Some Rain and Gusty Winds on the Way, Clearing with Fall Temperatures Going Into Next Week

Thursday (High 74, Low 61): Rainy. Windy at times. 

Friday (High 72, Low 62): Rain showers off and on. Breezy at times.

Saturday (High 73, Low 61): Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers are still possible. 

Sunday (High 76, Low 59): Mostly sunny. 

Monday (High 78, Low 57): Mostly sunny. 

Tuesday (High 80, Low 58): Mostly sunny. 

Wednesday (High 75, Low 56): Sunny. 

Jueves (Máxima 74, Mínima 61): Lluvioso. A veces ventoso.

Viernes (Máxima 72, Mínima 62): Lluvias intermitentes. Ventoso a veces.

Sábado (Máxima 73, Mínima 61): Mayormente nublado. Aún es posible que haya lluvias dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 76, Mínima 59): Mayormente soleado.

Lunes (Máxima 78, Mínima 57): Mayormente soleado.

Martes (Máxima 80, Mínima 58): Mayormente soleado.

Miércoles (Máxima 75, Mínima 56): Soleado.

It was an overcast day with light rain in Cullman, some fog too, the fog mainly this morning, High of 73, Low of 68. 

That cold front is pushing into Georgia now. And we have the approach of Hurricane Helene. Which has prompted a Flash Flood Watch and Wind Advisory locally for tomorrow. And we even have a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Local Statement mainly affecting Georgia but clipping a few counties just across the Alabama border, for tropical storm force winds and rain tomorrow. This remains quite a situation. Have to say though, the forecast models handled this incredibly well, even before the system got its act together. The forecast has been consistent, far more than usual. Hopefully people in the direct path had time to get ready for this, evacuate or maximize their plans to shelter in place with all the precautions and supplies they need. Tomorrow evening/night is going to be really rough for the Big Bend of Florida and parts of Southern Georgia. The winds of this hurricane are now expected to get up to 130 miles per hour before landfall. Which would make it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, which goes up to 5. It's not worth splitting hairs whether it ends up being a Category 3 or 4 exactly, the bottom line is that major impacts are likely to occur, and catastrophic damage is possible. Anybody who gets an evacuation order needs to get out of there as soon as possible. It's going to move fast, going to be a big storm, and the winds are going to be fierce. 

The forecast track looks exactly on target. Please keep in mind that this is expected to rapidly intensify in the Gulf waters and be at least to "Category 3" strength, capable of major damage, before it makes landfall tomorrow evening/night. So we've got about 24 hours left before this thing starts doing its worst, probably for the Big Bend of Florida and those adjacent parts of Southern Georgia included in the Hurricane Warning. This is very serious business, and I hope people in the hardest-to-be-hit areas were able to evacuate or could at least get to some sort of strong shelter if their only choice is to try to ride this out down there. My strong preference would be for people to just evacuate within the Hurricane Warning. Anybody who ignores an evacuation order with a storm like this is really playing Russian Roulette. I wouldn't. 

Tomorrow is going to get interesting even around here. Let's be clear that we are not expecting any kind of catastrophic weather around here. We are staying on the West side of this tropical cyclone, and the really bad weather happens on the East side. But we'll still feel some minor impacts from the low pressure system associated with the cold front and also from the approaching hurricane. The tropical moisture extends way beyond the eyewall and even way beyond the areas that get the really nasty spiral bands (on the East side of the tropical cyclone). And we're just going to have another rainy day, and it'll get windy at times. We do have to look out for isolated instances of flash flooding, not as much as if we were on the East side of this, but still, the combination of moisture from the front and from the hurricane makes that a legitimate concern, that a few of us could have some issues with that. But overall just a rainy, windy day. High should be in the mid-70's and Low down near 60. 

This sucker is going to move fast. One reason I'm showing the raw model data from the GFS instead of the more colorful, standard weather maps is so that you can see that Fujiwhara Effect (or is it Fujiwara? seen it spelled both ways by different meteorologists, all of them smart cookies) where at first, one low pressure system is trying to rotate around the other, they're trying to rotate around each other. And then by Friday, the hurricane remnants get absorbed into the low pressure system that was already up here, associated with that cold front that brought us the rain last night into today. 

Showers will be gradually tapering off on Friday as we get into the evening and night hours, but overall I'd say still a rainy day, breezy at times, a High near 70 or so, Low of about 60 or so again. 

Then on Saturday, I think our rain chances will come down to about 30-40% bracket, with more sunshine than clouds overall, or at least an equal mix. The wind advisory will no longer be needed by then, but temperatures will stay roughly the same. 

After that, the weather settles down and finally starts to feel like Fall. Sunday we'll have mostly sunny skies and a High in the mid-70's, Low dipping into the mid-50's as some drier air moves in here. 

That trend continues on Monday with a High in the upper 70's, Low in the upper 50's. 

By Tuesday, the first day of October, we may even break 80 degrees again. But remember now, before this rain, we were seeing Highs of 90 more like it was still summertime. So this is a bit of a relief. 

Then Wednesday, after a reinforcing cold front, looks like a dry and weak one, we're looking at sunny skies and even drier air, could actually see a High in the mid-70's and Low toward the mid-50's by this end of the forecast period. 

We could see anywhere from about an inch of rain to 4-5 inches or greater in the Tennessee Valley depending on the exact track of the hurricane remnants and how they merge with the low pressure system already bringing us some rain. The rain should end this weekend though, and next week looks like really nice Fall weather. 

And remember, the major impacts from this hurricane are staying to our East and Southeast. We are fortunate to be on the West side of this one.