FORECAST:
Sunday (High 85, Low 61): Sunny. Patchy fog possible in the morning.
Monday (High 80, Low 60): Mostly sunny. Breezy.
Tuesday (High 75, Low 50): Sunny. Cool.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Wednesday (High 76, Low 49): Sunny.
Thursday (High 75, Low 48): Sunny.
Friday (High 76, Low 49): Sunny.
Saturday (High 77, Low 50): Sunny.
PRONÓSTICO:
Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 61): Soleado. Posible niebla dispersa por la mañana.
Lunes (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Mayormente soleado. Ventoso.
Martes (Máxima 75, Mínima 50): Soleado. Fresco.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Miércoles (Máxima 76, Mínima 49): Soleado.
Jueves (Máxima 75, Mínima 48): Soleado.
Viernes (Máxima 76, Mínima 49): Soleado.
Sábado (Máxima 77, Mínima 50): Soleado.
At 8:43 AM, latest observations show sunny skies in Cullman, though we had some heavy fog that really restricted visibility in the last few hours. (It's that time of year.) The temperature is 68 degrees, and at this early hour, even though the fog has broken up, the dewpoint is the same, which makes the relative humidity 100%. Winds are calm, and when we've had them overnight, they were light from the Northeast. The barometric pressure is 30.19 inches and rising slowly. Visibility is back to 10 miles, but around 7 AM it was down to a quarter-mile.
It is still foggy in Jasper, restricting the visibility down to 4 miles there. The temperature is 68. The dewpoint is 66.2, or 66 if you don't feel like nitpicking and would rather round the number, making for a relative humidity 94%. Winds are calm. Pressure is 30.18 inches and steady.
Skies are fair in Haleyville, most of the haze and fog gone by now, with a temperature of 64.9 degrees, but I'm gonna' go ahead and call it 65. Ditto dewpoint, 100% relative humidity. No wind, so I guess nobody had baked beans in Haleyville last night. Pressure is 30.20 inches/1021. millibars and rising. And God bless these folks in Haleyville for not only being the home of the 911 system, but getting with the times and showing their pressure in millibars! The visibility there is up to 9 miles again.
It is fair and 66 in Fort Payne. Foggy and 68 in Decatur - visibility of 6 miles. Sunny and 70 in Huntsville. Very foggy in Muscle Shoals, with visibility down to 0.25 mile, temperature of 67 degrees. Tupelo is fair and 67 but visibility still only at 7 miles. Good to be careful driving these mornings. Fair and 69 in Memphis. Fair skies and 65 degrees in Nashville.
We are in a quiet weather pattern dominated by high pressure. Things are pretty seasonal, although I wouldn't mind if Mother Nature turned the thermostat down a little more, a little sooner than we've had so far. So let's see what it's going to do.
Today will stay sunny with a High near 85 or 86. Simple enough.
Tomorrow looks about the same, sunny with a High near 85. Humidity levels will be low, and the Low temperature should be about 61 or 62. Could see some patchy fog again in the morning. We have that a lot this time of year.
Even drier air on the way Monday.
A dry cold front is actually pushing through the region then. We'll see a High of only about 80, Low near 60. Might see a few clouds, but not many, and no rain expected at all . . . a good northerly breeze at times.
Another factor that will keep us dry is being on the North/Northwest side of this tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS suggests it could strengthen to a hurricane before it makes landfall, which will probably be along the Florida Peninsula somewhere. Anyway this is Tuesday, and the GFS has it approaching land but still churning over the waters at that point. For a while, this system looked like it was going to be nothing to worry about after all. But now the signals are increasing that it will probably at least be a tropical depression or storm, and could very well be a hurricane in a few days.
Around here, we get a taste of real Fall weather, with a High in the mid-70's and a Low near 50. Some places will likely see upper 40's Tuesday morning.
Ah well, resuming this after some neighborhood drama involving an air conditioner konking out. It is now 10:21 AM.
And it sure looks like the GFS wants to bring the tropical storm or hurricane into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. And this particular run makes it look like a close call for the Florida Bend, which of course just had a major hurricane recently. Let's not get worked up about one model solution though. Overall the guidance has been showing this system ending up in the Peninsula, regardless of how much it strengthens between now and then. We'll look at that in just a bit.
Around here it looks like another sunny day with a High in the mid-70's and a Low around 50 if not in the upper 40's. So our weather looks great, I'm just keeping in mind our neighbors in Florida.
The ECMWF shows landfall definitely well down on the Florida Peninsula, this graphic is valid at 7 AM Wednesday. And the European model does tend to be reliable at this time range, especially for hurricanes or tropical storms.
But we have to factor in the tropical models too before really making a call. Will get to the tropics more after finishing the main forecast discussion for around here.
And it may be a waste of time taking this day by day. Basically the same for Thursday, sunny skies around here, High in mid-70's, Low in the upper 40's or near 50.
Staying under the high pressure ridge Friday, not much variation in the weather from day to day.
And here we are Saturday. This weather pattern locally is even more boring than summer time. But I'll take the temperatures personally. The guy whose air conditioner went out today probably welcomes this even more.
Now let's look at the tropics.
The feature everyone is watching is this broad area of low pressure in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It came out of the Caribbean Sea. By some time tomorrow, this is expected to be at least to tropical depression strength.
And you know what . . . because of that air conditioner drama that I let myself get sort of mixed up in, before I've finished this post, we already have Tropical Depression 14. So I will analyze it below right after I knock these other two hurricanes out of the way.
Hurricane Kirk currently has sustained winds of 120 miles per hour. It is aiming for Northern Europe next week, but the good news is, it is expected to be down to tropical storm strength by then.
Hurricane Leslie is moving Northwest with winds sustained at 80 mph. And it is actually going to move over some of the waters that were cooled by Hurricane Kirk recently having traversed them. So it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm this coming week. If I was in Bermuda, I'd still keep an eye on this thing in case it survives that long or if it were to strengthen again later as it moves in that general direction.
All right, so now we have Tropical Depression 14, soon to be Hurricane Milton. It is moving North/Northeast at the moment. After it develops a good inner core over these very warm waters with low levels of vertical wind shear, rapid strengthening is possible. Hate to say it, but the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula is fairly likely to be dealing with a hurricane by the middle of this coming week, and it may even be a major hurricane.
Regardless of how the winds play out with this hurricane, if I was along the Florida Peninsula, my concern would be with flooding potential and storm surge. Certainly if you were to get an evacuation order later on, I would follow it, considering what we've just seen with Hurricane Helene. Why tempt fate . . .
A Hurricane Warning has already been issued for some of the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and I think this storm may bring significant impacts to Florida by early Wednesday, perhaps as soon as late Tuesday. And it is going to be a close call for the Big Bend of Florida. They are on the northern edge of the general expected track of this thing. More likely it'll be an issue for the Peninsula, further South, but it is a close call. And of course, even getting a few spiral bands from this hurricane would not be particularly welcome for those parts of Florida still trying to get back to normal from the impacts of Hurricane Helene.
So let's look at where the tropical models take this thing.
All right, I think it's pretty safe to say this will be more of an issue for down on the Florida Peninsula, between these tropical model solutions and what we saw earlier from the ECMWF. The Florida Bend may still feel some impacts, but I think the core of this storm will stay South of there. If I had to bet on where this will end up, I'd say the Tampa Bay area. But it's several days from landfall. You have to check the latest forecast every day for things like this. Minor details can make a big difference in what ends up happening.
Most of the models have this as a strong "Category 2" hurricane by the time of landfall. To technically be a major hurricane, it has to be "Category 3" or higher. Hurricane Helene was either a Cat. 3 or 4 at the time of landfall, but I've honestly forgotten, since the windspeeds were not the main issue with that storm. The flooding ended up being far worse, when it moved inland into North Carolina and East Tennessee. Things are horrible up that way still from that storm's inland flood impacts. It was one of those rare times a worst-case scenario played out.
Let's try to keep a cool head about this hurricane, which will be called Hurricane Milton. As of right now, it is still a tropical depression. And while a few models ramp it up to major hurricane status, most of them have it capped off at Category 2 status. So let's review what that means. Wind speeds would be between about 96-110 miles per hour, which is between 83-95 knots. Suppose that happens, that is still a dangerous-enough hurricane. The description of a Category 2 goes like this:
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
So I wouldn't split hair about whether this ends up being a "major" hurricane or not. It is going to be dangerous for at least the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula. Even if people are able to shelter in place, they need to take this one seriously. And as I said, if given an evacuation order, even if it's optional, I believe I would with this one. I just don't have a great feeling about it.
The official NHC track does not include any hurricane watches for Florida yet, and I think they usually wait until 48 hours prior to expected time of landfall to issue those, or hurricane warnings. But it clearly shows that this is expected to become a hurricane within the next couple days and maintain hurricane strength as it moves into the Florida Peninsula. There is a chance it could track further Northward and affect more of the Big Bend of Florida, but in my opinion, that chance is low. They are within the cone of uncertainty though, and we should all respect that. If you know anybody down there who might not have full access to the latest weather, might want to let them know about this several days in advance. Since it is probably going South of there, but it's close enough that it's worth watching. Plus, especially if it does end up being a stronger hurricane, the impacts are definitely not limited to the eyewall. The spiral bands can produce damaging winds, heavy rain/potential flooding, and isolated tornadoes.
But my main concern with this is for flooding and storm surge along the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula. If I was along or near Tampa Bay, I would be getting ready to put my hurricane safety plan into place. And just watch this thing carefully. It's really only 3-4 days off from the most likely time of landfall. So we may see hurricane watches or warnings as early as some time tomorrow, for parts of Florida, I mean.
We do not expect any rain up in North Alabama for the next week. Obviously this hurricane will dump heavy rain along its path, and the Florida Peninsula will have to look out for any flooding issues. Remains to be seen whether this will be a major hurricane in terms of wind, but I think the flooding may be more of a hazard with this one.
Hats off to James Spann for this wonderful essay about how difficult it is to share accurate information in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, because of political fanaticism and general insanity. The latest episode of his podcast, Weatherbrains, also talked about the hurricane in depth. I haven't finished the episode yet, but it's a good one.
If you want more information on how to donate responsibly and need assistance in connecting with an organization involved in disaster response efforts, please email info@ServeAlabama.govor call 334-242-1549. pic.twitter.com/Jcnm5CULMd
— Morgan County (AL) EMA (@morgancoema) October 1, 2024
And I think I'll limit my two cents about relief efforts to referring people to this post by the Morgan County Emergency Management Agency. That e-mail address or phone number will get you good information on how to donate responsibly or otherwise help out. In their better moments, even the warring political figures agree that everybody has to work together in a situation like what has happened from this last hurricane, especially along the mountains of East Tennessee and North Carolina where the worst flooding happened.
SKYWARN classes are available from the Birmingham and Nashville offices. The Huntsville office even has a couple classes coming up specifically for the deaf and hard-of-hearing. And that's certainly important.
That's about all.
After I actually watched that video I linked to from Georgia, I realized it wasn't as much about brotherly love and unity as I made it sound. But let's face it, that's as good as it's going to get any time soon.
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