So far, aircraft has not found a well-defined center. But based on computer model forecasts, which are unusually consistent, everybody is taking this seriously, could be a major hurricane headed in the general direction of the Florida Bend or Panhandle within the next couple days. Most likely time of landfall is Thursday. Based on what we know now, the Peninsula is more likely to experience tropical storm than hurricane conditions. This is a situation to stay tuned to.
Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
506 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Offshore Waters Forecast for the Gulf of Mexico
Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.
GMZ047-242115-
SE Gulf from 22N to 26N E of 87W including Straits of Florida-
506 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE WARNING...
.TODAY...E winds 20 to 25 kt S of 24N, and E 10 to 15 kt N of
24N. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, E winds
25 to 30 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt late. N of 24N,
E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E to SE 25 to 30 kt late.
Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in E to SE swell late.
Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
.WED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, E winds
40 to 45 kt, becoming E to SE 55 to 65 kt in the afternoon. N of
24N, E winds 30 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft in E to SE swell.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
.WED NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. S of 24N, SE to S
winds 60 to 70 kt, shifting to SW 55 to 65 kt late. N
of 24N, E winds 35 to 45 kt, becoming E to SE 70 to 80 kt late.
Seas 15 to 23 ft in S swell. Numerous showers and
isolated tstms. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.THU...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. S of 24N, SW winds 35 to
40 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. N of 24N, SW
to W winds 65 to 85 kt, diminishing to 40 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 23 ft in NW to N swell.
.THU NIGHT...SW to W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming SW 15 to 20 kt
late. Seas 9 to 14 ft in N swell.
.FRI...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in NW to N swell.
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
.SAT...S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
509 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
GMZ830-850-853-870-873-876-241715-
/O.NEW.KTBW.HU.A.1009.240924T0909Z-000000T0000Z/
Tampa Bay waters-
Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
509 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
* WHAT...South winds 45 to 65 kt with gusts up to 95 kt and seas
25 to 30 ft.
* WHERE...Portions of Gulf of Mexico.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from early Thursday
morning until Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Hurricane force winds and hazardous seas can capsize
or damage vessels and severely reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for extreme conditions before conditions deteriorate
further.
&&
$$
Nine Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL AL092024
508 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
FLZ160-241715-
/O.NEW.KTBW.HU.A.1009.240924T0908Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.SS.A.1009.240924T0908Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal Sarasota-
508 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...
A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere
within this area within the next 48 hours
A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising
water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within
this area within the next 48 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Venice
- Sarasota
- Englewood
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday morning
until Thursday evening
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins early Thursday morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
greater than 6 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Evacuation preparations should be underway.
Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route.
- ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of
your life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by
floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an
extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary
roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems
and barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and
stranded.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- https://www.weather.gov/tbw
$$
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240858
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida
southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including
Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from
north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with
isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of
considerable flooding.
Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result
in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with
minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Ochlockonee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-10 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in
Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the U.S. watch areas late Wednesday and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday in
southern Florida and the Keys, and Thursday in the Florida
Panhandle.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast
of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple
of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of
Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
000
WTNT44 KNHC 240859
TCDAT4
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized.
A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad
circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes
from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level
circulation remains poorly defined. The initial wind speed is kept
at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value.
The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt.
This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves
around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States.
The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as
the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into
the south-central United States. This evolution of the steering
pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to
north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the
northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The biggest change to the
model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower,
with the GFS model faster than most of the aids. However, this
remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall
change was made to the official forecast. Hopefully an ongoing NOAA
G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future
track refinements.
Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the
models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level
low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and
tomorrow. Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for
strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and
warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of
the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance is very close to
the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that
this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.
Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind,
and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches
and warnings are likely later today.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before
it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the
potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west gulf coast is increasing. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by
local officials.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
000
WTNT54 KNHC 240900
TDSAT4
WTNT54 KNHC 240900
TDSAT4
Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve Discusión Número 4
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT martes 24 de septiembre de 2024
Las imágenes de satélite indican que el sistema permanece mal
organizado. Una gran área de convección profunda está en el lado
este de la circulación amplia sin características centrales
definidas, y las sondas automáticas de los aviones de la Fuerza
Aérea y la NOAA indican que la circulación de bajo nivel permanece
mal definida. La velocidad del viento inicial se mantiene a 30 kt,
de acuerdo con muchas sondas drop-off alrededor de ese valor.
La mejor estimación de movimiento inicial es hacia el noroeste a
aproximadamente 7 kt. Se espera este movimiento general hoy mientras
la perturbación se mueve alrededor de un área de alta presión sobre
el sureste de Estados Unidos. Se espera que el ciclón gire
gradualmente hacia el norte el miércoles a medida que los cambios
altos se mueven hacia el este antes de una vaguada de nivel medio
que cae en el centro sur de Estados Unidos.Esta evolución del patrón
de dirección debe hacer que el sistema acelere hacia el norte a
norte-noreste sobre el este del Golfo de México y hacia la Costa
noreste del Golfo hasta el jueves. El mayor cambio en la guía del
modelo de la noche a la mañana es que la media de guía es un poco
más lenta, con el modelo GFS más rápido que la mayoría de las
ayudas. Sin embargo, esto sigue siendo un conjunto de modelos muy
consistente, y se hizo muy poco cambio general al pronóstico
oficial. Esperemos que una misión de aeronaves NOAA G-IV en curso
ayude a proporcionar datos útiles para cualquier refinamiento de
trayectoria futuro.
La cizalladura suroeste continúa sobre la perturbación, aunque los
modelos insisten en que esta cizalladura disminuirá a medida que una
baja de nivel superior sobre la Península de Yucatán se debilita hoy
y mañana. De lo contrario, las condiciones parecen bastante
favorables para el fortalecimiento sobre el este del Golfo de México
el miércoles y el jueves, con el sistema probable que se mueva sobre
aguas extremadamente profundas y cálidas, junto con una interacción
a través de las depresiones favorables, y muchas de las ayudas de
pronóstico están mostrando una rápida intensificación sobre el este
del Golfo de México. La guía de intensidad está muy cerca del
pronóstico de intensidad del CNH anterior y continúa indicando que
este sistema se volverá bastante grande y poderoso antes de que
toque tierra.
Debido al gran tamaño de este sistema pronosticado, los impactos de
marejada ciclónica, el viento y la lluvia se extenderán bien desde
el centro, particularmente en el lado este. Además, la velocidad de
avance rápida mientras cruza la costa probablemente resultará en una
penetración más hacia el interior de vientos fuertes sobre partes
del sureste de Estados Unidos después de tocar tierra. Se han
emitido Vigilancias de Huracán y Marejada Ciclónica esta mañana, y
son probables otras vigilancias y avisos más tarde hoy.
MENSAJES CLAVE:
1. Se pronostica que la perturbación se intensificará y estará cerca
de la fuerza de huracán cuando alcance el Mar Caribe muy noroeste el
miércoles temprano. Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical
sobre porciones del oeste de Cuba y la costa noreste de la Península
de Yucatán con condiciones de huracán posibles.
2. Se espera que el sistema se intensifique en un huracán mayor
antes de que se acerque a la Costa noreste del Golfo el jueves, y el
potencial de marejadas ciclónicas que amenazan la vida y vientos con
fuerza de huracán dañinos a lo largo de la costa del Panhandle de
Florida y la costa oeste del golfo de Florida está aumentando. Se
han emitido Vigilancias de Huracán y Marejada Ciclónica, y los
residentes deben asegurarse de que tienen su plan de huracán en su
lugar, y también seguir los consejos de los funcionarios locales.
3. El potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve traerá fuertes lluvias a
porciones del Caribe occidental, lo que causará inundaciones y
deslizamientos de tierra considerables a través del oeste de Cuba.
Las fuertes lluvias probablemente resultarán en inundaciones
repentinas y urbanas localmente considerables a través de porciones
de Florida, con posibles inundaciones repentinas e urbanas aisladas
a través del Sureste, el sur de Appalachians, y el Valle de
Tennessee el miércoles hasta el viernes. Serán posibles inundaciones
fluviales menores a moderadas aisladas.
POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS
INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENCIAL CICLÓN DE TROP
12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...CICLÓN TROPICAL
24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z...DISIPADO
$$
Pronosticador Blake
*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***
792
WTCA44 KNHC 240900
TASAT4
BOLETÍN
Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve Advertencia Número 4
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT martes 24 de septiembre de 2024
...VIGILANCIAS DE HURACANES Y MAREJADA CICLÓNICA EMITIDAS PARA
PORCIONES DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE FLORIDA...
RESUMEN DE 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
UBICACIÓN...18.9N 83.0W
ALREDEDOR 120 MI...195 KM OSO DE GRAND CAYMAN
ALREDEDOR DE 240 MI...390 KM SSE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NO O 315 GRADOS A 8 MPH...13 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:
Se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica desde Indian Pass
Florida hacia el sur a Bonita Beach Florida, incluyendo Tampa Bay y
Charlotte Harbor.
Se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Huracán para la Costa del Golfo de
Florida desde Englewood hacia el norte y hacia el oeste a Indian
Pass, incluyendo Tampa Bay.
Se ha emitido una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para la Costa del
Golfo de Florida desde Indian Pass hasta la Línea del Condado de
Walton/Bay y desde el norte de Bonita Beach hasta el sur de
Englewood.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:
Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica está en efecto para...
* Indian Pass hacia el sur a Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
Una Vigilancia de Huracán está en efecto para...
* Cabo Catoche a Tulum, México
* Provincia cubana de Pinar del Rio
* Englewood a Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Gran Caimán
* Rio Lagartos a Tulum, México
* Provincias cubanas de Artemisa, y Pinar del Rio, y la Isla de
Youth
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Tortugas Secas
* Lower Keys al oeste del Puente de Seven Mile
* Flamingo al sur de Englewood
* Al Oeste de Indian Pass a la línea del Condado de Walton Bay
Una Vigilancia de Marejada Ciclónica significa que hay una
posibilidad de vida-
amenaza de inundación, por el agua ascendente que se mueve tierra
adentro desde el
la costa, en los lugares indicados durante las próximas 48 horas.
Para una representación de áreas en riesgo, por favor vea el Tiempo
Nacional
Gráfico de Vigilancia/Aviso de Marejada Ciclónica de Servicio,
disponible en
hurricanes.gov.
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones
de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área de aviso, en
este caso dentro de las próximas 24 a 36 horas.
Una Vigilancia de Huracán significa que son posibles las condiciones
de huracán dentro del área de vigilancia. Una vigilancia se emite
típicamente 48 horas antes de la primera ocurrencia anticipada de
vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical, condiciones que hacen los
preparativos exteriores difíciles o peligrosos.
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que son posibles las
condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área de vigilancia,
generalmente dentro de 48 horas.
Los intereses en otro lugar a lo largo de la Costa noreste del
Golfo, incluyendo el Panhandle de Florida y la costa oeste del Golfo
de Florida, deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema. Es
probable que se requieran vigilancias o avisos adicionales hoy.
Para información de la tormenta específica en su área en los Estados
Unidos, incluyendo posibles vigilancias y avisos tierra adentro, por
favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su oficina de pronóstico
del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología local. Para información de la
tormenta específica en su área fuera de los Estados Unidos, por
favor monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico
nacional.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), la perturbación se centró cerca de la
latitud 18.9 Norte, longitud 83.0 Oeste. El sistema se está moviendo
hacia el noroeste cerca de 8 mph (13 km/h). Se espera este
movimiento general más tarde hoy y esta noche, seguido de un
movimiento más rápido hacia el norte a norte-noreste el miércoles y
el jueves. En la trayectoria de pronóstico, se pronostica que el
centro del sistema se moverá a través del Mar Caribe noroeste hasta
esta noche, y luego sobre el este del Golfo de México el miércoles y
el jueves.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera un fortalecimiento durante los
próximos días, y se pronostica que el sistema se convertirá en
huracán el miércoles y continuará fortaleciéndose el jueves a medida
que se mueve a través del este del Golfo de México.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...alta...cerca del 100
por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...alta...cerca del 100 por
ciento.
La presión central mínima estimada es de 1001 mb (29.56 pulgadas)
basada en los datos de sonda de la Fuerza Aérea.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los Mensajes clave para el Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve se
pueden encontrar en
la Discusión de Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado de AWIPS
MIATCDAT4 y el encabezado de la OMM WTNT44 KNHC y en la web en
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
LLUVIA: Se espera que el Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nueve produzca
acumulaciones de lluvia totales de 4 a 8 pulgadas sobre el oeste de
Cuba y las Islas Caimán con totales aislados alrededor de 12
pulgadas. Sobre el este de la Península de Yucatán, se esperan de 2
a 4 pulgadas de lluvia con totales aislados de más de 6
pulgadas.Esta lluvia trae un riesgo de inundaciones considerables.
Sobre el sureste de los Estados Unidos, se espera que el Potencial
de Ciclón Tropical Nueve produzca acumulaciones de lluvia totales de
3 a 6 pulgadas con totales aislados alrededor de 10 pulgadas.Esta
lluvia probablemente resultará en áreas de inundaciones repentinas y
urbanas localmente considerables, con inundaciones menores a
moderadas del río también posibles inundaciones menores a aisladas.
Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia associada
con el Potencial de Ciclón Tropical Nine, por favor vea el Gráfico
de Lluvia Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología,
disponible en hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf y el gráfico
de Riesgo de Inundaciones Repentinas en
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml? ero.
MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: La combinación de una marejada ciclónica
peligrosa y la marea causará que las áreas normalmente secas cerca
de la costa se inunden por aguas ascendentes que se mueven tierra
adentro desde la costa. El agua podría alcanzar las siguientes
alturas por encima del suelo en algún lugar en las áreas indicadas
si la marejada máxima ocurre en el momento de la marea alta...
Ochlockonee River, FL a Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 pies
Chassahowitzka, FL a Anclote River, FL...6-10 pies Indian Pass, FL a
Ochlockonee River, FL...5-10 pies Anclote River, FL a Middle de
Longboat Key, FL...5-8 pies Tampa Bay...5-8 pies Middle de Longboat
Key, FL a Englewood, FL...4-7 pies Englewood, FL a Bonita Beach,
FL...3-5 pies Charlotte Harbor...3-5 pies Charlotte Harbor...3-5
pies Middle River
Para una representación completa de áreas en riesgo de inundación de
marejada ciclónica, por favor vea el Gráfico de Marejada Ciclónica
del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología, disponible en
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles de agua hasta 2 a 4
pies por encima de los niveles de marea normales en áreas de vientos
terrestres a lo largo de la costa sur de Pinar del Rio, Cuba,
incluyendo la Isla de Youth.
La marejada ciclónica podría elevar los niveles de agua hasta 2 a 4
pies por encima del nivel del suelo en áreas de vientos terrestres
dentro del área de aviso a lo largo de la costa este de la Península
de Yucatán.
VIENTO: Son posibles las condiciones de huracán dentro de las áreas
de vigilancia en Cuba y México para el miércoles temprano. Son
posibles las condiciones de huracán dentro de las áreas de
vigilancia de Estados Unidos el miércoles y temprano el jueves. Se
esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en las áreas de aviso en
Cuba y México a partir de hoy. Son posibles las condiciones de
tormenta tropical en el área de vigilancia a partir del miércoles en
el sur de Florida y los Cayos, y el jueves en el Panhandle de
Florida.
OLEAJE: Marejadas generadas por el sistema afectarán la costa sur de
Cuba y la Península de Yucatán de México durante los próximos dos
días. Las marejadas se extenderán hacia el norte hacia la costa
oeste de Florida y la Costa noreste del Golfo el miércoles y el
jueves.Estas marejadas son propensas a causar condiciones de oleaje
y corrientes marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor consulte los
productos de su oficina meteorológica local.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia intermedia a las 800 AM EDT. Próxima advertencia
completa a las 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Pronosticador Blake
*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***
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