FORECAST:
Tuesday (High 89, Low 58): Sunny. Cool in the morning, seasonably hot in the afternoon.
Wednesday (High 84, Low 61): Breezy with increasing clouds. Rain showers likely at night.
Thursday (High 75, Low 64): Rainy and windy. Where thunderstorms form in tropical rain bands, they could become severe.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Friday (High 80, Low 65): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers.
Saturday (High 81, Low 63): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.
Sunday (High 83, Low 62): Partly to mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers.
Monday (High 85, Low 63): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers.
BEACH FORECAST:
Tuesday (High 82, Low 74): Showers and thunderstorms likely. Dangerous rip currents expected.
Wednesday (High 82, Low 75): Windy with thunderstorms likely. Dangerous rip currents.
Thursday (High 85, Low 76): Windy with thunderstorms likely. Dangerous rip currents.
Friday (High ~85, Low ~75): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. Hazardous rip currents still possible.
Saturday through Monday (Highs in mid-80's, Lows in mid-70's): Mostly sunny.
PRONÓSTICO:
Martes (Máxima 89, Mínima 58): Soleado. Fresco por la mañana, caluroso por la tarde, como es habitual en la temporada.
Miércoles (Máxima 84, Mínima 61): Ventoso con nubosidad creciente. Probabilidad de lluvias por la noche.
Jueves (Máxima 75, Mínima 64): Lluvioso y ventoso. Donde se formen tormentas eléctricas en bandas de lluvia tropical, podrían volverse severas.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Viernes (Máxima 80, Mínima 65): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Sábado (Máxima 81, Mínima 63): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Domingo (Máxima 83, Mínima 62): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Lunes (Máxima 85, Mínima 63): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:
Martes (Máxima de 82, Mínima de 74): Probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas. Corrientes de resaca peligrosas previstas.
Miércoles (Máxima de 82, Mínima de 75): Viento con probabilidad de tormentas eléctricas. Corrientes de resaca peligrosas.
Jueves (Máxima de 85, Mínima de 76): Viento con probabilidad de tormentas eléctricas. Corrientes de resaca peligrosas.
Viernes (Máxima de ~85, Mínima de ~75): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas. Aún es posible que haya corrientes de resaca peligrosas.
Sábado a Lunes (Temperaturas Máximas entre 85 y 89 °F, mínimas entre 70 y 79 °F): Mayormente soleado.
It has been a mostly sunny day in the Tennessee Valley. The High in Cullman was 86 after a morning Low of only 54. We've had some cool, dry mornings lately. Jasper saw a High of 90 after a Low of 54. Haleyville had a High of 88 and Low of 53. Huntsville had a High of 88 and Low of 56. Nashville had an especially mild day, High of 83, Low of 53.
We've had several days of dry, mild weather, our first taste of the Fall season really. High pressure has been in place over the Ohio River Valley, and we've enjoyed a lot of sunshine and some cool mornings.
But now we have some action brewing in the form of Tropical Storm Francine, which has formed in the Western Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the Louisiana coast on Wednesday.
So let's look at how that will impact us locally in North Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee.
It won't bother us up here at all tomorrow. Expecting a sunny day with a High in the 88-90 degree range, a Low near 60.
Wednesday the tropical cyclone, expected to be a hurricane by then, will be making landfall on the Louisiana coast. Clouds will be increasing, and it will get breezy, but really not expecting much (if any) rain during the day here, expecting the rain to hold off until the night hours as some of those outer spiral rain bands move in. High should be in the lower 80's and the Low around 60 or so.
Thursday is the day to really watch around here, as the tropical storm (or depression) is moving through Mississippi. We'll be in the best position at that point to get some of those rain bands that can produce flash flooding, damaging winds, or an isolated tornado. And sometimes that depends on how unstable the air gets ahead of those rain bands. But with any inland tropical system that's still dying out, you have to watch for that. And we'll be a pretty good position to get some of those rain bands that spiral around a tropical cyclone. Looks like a High in the lower-to-mid-70's, a Low in the lower-to-mid-60's. Personally I like the way the air feels when one of these comes through, that tropical air. Thursday will be a windy day around here.
Then as the remnants of the system move farther North on Friday, the rain and any damaging winds and such will shift more to the Tennessee side. But forecasting for Cullman, still a 50% chance of rain overall for Friday, High near 80, Low in the mid-60's. And we'll actually still have to keep an eye out for any issues with severe weather, even if that only means localized flash flooding from a heavier rain band.
Then on Saturday, I think it's safe to trim the rain chance back to about 30%, just really scattered showers still possible, High near 80, Low in the lower 60's.
Keep that trend going for Sunday, only a minimal 20% chance of rain, High in the lower 80's, Low in the lower 60's.
And it looks like that ridge to the North will keep the remnants stalled in our general region, or just to our North, so that the rain chances will just come down each day. Will have to let it slowly die out. Monday looks like another day of only that minimal 20% chance of isolated rain, a High in the lower/mid-80's, Low in the lower 60's.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlooked the Gulf Coast and far Southern Alabama, Southern Misssissippi, much of Southeast Louisiana for a risk of severe weather (could see some damaging winds, but mainly this means tornadoes spinning up in those tropical rain bands) on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This outlook technically lasts until 7 AM Thursday morning. And they haven't issued anything beyond that yet simply because they need a little more time to outline the specific threats for specific areas. It wasn't worth putting in their Days 4-8 outlooks. But over the next day or two, I'm confident that they will have to include at least parts of North Alabama in a similar outlook, at least for Thursday, maybe also for Friday.
Thursday is also our best chance at any excessive rainfall, any potential for flash flooding issues. Now the center of this tropical cyclone is expected to be far enough to our West that the best chance of that is probably going to be in Northwest Alabama. But all of us need to keep an eye on that potential as well as the potential for an isolated tornado. And you can even have some damaging straight-line wind gusts with a system like this.
The best chance for severe weather on the Alabama side is Thursday, North Alabama, and then Friday for Tennessee. But these are all basic guidelines. It's always a good idea to watch what the system is doing in real time. Keep a check on it.
Average rainfall totals around here will probably be about 2-3 inches for this forecast period, the heavier amounts more likely over Northwest Alabama and places like Memphis. Of course, it almost goes without saying that the heaviest rain from this tropical storm will be along the Louisiana coast, where it is expected to make landfall as a hurricane on Wednesday.
Since it has been a while since we had any organized severe weather around here, let's go over how to be prepared for this on Thursday into Friday, even though the potential is looking on the lower end. There is a real possibility of someone getting a Tornado Warning overnight, Thursday night even.
So make sure you and your loved ones have a reliable way to get warnings if they are required.
Ideally this means you have a NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup. A service like WeatherCall is a good second layer if you can afford it.
But everyone has Wireless Emergency Alerts on their cell phone these days. Just make sure those are enabled, and if a Tornado Warning is required, you'll get it. These also broadcast Flash Flood Warnings, so if anybody's job requires you to be driving, especially at night, need to pay attention if one of those were to be issued, you never want to drive into flood waters that cover the road . . . or worse, a bridge . . . can get very dangerous in a hurry.
So make sure you can get the warning. A Tornado Warning is only issued if there is good reason to believe a tornado is developing or already happening in that warning polygon area, based on radar data or a reliable report.
Tornadoes that come out of tropical rain bands tend to happen fast. In fact, sometimes they come and go before a warning can be issued, and might just knock down a few trees somewhere. So it's also wise to keep an eye to the sky at times. If you feel like the weather is turning threatening before a warning comes out, sometimes it's good to trust your instincts and play it safe.
This is not a really big severe weather threat, but it's been a while since we've had severe weather. I wasn't expecting any until November, but a hurricane nearby will throw things off.
If you live in a mobile home, I'd consider going and staying with someone who has a sturdier house that's anchored to the ground while this system does its business around here, just to be on the safe side. Try to be close to a sturdier house or a storm shelter of some kind.
If you are in a site-built house and get a tornado warning:
* Stay away from windows.
* Get to the lowest floor.
* Try for a small room or hallway.
* Make that room as near the center of the building as you can.
* If you have time, cover your head in some way, in case of flying or falling debris.
Maybe we won't have any problems out of this system, but we just have to be prepared in case we do, and keep an eye on how things develop as it moves further inland.
And I skipped right over the tropical section. I think it's because I made a separate post about the tropical storm right before this post. But let's look at that now.
The exact track of this may be a little different than what we see above, and if it does deviate, I think it'll go a little farther East. But if you go by that cone of uncertainty, you're in pretty good shape. That's about where this thing is going. Remember that impacts extend well beyond the eyewall of a hurricane. And that's why we'll have to watch the local weather even as the center of this stays well to our West as we get into Thursday and Friday.
People along the Louisiana coast should already be going through their hurricane safety plans. For places like Mobile, still going to have some rough weather, lots of rain and wind, low risk of isolated tornadoes, but the main hazard that I hope people pay attention to is the dangerous rip currents that could last through at least early Friday, when the rain should be mostly out of there. Even tomorrow, I wouldn't try surfing or swimming down there. Unless you really know what you're doing and have somebody nearby who could rescue you. But even then . . . nah, I wouldn't risk it. Wait until the rip currents are back to normal, and take your chances teasing a jellyfish instead.
Couldn't resist a joke at the end. I'm not at 100% for this post, just noticed how quickly the tropical thing was escalating and decided to do one. So if you notice a mistake, please let me know, so I can fix it.
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