As expected, the main threat with this tropical cyclone has been flooding with its slow movement.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 080231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
...CENTER OF DEBBY ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto
Beach, South Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North
Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, bringing
the center across the South Carolina coast during the next several
hours. A faster motion toward the north and north-northeast across
the Carolinas and the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states is expected later on
Thursday and on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves
inland. Debby is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic states on Friday or Friday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41013 near Frying Pan
Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 38
mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area and possible within the tropical storm
watch area in North Carolina tonight through Thursday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
South Santee River to Ocracoke Inlet including the Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in eastern South Carolina and 15
inches in southeast North Carolina with considerable flooding
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.
An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.
From the piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.
From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.
For Long Island and the remainder of New England, 1 to 2 inches,
with local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday.
Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of eastern North
Carolina overnight. The risk of tornadoes will shift northward on
Thursday into central North Carolina and central Virginia.
SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
000
WTNT44 KNHC 080232
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Debby has
a large central area of light and variable winds, with bands of
deep convection well removed from the center in both the northern
and southern semicircles. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt
for this advisory, with these winds likely confined to the area of
stronger convection to the southeast of the center. The central
pressure based on surface observations is near 994 mb.
Debby has been drifting just west of due north for the past several
hours with an initial motion of 345/3. This has brought the center
near the South Carolina coast, and it is expected to move inland
during the next few hours. A continued slow north-northwestward
motion is expected for the next 24 h, with the center crossing
eastern South Carolina moving into North Carolina. After that, the
cyclone should recurve to the north and northeast on the east side
of a mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes. The latest track
guidance has shifted a little to the west of the previous guidance,
and the new forecast track is also shifted a little westward.
Little change in strength is expected before the center moves
inland. After that, Debby is expected to weaken, with the system
dropping below tropical-storm strength after 24 h. As Debby
crosses through the mid-Atlantic States, the cyclone is expected
to merge with a frontal system and become an extratropical low by
60 h. However, it is important to note that none of these changes
will diminish the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding across
portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and northeastern United
States during the next few days.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through Thursday along with areas of considerable flooding.
Expected heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding
impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast
through Saturday morning.
2. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the South
Carolina and North Carolina coast through Thursday. Tropical storm
warnings and watches are in effect for portions of that area.
3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 32.9N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 35.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 38.1N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 42.1N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1200Z 46.3N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z 49.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beve
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