FORECAST:
Sunday (High 89, Low 70): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Labor Day (High 90, Low 69): Mostly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.
Tuesday (High 88, Low 67): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
Wednesday (High 83, Low 66): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Thursday (High 80, Low 64): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Friday (High 79, Low 63): Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Saturday (High 80, Low 61): Mostly sunny with a 20% chance of a lingering shower.
PRONÓSTICO:
Domingo (Máxima 89, Mínima 70): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que haya varias rondas de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas.
Día del Trabajo (Máxima 90, Mínima 69): Mayormente soleado. Es posible que haya una lluvia o tormenta eléctrica aislada.
Martes (Máxima 88, Mínima 67): Parcialmente nublado a mayormente nublado. Es posible que haya lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas.
PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:
Miércoles (Máxima 83, Mínima 66): Mayormente nublado con un 40 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.
Jueves (Máxima 80, Mínima 64): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.
Viernes (Máxima 79, Mínima 63): Mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.
Sábado (Máxima 80, Mínima 61): Mayormente soleado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias persistentes.
It was a variably cloudy day in the Tennessee Valley with some rain and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. The High in Cullman was 91, and the Low was 70. In Jasper the High was 93 with a Low of 68. Haleyville had a High of 88 and Low of 69.
Elsewhere around the area, Fort Payne had a High of 89 and Low of 68. Decatur saw a High of 93 and Low of 71. Huntsville saw a High of 93 and Low of 73. Muscle Shoals had a High of 93 and Low of 71. Tupelo saw a High of 91 and Low of 74. Memphis had a High of 90 and Low of 74, doesn't look like they caught any of the rain today, just some extra clouds. Same for Nashville, looks like the Music City missed out on the rain today, High of 94 after a morning Low of 72.
The rain and storms this afternoon and evening was just summer moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico even though we've mainly got high pressure in place over the region and a cold front well to our North and West. These showers and thunderstorms just cooked up in the heat and humidity, and got a little more widespread today.
Some of the thunderstorms yesterday and today did briefly reach severe limits though, producing damaging wind gusts that damaged trees and power lines. Today there was damage in Jackson County near Dutton, power lines down. And at Cedar Bluff in Cherokee County, multiple homes had trees fall on them. Have not heard of any injuries. Also part of the roof blown off a barn in Moshat, also in Cherokee County there. That county also got hit yesterday with even some roof damage reported from severe thunderstorm winds.
The weather can always throw a curve or two, and you might have noticed on the radar/satellite images, we've got a weak tropical disturbance that has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. So today we'll look at the tropics first.
We have three systems of concern. None are expected to do anything this weekend. And actually, that one off the West Coast of Africa, we can cross off the list. It's technically there, but it is in a very unfavorable environment to survive very long, much less develop into anything.
There is a broad area of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. And it is expected to keep doing just that over the next week with only a low chance of further development if it were to get moving at some point.
The system that is worth watching closely is the tropical wave located several hundred miles East of the Lesser Antilles that is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It should be to the Lesser Antilles by Monday (Labor Day) and then is expected to move through the Caribbean Sea next week. As it gets into the Western Caribbean late in the week, it could become a tropical depression (or tropical storm). I know there is a lot of hype going around on Twitter/X and other social media about this, using deterministic models like the GFS to speculate on where this thing is ultimately going and how strong it will be whenever it hits somewhere. But if somebody is trying to sell you definite answers involving the coastal United States right now, they might as well be trying to sell you some oceanfront property down in Arizona, if I can borrow a line from the great George Strait. Don't buy into that. Nobody knows what this thing is going to do yet. But my guess, based on what we know now, is that it will be a tropical depression or storm in the Western Caribbean late this coming week. And from there, the serious forecasts will begin. It is still too soon for them right now.
Way out in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Hone is coming close enough to the far Northwest Islands of Hawaii to prompt a Tropical Storm Watch for places like Kure Atoll, Midway Atoll, and other places I'm not in the mood to try to spell this evening. Probably nobody from out that way reads this blog.
Tomorrow that cold front will drift into our region, and we'll see more rain than today, about a 50/50 chance of any one spot getting wet. We'll see a High near 90, Low near 70, because a lot of places will see some sunshine before the clouds and rain moves in. We could see isolated stronger storms capable of damaging trees and power lines again.
Then as the front drifts further South on Monday, Labor Day, looks pretty starved for moisture around here. We could still see an isolated shower somewhere, but overall it should be a dry day, mostly sunny skies, a High near 90, Low of about 68-69.
Tuesday a secondary front is expected to drop in here. But it doesn't show up so well on the raw GFS model data. So let's use a traditional weather map.
And here you can see why scattered rain chances are back in the cards for Tuesday, about a 40% chance of rain, High in the upper 80's, Low in the upper 60's.
Basically the same for Wednesday except that the High is only expected to get up to the lower 80's.
Then Thursday it looks like maybe a slight uptick in coverage of rain, maybe more like 50% instead of 40% chance, with a High near 80 and a Low only in the mid-60's.
Then Friday, basically the same thing. Some places might dip into the upper 70's for Highs during this stretch where we have several rounds of rain and milder temperatures. After all, tomorrow starts the month of September, so in meteorological terms, we'll be into Fall, not Summer anymore.
Looks like only minimal chances of lingering rain, more of a clearing trend on Saturday as the system finally clears out of here, High near 80, Low around 60 or so.
So it's nice to be able to bring news of a change from the summer heat and also a change from the increased drought conditions we've had lately.
We could easily see some places get up to 2-3 inches of total rainfall over this next week.
No comments:
Post a Comment