Some Rain to Break Up the Heat Midweek

FORECAST:

Monday (High 93, Low 70): Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 92, Low 71): Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Wednesday (High 92, Low 72): Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Thursday (High 87, Low 70): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Friday (High 88, Low 69): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Saturday (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday (High 89, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Monday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Tuesday (High 89, Low 71): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Wednesday (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION:

Skies were partly to mostly sunny in Cullman today, and then we had a thunderstorm cool us off in the afternoon. The High was 93, and the Low was 68. 

We're going to continue in this pattern for a while, with mostly high pressure over the region the next few days. And there's going to be enough Gulf moisture to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms, pretty typical summer stuff. 

Should see a 20% chance of rain tomorrow, High about 92-93, Low near 70. 

Same thing Tuesday, High in lower 90's, Low of 70 or so, rain chances just that minimal summer standard of 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. 

Then rain chances increase Wednesday and Thursday as a front sags into the region. 

Looks like a 30% chance of rain Wednesday with a High in lower 90's still, Low in lower 70's. 

Then Thursday, bumping the rain chance up to 50% with enough coverage of clouds and rain to knock our High temperature down into the upper 80's. Low should be near 70. 

Then going into the weekend, the front stalls out. 

Going with a 40% chance of rain for Friday, a High again in the upper 80's, Low in upper 60's. Some guidance has been showing mid-or-lower-80's, but I think that's overdoing it. 

Saturday can bring rain chance back to 30%, High in upper 80's, Low in upper 60's. 

Then will hold the rain chance at 30% next Sunday. 

Some of the model guidance basically wants to give us a monsoon pattern this week into next weekend, and I just don't think it's going to happen. When's the last time we saw that in July? I don't care how "sick" the ECMWF is. I think the GFS has a more realistic scenario this go-round. And I'm forecasting something that looks realistic. Our widespread/heavy rain time looks like Wednesday night into Thursday. The rest of the time looks like more scattered summer rain and storms. Granted it's great to get some of that this week after the minor heat wave we've had lately. 

And if you care to look out 10 days, July 22nd through 24th look like the same unsettled summer pattern with rain chances only about 20-30% and Highs near 90, Lows near 70. 

And we could see a couple inches of rain over the next seven days, maybe amounts of three inches or greater, more likely to see that in Northeast Alabama. But summer rain is notorious for being randomly distributed around here. 

So our drought won't last long. And temperatures will be more seasonable, if anything milder than we can see a lot in July around here. The tropics are also quiet for now. They'll probably crank up again in August or September, but for now, we can enjoy the lull in the action. 

Speaking of action, yesterday brought news of the first assassination attempt in our country since what happened to Ronald Reagan in 1981. Plus Richard Simmons died. So did Dr. Ruth and Shannon Doherty. Plus some gunshots were foolishly fired in Cullman last night, I think in a fight over a woman, fortunately none of the bullets even grazed anybody. 

As for the national tragedy, hopefully more details will come to light over the next week or so. We all know it could have been worse, so I will simply thank the people who took care of business, what needed to be taken care of. And kept it from being worse than it ended up being. What happened was plenty bad enough. The situation strikes me as bizarre, and I'm not going to presume to know more than the FBI. I'd follow what they say more than speculating. You see a news story, they mention the FBI, I'd go and read what the Bureau actually says. Even they are still trying to figure out exactly what happened here. 

I thought Richard Simmons was a great guy. He helped a lot of people who were desperate. And he did not mind being the butt of many jokes for the greater good. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Shannen Doherty had the kind of physique that not even Simmons could whip nine out of ten women into. She was a beauty with a talent for acting. She lived the American dream but then got ravaged by cancer, which I've found is no respecter of persons. It devastates even the strongest people or the most obviously beautiful. 

The beauty in a life like Richard Simmons's is more subtle, but if anything, it may be more important. Not a lot of celebrities answered letters the way he did and cared about people. Frankly, good luck finding that level of caring at the nearest church or medical clinic, if you're trying to lose weight or tackling anything else really overwhelming. I just thought I'd put in a kind word for him since I have the chance. I wish there were more people in the world like he was, even if his presentation was as goofy as it gets. And with most of the "humor" going around these days being the equivalent of high-school put-downs, I find a goofball refreshing anyway. I've been watching a lot of old clips of a magician named David Williamson for that reason lately. 

No comment on Dr. Ruth. Except that I wonder if she and Hugh Hefner will meet in the afterlife, and how they'll get along. Ah nevermind, I watched too many of those Heather Tesch podcasts. A lot of them sounded like acid trips anyway. 

I had two family members in the hospital this week, and both recovered very well. But this past week made a great case for appreciating life day by day. Sometimes I get nostalgic for the days when life was generally agreed to have some value. And maybe yesterday threw some cold water in our faces as a reminder. 

Unfortunately word did not get around to the Salem cat, who nearly slit my wrist with his teeth and claws tonight, just playing rough. That's the thanks I get for an extra weekend treat I guess. Tis a mere flesh wound.