That Weather Blog: Some Rain Later This Weekend, Milder Weather Next Week

FORECAST:

Friday (High 94, Low 70): Partly cloudy, hot and humid. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Saturday (High 91, Low 71): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday (High 89, Low 70): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of rain and thunderstorms are possible.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Labor Day (High 88, Low 69): Partly to mostly sunny with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Tuesday (High 85, Low 67): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Wednesday (High 80, Low 66): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 83, Low 65): Partly to mostly sunny with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 89, Low 78): Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Saturday (High 90, Low 76): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday (High 90, Low 75): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 94, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado, caluroso y húmedo. Posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

Sábado (Máxima 91, Mínima 71): Parcialmente nublado a mayormente nublado. Posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 89, Mínima 70): Mayormente nublado. Son posibles numerosas rondas de lluvia y tormentas eléctricas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Día del Trabajo (Máxima 88, Mínima 69): Parcialmente soleado a mayormente soleado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Martes (Máxima 85, Mínima 67): Parcialmente nublado a mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Miércoles (Máxima 80, Mínima 66): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima de 83, Mínima de 65): Parcialmente a mayormente soleado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas.

PRONÓSTICO DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima de 89, Mínima de 78): Probabilidad de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima de 90, Mínima de 76): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo (Máxima de 90, Mínima de 75): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias o tormentas eléctricas.

NOTES:

Today is the anniversary of the day in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina finally weakened back below hurricane strength as it moved into Mississippi.

And our drought conditions have expanded again in the Tennessee Valley, with most of us currently in moderate drought.

DISCUSSION:

Here after we've passed the Noon hour, skies are fair in Cullman with a temperature of 95 degrees. The dewpoint is 70 degrees, making the relative humidity 44%. Winds have been variable today but generally out of the East/Southeast, sustained at 7 miles per hour, gusting up to 13 mph at times. The pressure is 30.15 inches and falling slowly. The heat index is 101 degrees. And we are under a heat advisory through this evening.

Seeing a few fair-weather clouds in Jasper with a temperature of 97 degrees. The dewpoint is 72, making the relative humidity 44%. Winds are variable at 7 mph. Pressure is 30.12 inches and steady. Heat index is 105 degrees, which is right at heat advisory criteria already in the middle of the day.

It is mostly sunny and 92 degrees in Haleyville. The dewpoint is 68, making the relative humidity 46%. Winds are out of the Southeast at 5 mph. The pressure is 30.16 inches and falling slowly. The heat index is 96 degrees.

Decatur is mostly sunny and 95, heat index of 101. Same weather conditions in Huntsville at this hour. Fayetteville is sunny and 93 degrees, heat index of 99. Same for Winchester, also right there across the Tennessee border.

We have that strong high pressure system parked right to our East and enough moisture flowing up from the Gulf of Mexico so that today is mostly just another scorcher, but we could see a few showers and thunderstorms around. We already see some rain on the radar, but it's light and really spread out.

That will be the case again tomorrow, although as the shortwave trough pushes farther to the East and closer to our region, we'll see some increase in clouds and rain chances. Chance of rain tomorrow still about 1-in-3 for any one spot. High should get up to about 94-95 tomorrow after a Low tonight near 70.

Rain chances climb a little more Saturday as the shortwave trough and front approach the region, about a 40% chance of rain instead of 30%, High closer to 90, Low about 70 or so again.

Then on Sunday the cold front starts to drop into our region. Rain chance should be about 40-50% with a High in upper 80's, Low still near 70.

Then Labor Day, it looks like the main frontal boundary will be just to our South. We'll have a reinforcing drier cold front crossing the Tennessee border behind it. Rain chances should drop to about 20-30% with a High in the upper 80's and Low in the upper 60's.

Some guidance has been wanting to ramp our rain chances back up on Tuesday, but for now, only going to bring the chance back up to 30%. Still expecting a High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's. That front will be stalling out, but it looks like it'll mainly affect Central and South Alabama with better rain chances, lower rain chances for North Alabama or up into Tennessee.

Then on Wednesday we may see a better coverage of rain and thunderstorms, thinking more a 40-50% chance. This stalled front may become the focus for a few waves of moisture in the extended. So might have to give the rain chances on Tuesday more respect too. The extended does look unsettled here. Wednesday is probably the day with the best chance of rain. And with the extra clouds and rain, the GFS wants to show a High of only 80, so maybe only upper 70's for Tennessee counties. And in light of that, will adjust forecast, also for Tuesday, probably looking more at mid-80's instead of upper 80's. We're nearly into the Fall season, so the temperature patterns and any rain chances are going to be more dynamic than in the summer where it tends to go back to the same basic pattern.

Then next Thursday looks like the rain chances come back down to about the 40-30% bracket, scattered showers and thunderstorms, a mix of sun and clouds, High temperature in the lower 80's and Low in about the mid-60's.

Beyond that, the guidance is unclear, and I'm not the biggest fan of 10-day-outlooks anyway.

There is a tropical wave in the Atlantic that isn't going to do anything over the next couple days, but may form into a tropical depression early next week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. And you do have to keep a close eye on all of them this time of year, and especially this year.