980
WTNT35 KNHC 172336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
800 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
...ERNESTO MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 63.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress
of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area
Sunday morning.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 63.7 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this slow
motion is expected to continue through tonight. An acceleration
toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin on Sunday, with a
turn toward the northeast and east-northeast occurring on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will slowly
move away from Bermuda through tonight and pass near southeastern
Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Ernesto should remain near or at hurricane
strength through Monday. The cyclone will likely become
post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or
Tuesday morning.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda
for the next several hours.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall through tonight across Bermuda,
with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This
rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash
flooding to the island, especially in low-lying areas.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the
Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic
Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are
likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please
consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the
water if advised by lifeguards.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
000
WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024
500 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024
Recent infrared and microwave imagery indicate show that Ernesto's
convective activity is a little thin, with the deepest convection
located in a small band just north of the center. Subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased through the
day, and combined with the earlier data from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft--which only measured 700-mb wind of 74 kt--it is estimated
that Ernesto's maximum sustained winds are near 65 kt.
Ernesto has slowed down during the day while moving away from
Bermuda, and the initial motion is north-northeastward (030
degrees) at 5 kt. This slow motion is likely to continue for the
next 12 hours or so, before the flow increases ahead of an
approaching trough and causes Ernesto to accelerate toward the
north-northeast on Sunday. The cyclone is forecast to turn
northeastward on Monday, and model guidance continues to show the
center passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland late Monday or
Monday night. After passing Newfoundland, Ernesto is expected to
accelerate further toward the east-northeast over the north
Atlantic. The track guidance is very tightly packed through 72
hours, and no significant changes were required from the previous
NHC forecast.
Despite Ernesto's recent weakening, the hurricane will move over
warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius and within a light-shear
environment for the next 24 hours or so. The storm's current broad
structure may not allow for significant strengthening within this
otherwise favorable environment, but many of the dynamical
hurricane models, global models, and consensus aids suggest that
Ernesto could re-intensity by 5-10 kt over the next day or so.
This is reflected in the official intensity forecast. Weakening
should begin by 48 hours due increasing shear and Ernesto moving
over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the cyclone is
likely to become post-tropical by 60 hours while it is passing near
southeastern Newfoundland. The GFS and ECMWF models indicate that
dissipation should occur by day 4 when the circulation opens up
into a trough over the north Atlantic.
Key Messages:
1. Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are
not over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and
battering waves should continue through tonight. The heavy rains
will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding,
especially in low-lying areas on the island.
2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S.
East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect
the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that
there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip
currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards.
Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of
southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 33.3N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 34.3N 63.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 36.5N 62.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 39.5N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 43.0N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 48.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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