Sunny and Mild Around Here/Hurricane Milton Looking Extremely Dangerous for Florida Peninsula

FORECAST:

Tuesday (High 78, Low 50): Sunny and cooler. Breezy at times. 

Wednesday (High 79, Low 52): Sunny. Cool in the morning, mild in the afternoon.

Thursday (High 78, Low 51): Sunny. Mild.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday (High 77, Low 50): Sunny.

Saturday (High 76, Low 49): Sunny.

Sunday (High 79, Low 51): Mostly sunny.

Monday (High 75, Low 52): Sunny.

PRONÓSTICO:

Martes (Máxima 78, Mínima 50): Soleado y más fresco. Ventoso a ratos.

Miércoles (Máxima 79, Mínima 52): Soleado. Fresco por la mañana, templado por la tarde.

Jueves (Máxima 78, Mínima 51): Soleado. Templado.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Viernes (Máxima 77, Mínima 50): Soleado.

Sábado (Máxima 76, Mínima 49): Soleado.

Domingo (Máxima 79, Mínima 51): Mayormente soleado.

Lunes (Máxima 75, Mínima 52): Soleado.

DISCUSSION:

At 4:14 PM latest observations show sunny skies in Cullman with a temperature of 79 degrees. The dewpoint is 45 degrees, making the relative humidity 30%. Winds are variable at 7 miles per hour, with gusts up to 14 mph. The pressure is 29.94 inches and steady.

It is sunny and 83 degrees in Huntsville. The dewpoint is 45, making the relative humidity 26%. Winds are from the North at 9 miles per hour, with gusts up to 18 mph. The pressure is 29.93 inches/1012.8 millibars and falling slowly. 

That cold front is down to about Montgomery, and as expected, it only brought us a few clouds and these breezy, variable winds, no rain today. Of course the main focus is on Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico, since it may turn out to be a historic hurricane for the Florida Peninsula. 

Tomorrow we'll have sunny skies, a High of about 78-79, Low tonight near 50. We'll still be breezy at times, winds out of the North/Northeast. 

Some of the first impacts from Hurricane Milton may start in Florida as early as tomorrow night. 

Most the guidance has been consistent in showing it making landfall on Wednesday. Here is the GFS. 

The NAM is a little slower and a tad farther South with its track of the hurricane. 

Taking the GFS/NAM guidance together with the ECMWF, we still have to consider the possibility of Tampa Bay taking a direct hit from the eyewall, which would be a disaster for that part of Florida. This really does not look good. 

There is reasonable agreement even from the Canadian model about the basic track and timing. These two graphics are valid at 7 AM and 7 PM on Wednesday. 

The others above were valid at 1 PM Wednesday. 

Anyway, around here we'll have sunny skies, High in the 78-80 range, Low about 52-54. 

We stay well on the dry side of the hurricane of course, and Thursday will be another sunny day with a High in the upper 70's, the Low in the lower 50's. 

Beyond that, the high pressure will become even more firmly entrenched over the region, and our Highs will be closer to the mid-70's, Lows closer to 50 for a couple days. By Sunday the High could get to about 80 again, but then another dry cold front will bring us back to the mid-70's for next Monday, which is Columbus Day. Skies should stay sunny. 

There is some disturbed weather along the Southeast coast of Florida, but it really is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. Kirk has gone post-tropical and headed for Northern Europe. Hurricane Leslie is expected to drift Northwest over open water and weaken to a tropical storm this week. We're not worried about any of these systems except for Hurricane Milton. 

Hurricane Warnings have been issued for much of the Florida Peninsula, and some people are under evacuation orders. This is one of those storms where you have to respect those, if you value your life. 

As of right now, this hurricane has sustained winds of 180 miles per hour, making it a Category 5 storm, the highest the scale goes. The pressure in its center is 905 millibars, 26.73 inches. This is one of the worst hurricanes you'll ever see, and its overall pattern is reminiscent of Hurricane Katrina in the mid-2000's. Katrina was a Category 5 over water but "only" a Category 3 (winds of 125 mph . . . that's bad enough) at the time of landfall. But its storm surge and flooding impacts were devastating. There were problems with the infrastructure there in that part of Louisiana, so that was another factor in how devastating it was. But this looks like a similar situation. Hurricane Milton is expected to go through an eyewall replacement cycle through tomorrow, so the winds are expected to decrease somewhat, as it also moves into a part of the ocean with more vertical wind shear, but the storm is also expected to get bigger. Florida is already experiencing heavy rains and a flooding risk. When this thing hits, with winds sustained still well above 100 mph, and a very strong storm surge, a large mass of heavy rain bands . . . the Florida Peninsula is in for a really rough ride, especially along the West Coast. 

We had a historic hurricane with Helene, and Milton looks like another one. Everybody knew this season could really be a doosie, and we're seeing that unfold. 

If you know anybody in or near the path of this, please encourage them to take this very seriously, as it is a matter of life and death for whoever gets hit the hardest with this storm. If that means evacuating, if local government officials ask you to leave, by all means, GET OUT. 

No rain around here for the next seven days, but of course, flooding is likely for at least Western parts of the Florida Peninsula. 

People in or near the path of Hurricane Milton need to complete their safety plan by tomorrow night, or at the very latest, Wednesday morning. For a lot of people, that is going to mean evacuating the most dangerous zones. 

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@thatweatherdude

5:28 PM Edit - Added a link for hurricane warnings.