FORECAST:
Wednesday (High 84, Low 62): Breezy with increasing clouds. Isolated showers are possible during the day, then rain will become increasingly likely through the night.
Thursday (High 75, Low 64): Rainy and windy. There is a low risk of localized flash flooding or an isolated tornado.
Friday (High 79, Low 66): Showers still likely with periods of gusty winds. An isolated tornado is still possible.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Saturday (High 80, Low 65): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers.
Sunday (High 81, Low 63): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers.
Monday (High 83, Low 62): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.
Tuesday (High 85, Low 63): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of showers.
BEACH FORECAST:
Wednesday (High 81, Low 72): Tropical Storm Warning.
Thursday (High 85, Low 74): Tropical storm conditions still possible, at least early in the day. Windy with rain and thunderstorms likely - a few possibly severe.
Friday (High 86, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday (High 87, Low 71): Sunny.
Sunday through Tuesday (High ~85, Low ~70): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm.
PRONÓSTICO:
Miércoles (Máxima de 84, Mínima de 62): Ventoso con nubosidad creciente. Es posible que haya lluvias aisladas durante el día, luego habrá más probabilidad de lluvia durante la noche.
Jueves (Máxima de 75, Mínima de 64): Lluvioso y ventoso. Existe un riesgo bajo de inundaciones repentinas localizadas o un tornado aislado.
Viernes (Máxima de 79, Mínima de 66): Aún es probable que haya lluvias con períodos de vientos racheados. Aún es posible que haya un tornado aislado.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Sábado (Máxima de 80, Mínima de 65): Parcialmente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Domingo (Máxima de 81, Mínima de 63): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Lunes (Máxima de 83, Mínima de 62): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
Martes (Máxima 85, Mínima 63): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias.
PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:
Miércoles (Máxima 81, Mínima 72): Advertencia de Tormenta Tropical.
Jueves (Máxima 85, Mínima 74): Aún es posible que haya condiciones de tormenta tropical, al menos a primera hora del día. Ventoso con probabilidad de lluvia y tormentas eléctricas, algunas posiblemente severas.
Viernes (Máxima 86, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.
Sábado (Máxima 87, Mínima 71): Soleado.
De Domingo a Martes (Máxima ~85, Mínima ~70): Mayormente soleado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas pasajeras.
QUICK NOTE:
If anybody finds a mistake in the Spanish or anything else, as always, feel free to let me know, because even though this remains a volunteer effort, when I put info out there, I insist on it being as accurate as possible, at least when the weather looks somewhat hazardous.
Skies were variably cloudy today in the Tennessee Valley with a light breeze at times. The High in Cullman was 86 after a morning Low of 59.
Of course all eyes are on Hurricane Francine. It has become a hurricane this evening. I'm writing this after 10 PM, spending some time on this. And I tell you what: We'll just start by looking at the tropical situation before looking at deterministic model output for our day-to-day weather here. That's backwards from the order I'd normally do things.
As far as the wide view, we do have a couple disturbances behind Francine. The one designated by the number 1 is probably going to weaken over the next several days as it encounters some drier air. The one designated by the number 2, closer to the Cabo Verde Islands, may very well become a tropical depression before the week is out. We're getting into the heart of the tropical season. So you do have to watch everything closely. This year was expected to be active. And it really doesn't wind down until November some years. But the main focus for now is on Hurricane Francine.
This is only a minimal hurricane, with sustained winds of 75 miles per hour, but some intensification is likely before landfall along the Louisiana coast tomorrow evening. Sustained winds are expected to be closer to 90 mph (80 knots) by the time of landfall. Any hurricane is dangerous is proper precautions are not taken, so people in the path need to either shelter in place, or if evacuation is necessary (and the local government lets you know if it is), get out of the danger zone and farther inland as soon as possible. And there are already some evacuation orders underway down there. I would respect them.
Here is the new experimental design for the NHC track, which I really like, but forgot to post at first. I like how you can see the Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches farther inland with this new design. I hope it becomes their standard after being given an adequate trial period.
Notice that Mobile is now included in a Tropical Storm Warning. Either last night or this morning, I remember it was only a Watch. The forecast track has shifted eastward a little.
Here's a look at the hurricane from the radar in Corpus Christi, Texas. These things are lovely to view from a safe distance.
Tomorrow looks like mainly a day where it's clouding up and becoming breezy. We should see an isolated shower or two while it's still daylight, but not much rain in the area. High should get to about 83-84, Low of about 63-64.
As we get into the late night though, coverage of rain showers will increase until by Thursday morning, even the wee hours, rain showers are likely across the area as we'll start to get the first of those tropical rain bands winding up in our direction.
On Thursday, the remnants of the hurricane (probably will be at tropical storm strength early in the day, weakening to depression strength by evening) will be moving up through Mississippi. And it will be a rainy and windy day around here. It might sort of feel like stepping out into a tropical rain forest.
The position of the hurricane relative to us, where we are in that East/Northeast quadrant, will pose a risk for a few isolated tornadoes in the region, main chance of that being on Thursday and Thursday night. Tropical tornadoes tend to spin up really quickly and not last long, so you want to take shelter as soon as you get a warning or if the weather turns threatening. The good news is that the damage usually is not as significant as some of the tornadoes you see in the Spring or maybe in November, where they stay on the ground a long time. So you can't shelter in a mobile home, but as long as you get into a small central room, away from windows, on the lowest floor of a sturdy site-built house, you should be just fine, even if a tornado were to hit your house. And a lot of these tornadoes from tropical systems end up not hitting anybody, just taking out a few trees. But I would play it safe. If you live in a mobile home, I'd try to spend the day with somebody who has a sturdy house or else find a way to stay close to a storm shelter, or at least a building that offers better protection than a mobile home. Hopefully nothing happens like that, but it's good to be prepared just in case.
The risk for flash flooding from these tropical rain bands is also on the lower end around here, though Northwest Alabama into adjacent parts of Tennessee have a little more of a decent chance at seeing some localized flash flooding. And again, I'd respect the risk, even though it is relatively low. Definitely do not try to cross any water that covers a roadway, in a vehicle or even on foot. You really can't tell how deep it is. As the NWS says: "Turn around. Don't drown."
So we do have those typical hazards like with any tropical cyclone moving inland. But overall Thursday is just going to be rainy and windy, will feel kind of muggy. If you've ever been through a tropical storm or hurricane, you know that distinctive feel to the air.
High should be about 73-75 range, Low about 63-65.
Friday I'm going to go with showers still being likely, the High rebounding to near 80 degrees, the Low in the mid-60's. I think on Friday, the better chance for any of those low-topped supercells in the rain bands (that produce those quick spin-up kinds of tornadoes) will be on the Tennessee side, with a lower risk on the Alabama side. But it is a close call, especially since there is a ridge in place that may impede this dying cyclone's northward progress.
It looks like after that, the remnants will stall out, and our rain chances will simmer down day by day. Saturday I'm going with a persistence forecast for the temperatures and trimming the rain chance down to 40% which means scattered showers in the region.
For Sunday, will continue that trend and trim rain chance back to 30%. High should be about 80 or so, Low in lower 60's.
Then Monday will trim the rain chance to 20%, which just means something isolated is possible, like a typical summer afternoon, really hit-or-miss. High in the lower 80's, Low in the lower 60's, maybe getting down close to 60 with less moisture in the air.
And then next Tuesday, the GFS actually shows us high and dry. But it has a tendency to rush these things. And just from my past experience with tropical remnants, I'll keep a 20% chance of rain in there to be on the safe side. It's seven days out. High should be in lower 80's, Low in lower 60's.
We could easily see rainfall totals of 2-3 inches from this system over the next several days. And of course, as already mentioned, some places that get a heavier rainband, especially in Northwest Alabama, could see localized flooding issues. That risk is relatively low, but it is there. Not something we can afford to ignore.
And we do have that risk of an isolated tornado Thursday or Thursday night.
I suspect some future outlooks will expand this risk further northward, even into parts of Tennessee, the outlooks for Friday, when they come out. Keep in mind that these are basic guidelines and that the exact timing and placement of these tropical rain bands (and their hazards) sometimes comes down to watching the radar and looking out the window.
You do need a reliable way to get a Tornado Warning, not just relying on an outdoor siren.
Ideally that's a NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup. A service like WeatherCall is also great if you can afford it, even as a second layer source of information. Every once in a while, weather radio has been known to have a glitch . . . not very often, but it has happened.
And for a second layer of information, or if you can't afford a weather radio, everybody now has Wireless Emergency Alerts available on a cell phone. You just have to make sure they are enabled so they will wake you up or otherwise get your attention if needed. They usually do not broadcast Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, but they do broadcast Tornado Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings to the cell phones. And these days, even homeless people I've met have cell phones. So everybody should be able to get the warning if they choose to.
Like I said before, if you live in a mobile home, I'd consider staying somewhere else if you can. Hopefully you have a friend or loved one with a sturdy house, or can be close to a storm shelter. Even if you could get into something like a nearby gas station during a tornado warning, that's better than staying in a mobile home. That's where most serious injuries are still happening from tornadoes around here. So try to plan ahead.
If you'll be driving, think about places you could pull over along your route and get inside, away from windows, if a tornado was coming.
And look, this is not a big tornado threat. It's one of those situations where the risk is low, but if something happens, it would be easy for someone to be caught off-guard. We don't typically have tornadoes this time of year. And the weather has been really nice. Some people might think it's just regular rain. There usually is not a lot of thunder and lightning in these tropical bands, even if a tornado does happen. And that's kind of an odd situation around here, for a tornado to develop from what just seems like a rain shower.
So that's why I'm spending some time on it.
If you're in a site-built house properly anchored to the ground or another sturdy building like a school or office building, just remember the basic safety rules that have stood the test of time:
* Stay away from windows.
* Get to the lowest floor.
* Get into a small room like a bathroom, closet, or hallway.
* Make that room as near the center of the building as possible.
* If you have time, shield your head in some way, in case of any falling or flying debris.
This is one of those setups where most people are just going to see a rainy, windy day, but a few people might find themselves in danger. And we have to respect the risk for an isolated tornado or a flash flood problem even if it is low for any one spot.
Silver lining, we do need the rain.
That's about all.
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