This doesn't include my homies in Jasper or Oneonta or the Free State of Winston or anything. Basically Birmingham/Tuscaloosa and a few points South. So far showers are staying well behaved up here. It's just really windy, in case you haven't noticed. A friend of mine who was out playing the guitar on his porch said the wind nearly got it out of his hands. I took a short walk to a store and . . . I wouldn't recommend people go out and cross highways in this kind of wind necessarily . . . but it was fun. Reminds me of when the remnants of Katrina blew through and we had no real problems, I just had to move myself, my cat, and my radio off the porch and inside. That house had a basement, but we didn't have to use it for a tornado warning or anything during that event. It just rained a lot and was blustery like now.
We could get lucky like that here, but we have to keep in mind that isolated instances of flash flooding or even a tornado are in the realm of possibility.
But the main threat of an isolated tornado spinning up is around Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, places South of us. For right now.
We still have tonight and at least early tomorrow to get through before we can say we escaped this event without problems.
7 PM - I love the way this air feels. I could totally see myself riding out a hurricane just for the thrill if I lived at the coast. Not saying that's the right thing to do, just that I love the tropical air and the wind gusts. It's a sickness.
To get serious though, I think the cooler, more stable air is helping us out a lot. Storms in Central Alabama even have shown broad rotation at times but not produced any tornadoes so far. And I think we've just lacked that warmer, unstable air to get any updrafts going that can sustain for even a few minutes.
We could still get a surprise tonight or tomorrow, especially early tomorrow, so just in case of anything like that, please be ready to go to your tornado shelter room. That needs to be in a sturdy, site-built house, not a mobile home.
Get into a small room or hallway on the lowest floor, and if you can, make it close to the center of the building. Put some walls between you and the outside if you can, because even if the only damage is a falling tree, that can help you out.
All the trees we've had come down today have just been from the pressure gradient winds, the reason we're under that Wind Advisory. I saw where one fell on a vehicle, but the guy just had a headache and neckache. And it can go a lot worse than that. So far we're making it through this event very well. Any severe weather threat should be over by Saturday, and maybe by late tomorrow (Friday). It's one of those setups where we just want to play it safe.
We're going into the night hours, so make sure your weather radio is set to wake you up if need be. Or if you don't have one, please make sure that your cell phone will get that Wireless Emergency Alert if a Tornado Warning is needed. Not a night to put it in a do-not-disturb mode. Seconds could count if a tornado did happen somewhere in our region. Tropical tornadoes tend to be quick events. If we're lucky, they just blown down a few trees or maybe hit some chicken houses. But that's the luck of the draw. They can hit where people live too. And that's why people need to have a way to get the warning and a simple plan in place.
7:33 - Now the Storm Prediction Center is confirming that even to our South, the tornado threat is looking really low, even within this watch.
Mesoscale Discussion 2064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
Areas affected...central Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 671...
Valid 130028Z - 130230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 671 continues.
SUMMARY...A small area of conditional tornado potential remains over
parts of central Alabama, but probabilities will continue to drop
over time.
DISCUSSION...Prior to sunset, visible satellite showed areas of
agitated CU along a confluence line, and west of a warm front which
now stretches from near Birmingham AL into southwest GA. A moist air
mass remains over the region, with precipitable water in excess of
1.80". Scattered cells, primarily elevated, developed over
east-central AL, and persist this evening.
Despite the moist troposphere, instability is not particular strong,
and, confined to a relatively narrow axis just west of the warm
front. Low-level shear remains favorable in a conditional sense for
rotating storms/supercells, however, it appears unlikely at this
point that any robust convective machinations will develop to take
advantage of said shear.
..Jewell.. 09/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31408685 32018706 32558715 33048737 33298757 33368728
33058653 32488581 32098573 31578589 31298638 31408685
There's the technical discussion above in bold. I doubt we have any problems tonight, but it is still possible. And the schools that delayed opening tomorrow, hey, maybe that's smart, wait and see how things look. Wouldn't want the bus running if the weather's too bad. That's always a tough call. As of right now this event is underperforming. But we'll see how things look tomorrow. Just when you go to bed tonight, even if you're up across the Tennessee line, I would have a way to get warnings - a reliable way, at least WEA on your cell phone - not an outdoor siren. And that's just in case the strong wind shear and maybe some mesoscale features can overcome the lack of unstable air and get a low-topped supercell going enough to spin up a tornado somewhere. It can happen. Even if there is only one in the whole region, if it hits somebody, it's a big deal for whoever it does hit. But overall the tornado threat is looking very low.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central Alabama
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
SUMMARY...A convective band within a moist and strongly sheared
environment will feature embedded quasi-discrete updrafts late this
afternoon into the evening. Several supercells will potentially
pose a tornado risk before instability wanes late this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Selma AL to 45
miles northeast of Montgomery AL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 670...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 20020.
...Smith
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