.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Wednesday (High 80, Low 59): Partly to mostly sunny.
Halloween (High 79, Low 60): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Friday (High 75, Low 61): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Saturday (High 77, Low 60): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
PRONÓSTICO:
Domingo (Máxima 78, Mínima 55): Parcialmente soleado.
Lunes (Máxima 80, Mínima 54): Mayormente soleado.
Martes (Máxima 81, Mínima 56): Mayormente soleado.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Miércoles (Máxima 80, Mínima 59): Parcialmente soleado.
Noche be Brujas (Máxima 79, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas.
El Día de los Muertos (Máxima 75, Mínima 61): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas.
Sábado (Máxima 77, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas.
NOTES:
The National Weather Service in Nashville is holding Weather 101 classes again. And as usual, they are free to take, and can be taken online. These are good. You know anybody interested in meteorology, tell 'em about it.
There is still a lot of need for help after Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and the best three sources I know of to look into are FEMA, the Samaritan's Purse, and the Red Cross.
It has been a mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley, a few periods it got a little breezy. But mostly a sunny day with light and variable winds. There are a few light rain showers out ahead of this cold front moving through the area, but some of these echoes are so light that it's probably just virga, rain that evaporates before it even reaches the ground.
The High in Cullman was 82, and the Low was 52. The High in Jasper was 86 with a Low of 48. We're having some fog in the mornings, which is typical for this time of year. But we sure are warmer than average. Some of us would even call this "too hot" for October. Haleyville saw a High of 81 and Low of 52. Huntsville has been seeing more clouds this evening with the front moving through, and their High was 86 today after a morning Low of 55. Nashville actually saw some light rain earlier this evening, as isolated as the rain has been with this mostly dry front, and they had a High of only 70, and so far today, the Low has been 64. It is back to that currently and may drop below that before Midnight, probably will. They were overcast much of the day up there. So even in our quietest month here, you can find interesting little variations in the weather over a pretty focused segment of the great fruited plain.
That cold front will continue to move through the region tonight into early tomorrow morning. Any additional rain we see is going to be so isolated, I wouldn't worry about it. The Low tonight will be about 55, and the High tomorrow will be about 77-78 degrees. This front is not going to cool us off much. It is a weak frontal boundary, but I guess we'll take what we can get for now.
Monday will be a sunny day with a High near 80, a Low in about the 53-55 range.
Tuesday also looks sunny with a High near 80 again, a Low in the mid-to-upper-50's. Monday and Tuesday, we may see some fair-weather clouds around at times because of some South/Southeast winds at times, but much more sunshine than any clouds. Here lately a lot of days, you could barely find a cloud in the sky.
Wednesday will also be mostly sunny. Again a High near 80. The Low may actually approach 60 again but probably staying in upper 50's for most of us.
Then Thursday is going to be interesting. Of course that's Halloween, and a lot of people will be taking their kids out to collect candy. The timing of that cold front is going to be key. Even about Noon or 1 PM (since we're still on Daylight Time), the global models are showing moisture for rain getting into about Memphis. Whether we see that later in the evening around here is a real toss-up for now. We might get by with a dry trick-or-treating forecast, but there is enough a chance for showers or even some storms that I'm going to introduce at least a 20-30% chance of rain here. High should be near 80, Low near 60.
That high pressure ridge may keep us from getting any rain or thunderstorms, but it is a close call. It's more likely to see something Thursday night than during the day, if we do.
Certainly by Friday, the first day of November, we have to consider the chance of some rain/thunderstorms. It looks like the high pressure ridge is going to slow this front down. So for now thinking only a 20% chance of rain for Thursday/Thursday night, then for Friday, increase the chance to 30%. This has an unsettled look, not a washout look. High in the mid-70's instead of up near 80. Similar Low temps.
Then for next Saturday, that chance goes back to just a 20% chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms. And our Highs rebound to the upper 70's.
When we get toward November each year, we do have to look out for the potential of severe thunderstorms, sort of like in the Spring months, can also have problems like that in the late Fall. But for right now, all signals point to weak instability available, so if any stronger storms develop, they should be isolated, and the situation would probably stay marginal. And we may get by without any severe thunderstorm threat at all through next weekend. It's just that time of year when you can't be too careful, so mentioning it in passing, even though the risk of any storms getting out of hand appears very low.
About the middle of next week, a low pressure system is forecast to develop in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The computer models have been showing it. It is expected to sort of drift around with some slow movement to the Northeast, and any development of it is expected to be slow.
Please remember that instead of the scare stories that get more clicks. Be one of the wiser people . . . why not?
They sure are in short supply these days, and sadly, I often can't count myself among the people using the best judgement. That's one reason I enjoy the challenge of having to dissect and analyze things logically here. It makes the rest of the world easier to sort out, like it's easier to sniff out the bullbutter and get away from it.
Out in the Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kristy is not long for this world. It will dissipate before we get to Monday most likely.
So the tropics are quiet again. Hurricane season technically lasts through the end of November, and we do have to stay cautious this year, especially as warm as we are staying. The waters are warm too. Things usually wind down as we get into November, but we've had some late season surprises. I think that happened in 2020, but I'd have to check. I just remember the season was insanely active that year. They ran out of names and started having to use Greek letters.
We may see some rain by this next weekend, but it's kind of dicey, and the best chance will probably be over Northwest Alabama up through West Central Tennessee.
CHITTER-CHATTER:
A couple days ago, I posted a lot of blunt, personal thoughts off the top of my head at the end of a forecast discussion. I still lapse into doing that once in a while. I prefer not to. If I'm going to go on a wild tirade, I'd rather it be something funny, like making fun of all the paranoid conspiracy theories going around lately. Not all of them are about hurricanes. By the way, my offer still stands, that if anybody thinks I'm one of the "elite" who can control the weather, all they have to do is let me know where they live, and I'll see if I can send them a hurricane. But I don't give refunds for this service. Success is not guaranteed, and neither is one's survival if the hurricane does hit as requested. So far, nobody's asked me for a hurricane. Which bums me out. That would have been such a fun conversation. I guess everybody's trying to get in touch with HAARP for their hurricane needs instead.
You know what, that's the end of my chatter today . . . except to say I got hold of a bad pizza roll last night, tasted about like a rotten potato or something. I spit it out. And I don't know if I just undercooked that batch or if I'm going to have to throw the whole bag out. Guess it beats getting one of those bad quarter pounders from Mickey D's here lately.
How's that for deep wisdom of the universe?
I've got nothing better tonight.
And I'm finishing this up hours later because somebody needed help getting peanut butter out of a cabinet, and then I got on the phone with somebody else. Hope this forecast discussion was coherent.
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