Been out of the weather loop lately, but catching up here.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 151745
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
200 PM AST Thu Aug 15 2024
...HURRICANE ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA ON SATURDAY...
...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 69.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 69.3 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a slower northeastward or
north-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts
based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Strengthening
is forecast during the next day or two, and Ernesto could be near
major hurricane strength by Friday. Ernesto is forecast to be a
large hurricane near Bermuda on Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on a dropsonde
observation is 974 mb (28.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions likely beginning Friday afternoon.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches in Bermuda with isolated maximum amounts up to 12
inches. This rainfall may result in considerable life-threatening
flash flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread toward Bermuda and
the rest of the Bahamas later today. Swells are expected to reach
the east coast of the United States tonight and continue into
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
000
WTNT45 KNHC 151456
TCDAT5
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 15 2024
Dry air appears to be disrupting Ernesto's attempts to become more
organized. Recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a large dry
slot wrapping into the center of the hurricane. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Ernesto has
found peak flight-level winds of 87 kt and an expanded surface wind
field. Normally, this elevated wind would reduce to a surface wind
speed of 75-80 kt, however, given the broad nature of the storm
and lack of inner-core organization, these winds may not be mixing
down as efficiently as usual. The initial intensity remains at 75
kt for this advisory.
Ernesto is moving to the north at about 12 kt. The model guidance
is tightly clustered and shows the hurricane turning to the
northeast within a day or so while moving through a break in the
subtropical ridge towards a trough located off the coast of the
eastern United States. As the trough lifts by the weekend, Ernesto
should slow and turn to the north-northeast or north, while
approaching Bermuda on Friday night and Saturday. By the end of
the weekend, Ernesto is expected to accelerate northeastward near
the coast of Atlantic Canada. There have been little changes
to the most recent NHC track forecast, which lies just west of the
corrected consensus aid, HCCA.
Model guidance is still suggesting that some continued gradual
strengthening is possible in the next day or so. The deep-layer
vertical wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate, and Ernesto
should be over warm waters for the next few days. However, the
broad nature of the current circulation, coupled with some dry air
ingestion, will likely slow the intensification rate. Ernesto is
now forecast to peak at 95 kt in 24 h, which is near the top of the
model guidance envelope. Beyond a day, the shear is expected to
increase and induce gradually weakening, though the warm waters and
positive interaction with the upper-level trough will likely allow
Ernesto remain a powerful hurricane as it moves north of Bermuda.
Key Messages:
1. Ernesto is expected to approach Bermuda late Friday and be near
the island Saturday and Saturday night. A prolonged period of
strong winds and storm surge is expected on Bermuda beginning late
Friday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
2. Rainfall associated with Ernesto is expected to begin to affect
Bermuda later today and may result in flash flooding Friday through
this weekend.
3. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the
area during the next few days, including over the weekend. Beach
goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf
and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by
lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
during the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 25.0N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 26.6N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 28.5N 67.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.3N 66.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 32.0N 65.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 33.6N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 35.6N 64.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 41.6N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 48.6N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Onderlinde
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