Monday (High 78, Low 60): Partly to mostly cloudy with an isolated shower still possible. Patchy fog is also likely, especially in the morning.
Tuesday (High 80, Low 59): Mostly sunny.
Wednesday (High 82, Low 58): Sunny.
Thursday (High 83, Low 55): Sunny.
Friday (High 81, Low 57): Mostly sunny.
Saturday (High 80, Low 60): Partly cloudy.
Sunday (High 79, Low 56): Sunny.
Lunes (Máxima 78, Mínima 60): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con posibilidad de alguna lluvia aislada. También es probable que haya niebla dispersa, especialmente por la mañana.
Martes (Máxima 80, Mínima 59): Mayormente soleado.
Miércoles (Máxima 82, Mínima 58): Soleado.
Jueves (Máxima 83, Mínima 55): Soleado.
Viernes (Máxima 81, Mínima 57): Mayormente soleado.
Sábado (Máxima 80, Mínima 60): Parcialmente nublado.
Domingo (Máxima 79, Mínima 56): Soleado.
We are still dealing with that remnant low, actually where the remnants of the hurricane, Hurricane Helene, merged with another low pressure system that was already parked up in Tennessee. And a quasi-stationary front has lifted from South Alabama up into North Alabama for the time being.
Tomorrow may still feature more clouds than sun overall, it now looks like, and we'll have some fog in the morning. An isolated shower or two is still possible, chance of rain down to only 20%. That's about a 1-in-5 chance of any one spot getting a shower. High should be about 77-78, Low near 60.
Tuesday with high pressure finally moving in again, we should be mostly sunny, High near 80, Low about 59-60.
Tuesday night into Wednesday a dry cold front will push through the region, strong high pressure waiting for us behind it. Wednesday will be sunny again with a High of 80 or so, a Low again in the upper 50's.
Thursday also looks sunny with a High in the lower 80's. With such dry air, the morning should be really cool, Low only in the mid-50's. That's feeling more like Fall. Which it technically is Fall now.
Late in the period we'll see clouds start to increase some with some Gulf moisture that may be associated with (to the North of) another tropical cyclone, tropical storm or hurricane down there. So that will temper our daytime Highs and cause the Low temperatures to rebound, less radiational cooling at night. For now Friday looks mostly sunny, High in lower 80's, Low in upper 50's. Then partly cloudy on Saturday with a High near 80, Low near 60. And then if the latest model guidance is correct (big "if"), a cold front will drop through the area, another dry one, while that tropical cyclone will end up affecting Florida. I didn't show the raw model guidance this time, but it is quite a mess. This is what the GFS is showing now, but attentive readers may remember that the past couple days, it was showing a tropical storm or hurricane hitting around the coast of Louisiana or Mississippi. So I wouldn't get too hung up on thinking you know exactly where this tropical cyclone is going, before it even forms. We had an unusual situation with Hurricane Helene, where just about every computer forecast model known to man agreed on where it was going before it was even organized enough to be called a tropical depression or tropical storm. But with this one, we do not have that.
We're watching that broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean Sea producing disorganized showers and storms. It will probably form into a tropical depression at some point during the middle of this week, and its movement is to the West/Northwest. Late in the week, as we were just discussing, it'll move into the Gulf of Mexico, and we'll see how much it strengthens and where it goes. Unless the upwelling from Hurricane Helen were to hinder it, I personally would expect it to reach hurricane strength in the Gulf before it makes landfall, wherever it ends up. I don't trust any one solution as to its destination yet.
There is also a tropical wave a few hundred miles off the West coast of Africa that is not producing much rain for now and is not expected to develop over the next couple days, but may become a tropical depression by late this week.
And we have three named tropical cyclones on the board.
Tropical Storm Isaac is moving Northeast and will become post-tropical over the next few days before it dies out over the waters.
Tropical Depression Joyce will be dead in the water by some time Tuesday.
The 12th tropical depression in the Atlantic this season is expected to move Northwest over very favorable waters and strengthen to a large, major hurricane by Friday. If I was in Bermuda, I'd be watching this thing.
The main thing to watch is this tropical cyclone trying to form in the Caribbean again. I think it will become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but it is too soon to make a forecast on where it will end up or how strong a hurricane it will become. You can find plenty of speculation scrolling social media, but I try to keep things more honest and accurate here. If I posted speculations out the wazoo, it would only let people know they couldn't really trust this blog, and get a lot of people upset over wild scenarios that probably would never play out. With what we just had in the Big Bend of Florida, and unfortunately, well inland after that, I think it is even more important to call things straight down the middle.
We will see very little rainfall in our region over the next seven days unless a hurricane were to interfere with the dry pattern. All rain is expected tomorrow, and not much then. Of course the Gulf Coast has to watch that hurricane once it develops (or tropical storm) and may see quite a lot of rainfall because of that.
FEMA has put together a great page about how to donate to help people affected by Hurricane Helene.
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