Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Warmer Days Return, Pretty Much Staying Dry

FORECAST:

Thursday (High 86, Low 63): Sunny. Patchy fog possible in the morning. 

Friday (High 88, Low 64): Sunny. Warm with humidity.

Saturday (High 89, Low 66): Mostly sunny. Warm.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday (High 89, Low 66): Mostly sunny. 

Monday (High 88, Low 67): Partly cloudy. 

Tuesday (High 86, Low 66): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.

Wednesday (High 83, Low 65): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. 

DISCUSSION:

It was a partly to mostly sunny day in Cullman with a High of only 81 degrees, Low of 59. Which was fortunate for me since my air conditioner picked today to konk out. A temperamental cat doesn't like that and spends a lot of time cherishing an open windowpane. Winds have been generally light today from the North/Northwest, although we've had a breeze kick up every now and then. The High was 88 in Jasper with a Low of 59. So I hope your a/c units are in good working order down that way. Or that you at least remember how to use an old-fashioned fan and stuff like lemonade. Still sorta' feels like summer temps. And we have some haze this evening in Haleyville, noted on the official observations. Who'd a' thought? But overall it's been a sunshiny day there too, High of 83, Low of 57. 

And let's peek at the rest of the region, not overdo it, but just the two key cities to give us an overview . . . 

Huntsville, the Rocket City, was partly cloudy today with a High of 81 and Low of 64. And there were times today when the Music City, Nashville, had more clouds than sunshiny-ness. WHOA! We'll have to look into that, won't we? Nashville had a High of 85 and Low of 68. Those warmer Low temperatures also happen with more humid air, don't get as much radiational cooling overnight. 




Those extra clouds are coming from an area of low pressure over Eastern Tennessee. You can see another area of low pressure out in the Atlantic, East of Virginia. Those have been efficient rain producers over the past couple days out that way. Around here, that closer of the two centers of low pressure has been producing the clouds mainly North of the Tennessee River. Down here, we are South of the TN River and have seen mostly clear skies. Notice there is not much in the way of rain in our region either. The few echoes showing up are very light, and a lot of that is probably virga, not even reaching the ground. 

Farther North, in the Ohio Valley and closer to the Great Lakes region, high pressure is in control. And out just East of the Rockies, we have a cold front. With high pressure behind it in places like California, Nevada, Arizona. 




The high pressure is going to park itself over our region more strongly over the next few days. Looks like that front will mainly affect the MIdwest and Great Lakes region. 

We might see some patchy fog tonight/in the morning like we have for a few nights now. The Low should be about 63. The High tomorrow should get up to about 86 or 87 under sunny skies. 

Then looks like plenty of sunshine again Friday with a High in the 88-90 range, Low about 63-65 range. 

Weather looks similar for Saturday, might see a few more fair-weather clouds coming back, but it's mainly only weather nerds that stop to think about such details. 





That slow-moving cold front looks like it will finally affect our weather somewhat by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. For earlier in the week, Sunday and Monday, will only mention some clouds coming back. Sunday looks mostly sunny with a High near 90 and Low in the mid-60's. 

Looks like more moisture return by Monday but not enough for rain, just an increase in clouds, High in upper 80's, Low in mid-to-upper-60's. 

And it looks reasonable to bring back a 20% chance of isolated rain for Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid-60's and the High for Tuesday in the mid-80's, looks like maybe dropping to the lower 80's by Wednesday as we have a lot more cloud cover. 

And it's just that interesting time of year when it's still trying to turn Fall. The autumn equinox is this Sunday. 

And early next month, October 3rd through 5th, is Oktoberfest in Cullman. I think the timing is slightly different for other places like Florence that celebrate it. 



The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Gordon are moving Northward through the Atlantic and may redevelop over about the next week. It is expected to interact with a non-tropical low pressure system located to its Northwest. Movement is pretty slow. Any redevelopment should take several days, if it's going to happen. 

An area of the Western/Northwestern Caribbean Sea is being monitored for the potential of a broad area of low pressure developing. The whole thing is hypothetical at this point. This is another one where if we see any development, it is expected to be slow. And if this system does develop, it will move slowly North or Northwest, according to trends we're seeing now. 

By the way, James Spann did an incredible job in his video discussion today, of blowing all the hyperbole/panic speculation about this system out of the water. Or as he called it, "fear porn." I'm pretty sure he borrows that term from Chuck Doswell, a research meteorologist in Oklahoma known for being taciturn, who used to use terms like "disaster porn" or "storm porn." I hardly ever see anything from him anymore, ever since his tribute to Les Lemon in 2020. Anyway, if you know anybody who is unduly worried about this Caribbean system (which hasn't even developed yet), please take the time to watch James's video. It struck that perfect balance of keeping it classy but also calling out the absolute crap for what it is. 


We're not going to see much rain around here any time soon. Even if we see isolated showers Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, most places should only see light amounts. Not expecting more than a trace of rain for most places, amounts generally staying well under a tenth of an inch. 

Other news than weather has gotten my attention more lately. I think it's horrible when you have two assassination attempts on a former president who is running for re-election. Last time something like that happened was with Gerald Ford, two attempts in such a short time-span. I agree with that sheriff in Florida who said that the suspect's behavior was perplexing, that guy Ryan Routh, who was taken into custody. That comment is from Sheriff William Snyder, who serves Martin County, Florida. 

And frankly, the whole mess is more than I care to try to sort out and express any thoughts about publicly. I know somebody who's having open-heart surgery, just got off the phone with her, and I figure there isn't much I can do about the bigger picture. I just don't see a lot going on in the larger world that I like. It feels like a lot of people are more interested in recycling the same old, same old, than trying to work toward any real solutions to move forward. 

I guess since I decided against any serious social commentary at the bottom of this, I will just salute the fine folks at UAB for taking good care of people, whether it's cardiology or more routine stuff. It sort of seems wrong not to comment on such hard-hitting events that everybody knows about. But I guess another way of looking at it is that people are clobbered with it enough from other sources, so maybe if I just post weather stuff here and say little to nothing about insane news items and my personal opinions on them, that would make this site a bit of an oasis. 

I just miss that quality you see on reruns of old shows like Johnny Carson, where people could talk about the serious stuff and also just clown around, and it was kept pretty respectful. The times were not always peaceful by any means, and a lot of people felt like it was worse than the world had ever been. So there is a knack for that stuff. I am just not feeling it right now. So I'm going to mostly stick to the weather. 

And even that is probably going to be sporadic. With the hurricane remnants gone, we're back to the most peaceful time of year for weather anyway. I do think the British press did a better job of reporting the recent news without as much bias than anything I saw on this side of the waters. If I felt sure of everything I was saying, I might write an essay about everything that's going on. But there is so much. And almost every source of information has a strong bias. I have a few I trust more than others, but that's not saying much. 

That whole tiki craze in decades past started during the Cold War. Sometimes things really do get so bad that maybe the best you can do is focus on something else for a while, instead of trying to figure it all out. It might be kind of hard when even Taylor Swift is tied into all the drama, but . . . well, check this out if you like. Some things are still just plain funny. Sometimes I stumble on them. 

Or I guess there is some humor in how my cats demand open windows tonight when the air conditioner is out. They are comical all the way around, and so am I trying to figure them out. 

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has SKYWARN classes coming up, starting next week.

It took a while to finish this post because I got two phone calls in the middle of it. Hope the weather part makes sense anyway. 

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