Thursday, July 18, 2024

Better Rain Chances, Milder Temperatures for a While

FORECAST:

Friday (High 82, Low 68): Mostly cloudy. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Saturday (High 84, Low 67): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 85, Low 67): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Monday (High 85, Low 68): Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Tuesday (High 86, Low 68): Partly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 87, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Thursday (High 87, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Friday July 26 (High 88, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday July 27 (High 89, Low 69): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Sunday July 28 (High 90, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Friday (High 87, Low 76): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Saturday (High 88, Low 77): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Sunday (High 88, Low 76): Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Next Week (Highs in upper 80's, Lows in lower 70's): Partly to mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms each day/night.

PRONÓSTICO:

Viernes (Máxima 82, Mínima 68): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

Sábado (Máxima 84, Mínima 67): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Domingo (Máxima 85, Mínima 67): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Lunes (Máxima 85, Mínima 68): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas dispersas.

Martes (Máxima 86, Mínima 68): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas eléctricas ampliamente dispersas.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 87, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Jueves (Máxima 87, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes 26 de Julio (Máxima 88, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado 27 de Julio (Máxima 89, Mínima 69): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Domingo 28 de Julio (Máxima 90, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Viernes (Máxima 87, Mínima 76): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

Sábado (Máxima 88, Mínima 77): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

Domingo (Máxima 88, Mínima 76): Mayormente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan numerosos chubascos y tormentas.

La Próxima Semana (Máximas en los 80 grados superiores, Mínimas en los 70 grados inferiores): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado con un 50 % de probabilidad de numerosas rondas de lluvias y tormentas eléctricas cada día/noche.

DISCUSSION:









At 2:35 PM skies are mostly sunny in Cullman. The temperature is 82 degrees. The dewpoint is 75 degrees, making relative humidity 79%. Winds are variable at 5 miles per hour. The pressure is 30.04 inches and falling slowly. The Low this morning was 70. 

It is sunny and 88 degrees in Jasper. The dewpoint is 72 making the relative humidity 59%. Winds are from the Northwest at 6 mph. The pressure is 30.03 inches and steady. The Low this morning was 72. 

And while the other observations have lagged when it's really about 10 minutes after 3:00, so I had to use the 2:35 observations, Haleyville's 3 PM observations have actually come in. So they are mostly cloudy and 83 degrees. The dewpoint is 71, making the relative humidity 67%. Wind is variable at 5 mph. Pressure is 30.06 inches/1016.2 millibars and falling. The Low was 70 this morning. 

It is mostly cloudy and 86 degrees in Huntsville. The dewpoint is 71, making the relative humidity 61%. Winds are Northwest at 6 mph. The pressure is 30.01 inches/1015.3 millibars and falling. Just had some rain move through Huntsville, light rain, within past hour or two. The Low this morning was 75. That's muggy. 

Nashville is mostly cloudy and 84 degrees. The dewpoint is 64, making the relative humidity 51%. Winds are out of the North at 13 miles per hour with higher gusts up to 23 mph. The pressure is 30.05 inches and falling. That's 1016.9 millibars. The Low this morning was 73. 

A stalled front has overcome our ridge of high pressure for now and put us under an upper-level trough. And it looks like this pattern will continue for a while, kind of anomalous. Then again so was our heat at some earlier parts of this summer. 

Some of the thunderstorms in the Carolinas today are reaching severe limits with large hail and damaging winds. Around here we're expecting mostly general thunderstorms. 



Tomorrow we'll only get up to about 80-83 degrees, morning Low in the upper 60's. Skies should be mostly cloudy, and rain chance about 50%, so numerous periods of rain or thunder possible throughout the day. 



Then it's the same basic soupy airmass on Saturday if you believe the GFS. 


The NAM is a little more conservative with the rain chances, and I think that's right. Going to cut them back to 40% for Saturday, expecting a High in the lower 80's and Low in the upper 60's again. 



And the weather looks similar for Sunday, will keep the chance of rain at 40%. And temperatures not changing much. Low might float back toward 70 and daytime High get closer to 85 again.



Monday the moisture might be a little more limited, but either way rain chance of 30-40% seems reasonable. The High should get back into the mid-80's. 



By Tuesday I'm definitely seeing a trend that makes me fairly confident in cutting the rain chance back to 30% as high pressure re-establishes enough in the region for sort of a standoff with this moisture. Plus the front looks like it will be lifting farther back to the North by this time. The High should be about mid-80's, Low upper 60's. 



Not seeing any reason to decrease the rain chances further on Wednesday though, holding them at 30%. High should be in the mid-80's, Low in the upper 60's. 



Then basically the same thing Thursday. The temperatures are going to get tricky. Here at days 6-7, we might edge back into upper 80's for Highs and near 70 for Lows. This is an unusual pattern for July. 



Then finally not this weekend but next weekend, Days 8-10, some model trends showing we'll likely return to just isolated rain and more seasonable temperatures. 

But it may be that Sunday before we get there. This is really unusual. 

As are some other things in the news lately. 

The tropics are quiet though, so we should enjoy that while it lasts. It probably will for at least this forecast period. I figure things will crank up again some time in August. 


We could see 2-4 inches of average rainfall totals from this weird weather pattern over the next week. Better chance of any localized flooding issues down at the Gulf Coast, and they'll have to keep an eye on the swells/rip currents in this pattern too.

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