Tropical Depression 3

This may not be as serious as our hurricane on the board, but remember that these heavy rains can be serious over some of the terrain of Mexico. So people within the path do need to take the tropical cyclone seriously even though it is not expected to reach hurricane strength.  

000

WTNT33 KNHC 302329

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032024

700 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF

EASTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.8N 95.6W

ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within

the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three

was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 95.6 West.  The

depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this

general motion should continue until it dissipates over eastern

Mexico late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 

Some strengthening is expected, and the cyclone is forecast to 

become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast later tonight. 

The system is expected to weaken and dissipate after it moves inland 

over eastern Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rainfall

totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of eastern Mexico into

Monday, with localized maximum totals of 15 inches possible.  This

rainfall will result in areas of flooding, with mudslides possible

in areas of higher terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding

associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National

Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area

later tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

038 

WTNT43 KNHC 302046

TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032024

400 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite-derived winds

indicate that the low-pressure system that emerged over the

southeastern Bay of Campeche this morning has become sufficiently

organized to be classified as a tropical depression, the third

tropical cyclone of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Conventional satellite imagery shows developing curved bands in the

northwest and northeast quadrants with a recent deep burst of

convection near the surface center.  Based on the wind data, this

advisory's initial intensity is set at 30 kt.

The surrounding environment appears conducive for some

strengthening before the tropical cyclone moves inland early

Monday.  Subsequently, the official intensity forecast calls for

the system to become a tropical storm before landfall and this

agrees with the global models and the SHIPS statistical guidance.

Afterward, the circulation is very likely to dissipate over the

mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico by Monday night.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt, along

the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge over the

north-central Gulf coast.  The depression should continue in this

general motion and is expected to approach the coast of eastern

Mexico tonight and move inland early Monday.  The official NHC

track forecast is based on a blend of the global models.

Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a

tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within

the state of Veracruz.

The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be

heavy rainfall, which will result in life-threatening flash floods

and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico and into Monday.

Key message:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern 

Mexico into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher 

terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 19.7N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  01/0600Z 20.0N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST

 24H  01/1800Z 20.2N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Roberts

659 

WTNT53 KNHC 302049

TDSAT3



Depresión Tropical Tres Discusión Número 1

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL032024

400 PM CDT domingo 30 de junio de 2024

Los datos de reconocimiento de aviones y los vientos derivados de

satélites indican que el sistema de baja presión que emergió sobre

el sureste de la Bahía de Campeche esta mañana se ha vuelto lo

suficientemente organizado como para ser classificado como una

depresión tropical, el tercer ciclón tropical de la temporada de

huracanes del Atlántico 2024. Las imágenes de satélite

convencionales muestran bandas curvas en desarrollo en los

cuadrantes noroeste y noreste con una reciente ráfaga profunda de

convección cerca del centro de la superficie. Basado en los datos de

viento, la intensidad inicial de esta advertencia se establece en 30

kt.

El ambiente circundante parece propicio para algún fortalecimiento

antes de que el ciclón tropical se mueva tierra adentro temprano el

lunes. Posteriormente, el pronóstico de intensidad oficial pide que

el sistema se convierta en una tormenta tropical antes de que toque

tierra y esto está de acuerdo con los modelos globales y la guía

estadística de SHIPS. Después, es muy probable que la circulación se

disipe sobre el terreno montañoso del este de México para el lunes

por la noche.

Se estima que el movimiento inicial es hacia el oeste, o 280/10 kt,

a lo largo de la periferia sur de una cresta troposférica media

sobre la costa norte y centro del Golfo. La depresión debe continuar

en este movimiento general y se espera que se acerque a la costa del

este de México esta noche y se mueva tierra adentro temprano el

lunes. El pronóstico de la trayectoria oficial del NHC se basa en

una mezcla de los modelos globales.

Basado en el pronóstico, el Gobierno de México ha emitido un aviso

de tormenta tropical para una porción de la costa de México dentro

del estado de Veracruz.

Se espera que el peligro primario associado con este sistema sea

fuertes lluvias, que resultará en inundaciones repentinas y

deslizamientos de lodo que amenazan la vida sobre porciones del este

de México y hasta el lunes.

Mensaje clave:

1. Las fuertes lluvias resultarán en áreas de inundaciones a través

del este de México hasta el lunes, con posibles deslizamientos de

tierra en áreas de terreno más alto.

POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 30/2100Z 19.7N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

 12H 01/0600Z 20.0N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...EN LA COSTA

 24H 01/1800Z 20.2N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H 02/0600Z...DISIPADO

$$

Pronosticador Roberts

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

318 

WTCA43 KNHC 302330

TASAT3



BOLETÍN

Depresión Tropical Tres Advertencia Intermedia Número 1A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL032024

700 PM CDT domingo 30 de junio de 2024

...DEPRESIÓN MOVIÉNDOSE HACIA LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DE MÉXICO...

...POTENCIAL DE FUERTES LLUVIAS E INUNDACIONES SOBRE PORCIONES DE

ESTE DE MÉXICO...

RESUMEN DE 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...19.8N 95.6W

ALREDEDOR 145 MI...230 KM SE DE TUXPAN MÉXICO

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O 280 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

Ninguno.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Cabo Rojo a Puerto Veracruz.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área bajo aviso, en

este caso dentro de las próximas 12 horas.

Para información de la tormenta específica en su área, por favor

monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical Tres se

localizó cerca de la latitud 19.8 Norte, longitud 95.6 Oeste. La

depresión se está moviendo hacia el oeste cerca de 12 mph (19 km/h)

y este movimiento general debe continuar hasta que se disipe sobre

el este de México a última hora del lunes.

Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con

ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera algún fortalecimiento, y se

pronostica que el ciclón se convertirá en una tormenta tropical

antes de que alcance la costa más tarde esta noche. Se espera que el

sistema se debilite y se disipe después de que se mueva tierra

adentro sobre el este de México.

La presión central mínima estimada es de 1006 mb (29.71 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Se pueden encontrar mensajes clave para la depresión en el Ciclón

Tropical

Bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT3 y el encabezado de la OMM

WTNT43 KNHC.

LLUVIA: Se espera que la Depresión Tropical Tres produzca totales de

lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas a través de porciones del este de México

hasta el lunes, con totales máximos localizados de 15 pulgadas

posibles.Esta lluvia resultará en áreas de inundaciones, con

posibles deslizamientos de tierra en áreas de terreno más alto.

Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia e

inundaciones repentinas associadas con la Depresión Tropical Tres,

por favor vea el Gráfico de Lluvia Total de Tormenta del Servicio

Nacional de Meteorología, disponible en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en el área de

aviso más tarde esta noche.

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 1000 PM CDT.

$$

Pronosticador Pasch

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Category Four Hurricane Beryl Bearing Down On Windward Islands

 

This is unusual for the end of June to say the least, dangerous situation for the Windward Islands going into tomorrow. 

000

WTNT32 KNHC 302350

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024

800 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL CLOSING IN ON THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS...

...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.2N 57.3W

ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS

ABOUT 260 MI...480 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical

Storm Warning for the island of Trinidad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Barbados

* St. Lucia

* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands

* Grenada

* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Martinique

* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominica

* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward

to the border with Haiti

* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican

Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,

the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean

should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.  Additional watches

or warnings may be required tonight or on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located 

near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 57.3 West. Beryl is moving 

toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued quick 

westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 

few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to 

move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the 

southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through 

Wednesday.

Data from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter 

aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph 

(215 km/h) with higher gusts.  Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on 

the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength 

are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to 

remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall 

in the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115

miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data 

is 958 mb (28.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area beginning early Monday morning.  Potentially catastrophic wind

damage is expected where the eyewall or core of Beryl moves through 

portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core 

in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains

are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds

indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be

even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area 

starting late tonight for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for 

parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels

by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of

onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane

warning area.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by

large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of

3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through

Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the

Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable

areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding

associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across

Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of

days.  Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts

of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells

are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$

Forecaster Papin

000

WTNT42 KNHC 302035

TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024

500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

After rapidly strengthening for two days straight, Beryl's intensity

appears to have leveled off.  The extremely dangerous category 4

hurricane has a circular 10 n mi eye with mesovorticies within it.

However, the convection in the eyewall has become a little less

symmetric over the past few hours as it has eroded a bit on the

south side.  The initial intensity is held at 115 kt, which is

near the high end of the latest satellite estimates.  Both the NOAA

and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl

again later this evening.

Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a

strong subtropical ridge to its north.  A continued relatively

quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the

next several days as subtropical ridging remains the primary

steering feature.  Only a minor shift to the north has been made

this cycle, following the trend in the latest models.

Fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes in conducive

environments, and it is expected that Beryl will also fluctuate in

strength for the next day or so.  There is high confidence that

Beryl will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall

in the Windward Islands.  As the hurricane tracks across the

Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind

shear, which should induce a slow weakening trend.  However, it

should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant

hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.  The

NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and in good

agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4

hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very

dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to

local government and emergency management officials for any

preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be

rushed to completion today.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a

life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when

Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest

risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada

beginning early Monday morning.  Hurricane Warnings are in effect

for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the

Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves

across the Caribbean Sea later this week.  A Tropical Storm Watch

has been issued for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican

Republic and Haiti.  Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica,

the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean

should monitor its progress.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 11.1N  56.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

 12H  01/0600Z 11.7N  59.1W  125 KT 145 MPH

 24H  01/1800Z 12.8N  62.6W  120 KT 140 MPH

 36H  02/0600Z 14.2N  66.3W  110 KT 125 MPH

 48H  02/1800Z 15.4N  70.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 60H  03/0600Z 16.4N  74.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  03/1800Z 17.3N  77.7W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  04/1800Z 18.8N  84.4W   85 KT 100 MPH

120H  05/1800Z 20.3N  89.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

244 

WTNT52 KNHC 302036

TDSAT2



Huracán Beryl Discusión Número 9

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL022024

500 PM AST domingo 30 de junio de 2024

Después de fortalecerse rápidamente durante dos días seguidos, la

intensidad de Beryl parece haberse nivelado. El huracán de categoría

4 extremadamente peligroso tiene un ojo circular de 10 n mi con

mesovorciones dentro de él. Sin embargo, la convección en la pared

del ojo se ha vuelto un poco menos simétrica durante las últimas

horas, ya que se ha erosionado un poco en el lado sur. La intensidad

inicial se mantiene a 115 kt, que está cerca del extremo alto de las

últimas estimaciones de satélite. Tanto los Cazadores de Huracanes

de la NOAA y la Fuerza Aérea están programados para investigar Beryl

de nuevo más tarde esta noche.

Beryl continúa moviéndose rápidamente hacia el oeste a 18 kt

dirigido por una fuerte cresta subtropical a su norte. Se espera un

movimiento continuo relativamente rápido hacia el oeste a oeste-

noroeste durante los próximos días ya que las crestas subtropicales

permanecen la característica de dirección primaria. Solo un cambio

menor al norte se ha hecho este ciclo, siguiendo la tendencia en los

últimos modelos.

Las fluctuaciones en la fuerza son comunes en huracanes mayores en

entornos propios, y se espera que Beryl también fluctúe en fuerza

para el próximo día más o menos. Hay una alta confianza en que Beryl

permanecerá como un huracán extremadamente peligroso a través de

tocar tierra en las Islas de Barlovento. A medida que el huracán se

desplaza a través del Mar Caribe, es probable que haya un aumento

gradual en la cizalladura del viento, que debe inducir una tendencia

de debilitamiento lento. Sin embargo, debe enfatizarse que se

pronostica que Beryl permanecerá como un huracán significativo

durante toda su caminata a través de la región del Caribe. El

pronóstico de intensidad del CNH es una actualización del anterior y

en buen acuerdo con los modelos HCCA e IVCN.

Mensajes Clave:

1. Se espera que Beryl permanezca como un huracán de Categoría 4

extremadamente peligroso cuando alcance las Islas de Barlovento.Esta

es una situación muy peligrosa y los residentes en estas áreas deben

escuchar a los funcionarios del gobierno local y de gestión de

emergencias para cualquier orden de preparación y/o evacuación.

Todos los preparativos deben apresurarse hasta la finalización de

hoy.

2. Se esperan vientos potencialmente catastróficos con fuerza de

huracán, una marejada ciclónica que amenaza la vida y olas dañinas

cuando Beryl pase sobre porciones de las Islas de Barlovento con el

mayor riesgo del núcleo en St. Vincent y las Granadinas, y Grenada a

partir del lunes por la mañana. Los Avisos de Huracán están en

efecto para gran parte de las Islas de Barlovento.

3. Se esperan fuertes lluvias e inundaciones localizadas a través de

las Islas de Barlovento hasta el lunes.

4. Se espera que Beryl permanezca como un poderoso huracán a medida

que se mueve a través del Mar Caribe más tarde esta semana. Se ha

emitido una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical para porciones de la

costa sur de la República Dominicana y Haití. Intereses en otro

lugar en La Española, Jamaica, las Islas Caimán, y el resto del

Caribe noroeste deben monitorear su progreso.

POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.1N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

 12H 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH

 24H 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W 120 KT 140 MPH

 36H 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH

 48H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH

 60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

 72H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W 95 KT 110 MPH

 96H 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$

Pronosticador Cangialosi

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

552 

WTCA42 KNHC 302351

TASAT2



BOLETÍN

Huracán Beryl Advertencia Intermedia Número 9A

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL022024

800 PM AST domingo 30 de junio de 2024

...EXTREMADAMENTE PELIGROSO CATEGORÍA 4 BERYL CERRÁNDOSE EN LAS

ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...

...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS Y MAREJADA CICLÓNICA QUE AMENAZA LA VIDA ALLÍ

A PARTIR DE TEMPRANO LUNES POR LA MAÑANA...

RESUMEN DE 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...11.2N 57.3W

ALREDEDOR 200 MI...320 KM SE DE BARBADOS

ALREDEDOR 260 MI...480 KM ESE DE ST. VINCENT

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...WNW O 285 GRADOS A 18 MPH...30 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...958 MB...28.29 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

El gobierno de Trinidad y Tobago ha emitido un Aviso de Tormenta

Tropical para la isla de Trinidad.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Un Aviso de Huracán está en efecto para...

* Barbados

* St. Lucia

* St. Vincent y las Islas Granadinas

* Grenada

* Tobago

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Martinique

* Trinidad

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Dominica

* Costa sur de República Dominicana desde Punta Palenque hacia el

oeste hasta la frontera con Haití

* Costa sur de Haití desde la frontera con la República Dominicana a

Anse d'Hainault

Un Aviso de Huracán significa que se esperan condiciones de huracán

en algún lugar dentro del área bajo aviso. Los preparativos para

proteger la vida y la propiedad deben apresurarse hasta su

finalización.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área bajo aviso

dentro de 36 horas.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que son posibles las

condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área de vigilancia,

generalmente dentro de 48 horas.

Intereses en otro lugar en las Antillas Menores, La Española,

Jamaica, las Islas Caimán, y el resto del Caribe noroeste deben

monitorear de cerca el progreso de Beryl. Pueden requerirse

vigilancias o avisos adicionales esta noche o el lunes.

Para información de la tormenta específica en su área, por favor

monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), el centro del Huracán Beryl se localizó

cerca de la latitud 11.2 Norte, longitud 57.3 Oeste. Beryl se está

moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste cerca de 18 mph (30 km/h). Se

espera un movimiento rápido continuo hacia el oeste a oeste-noroeste

durante los próximos días. En la trayectoria del pronóstico, se

espera que el centro de Beryl se mueva a través de las Islas de

Barlovento el lunes por la mañana y a través del Mar Caribe sureste

y el centro hasta el miércoles.

Los datos de los aviones Cazahuracán de la NOAA y la Reserva de la

Fuerza Aérea indican que los vientos máximos sostenidos permanecen

cerca de 130 mph (215 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Beryl es un

huracán de categoría 4 en la Escala de Viento de Huracán de Saffir-

Simpson. Son probables las fluctuaciones en la fuerza durante el

próximo día más o menos, y se espera que Beryl permanezca como un

huracán de categoría 4 extremadamente peligroso a través de tocar

tierra en las Islas de Barlovento.

Vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hacia fuera hasta 30

millas (45 km) desde el centro y vientos con fuerza de tormenta

tropical se extienden hacia fuera hasta 115 millas (185 km).

La presión central mínima basada en los datos de los aviones del

Cazador de Huracanes es de 958 mb (28.29 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para Beryl se pueden encontrar en el Ciclón Tropical

Bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT2 y el encabezado de la OMM

WTNT42 KNHC.

VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de huracán en el área de aviso de

huracán a partir del lunes por la mañana. Se esperan daños por

viento potencialmente catastrófico donde la pared del ojo o el

núcleo de Beryl se mueva a través de porciones de las Islas de

Barlovento, con el mayor riesgo del núcleo en St. Vincent y las

Granadinas, y Grenada.

Las velocidades del viento en los lados de barlovento de las colinas

y montañas son a menudo hasta 30 por ciento más fuertes que los

vientos cerca de la superficie indicados en esta advertencia, y en

algunos lugares elevados podrían ser incluso mayores.

Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en el área de aviso de

tormenta tropical a partir de esta noche, haciendo los preparativos

exteriores difíciles o peligrosos.

Son posibles las condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área de

vigilancia a partir de esta noche para Dominica, y para el martes

por la tarde para partes de la costa sur de La Española.

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: Una marejada ciclónica que amenazará la vida

elevará los niveles de agua hasta 6 a 9 pies por encima de los

niveles de marejada normales en áreas de vientos terrestres cerca de

donde el ojo toca tierra en el área de aviso de huracán. Cerca de la

costa, la marejada estará acompañada por olas grandes y

destructivas.

LLUVIA: Se espera que el Huracán Beryl produzca totales de lluvia de

3 a 6 pulgadas a través de Barbados y las Islas de Barlovento hasta

el lunes. Es posible máximos localizados de 10 pulgadas,

especialmente en las Granadinas.Esta lluvia puede causar

inundaciones repentinas en áreas vulnerables.

Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia e

inundaciones repentinas associadas con el Huracán Beryl, por favor

vea el Gráfico de Lluvia Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de

Meteorología, disponible en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

OLEAJE: Se esperan grandes marejadas generadas por Beryl a través de

las Islas de Barlovento y el sur de las Islas de Sotavento durante

los próximos dos días. También se espera que las marejadas alcancen

las costas sur de Puerto Rico y La Hispaniola en el próximo día más

o menos. Se espera que estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje

y corrientes marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor, consulte los

productos de su oficina meteorológica local.

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 1100 PM AST.

$$

Pronosticador Papin

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Major Hurricane Beryl Heading for Windward Islands

This is a very unusual situation this early in the hurricane season. We all knew the record-warm ocean temperatures did not bode well. And this is a dangerous situation unfolding for the Windward Islands. 

Upstream, it is now looking like this may still be a fairly strong hurricane by the time it gets to Jamaica. Guidance currently takes it into the Yucatan Peninsula in the long-term, late this week, but of course everyone should keep their eyes on it in case of any adjustments that have to be made to the forecast track. Beyond about three days, the exact track is a lot less certain. This is a crazy, anomalous situation. So the fine folks at the National Hurricane Center will be evaluating everything one day at a time. Right now the main concern is that everyone in the Windward Islands has some sort of a safety plan. I don't remember what kinds of precautions they have in place, but I bet it varies from island to island, because several of those islands around there are governed by different countries. Bermuda does a great job keeping people safe during hurricanes, from what I saw a few years ago when they had a major one. Nobody wants to get hit with a storm like this, and at this point probably the best we can do is spread the word, if you know anybody taking a vacation down there or anything. 

It's one thing to say this is going to be an active season, but this is making weather history. I don't believe this has ever happened before, a major hurricane hitting these islands before we're even into July. 

 000

WTNT32 KNHC 301148 CCA

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024

800 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Corrected maximum sustained winds in Summary

...BERYL IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...

...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE 

WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.6N 53.9W

ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF BARBADOS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning 

to a Hurricane Warning for Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Barbados

* St. Lucia

* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands

* Grenada

* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor

the progress of Beryl.  Additional watches and warnings may be

required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located

near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. Beryl is moving

toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h).  A continued quick westward

to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move

across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the

southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday night and Tuesday.

Aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have 

increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts, making 

Beryl a very dangerous category 3 hurricane.  Continued rapid 

strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is 

expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane 

before it reaches the Windward Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80

miles (130 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force 

Hurricane Hunters is 968 mb (28.58 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area beginning early on Monday.  Devastating wind damage is expected

where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward

Islands.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning

area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area

starting late tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains

are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds

indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be

even greater.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels

by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of

onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane

warning area.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by

large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of

3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight

and Monday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable

areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding

associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across 

Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of 

days.  These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and 

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 

weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

000

WTNT42 KNHC 300905 CCA

TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   7...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024

500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

Corrected for time in Windward Islands in second paragraph

Beryl's structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes 

rapid intensification.  Recent GOES 1-minute satellite imagery 

shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the 

eyewall and a warming eye.  The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt, 

closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be 

too low.  Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to get a 

better estimate of the initial intensity for the next forecast 

advisory.

Now that the core has solidified based on a recent AMSR2 microwave 

pass, continued rapid intensification looks likely over the next 24 

hours while Beryl is over SSTs near 29C and within shear less than 

10 kt.  There's no obvious reason it shouldn't become a very 

powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands.  Thus, 

the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show 

rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely 

dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward 

islands. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will 

likely cause the hurricane to level off in intensity, then weaken 

through about midweek.  The intensity forecast is similar to the 

previous one, but the NHC forecast is raised at day 5 as more 

models are showing lessening shear in the western Caribbean.

The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west, estimated at

280/18 kt.  There aren't any significant track changes from the

previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl

expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for

several days.  Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the

forecast track, and the NHC track prediction is basically an update

of the previous one.

This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward 

Islands, so please listen to your local government and emergency 

management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4

hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday, 

bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening 

storm surge.  Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the 

Windward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the

Windward Islands tonight and Monday.

3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the

progress of this system.  Users are reminded that there is large

uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details

of the track or intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 10.7N  53.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  30/1800Z 11.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH

 24H  01/0600Z 11.8N  59.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

 36H  01/1800Z 12.9N  62.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

 48H  02/0600Z 14.1N  66.1W  110 KT 125 MPH

 60H  02/1800Z 15.4N  70.1W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  03/0600Z 16.3N  74.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

 96H  04/0600Z 17.8N  80.9W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  05/0600Z 19.1N  87.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$

Forecaster Blake

013 

WTNT52 KNHC 300911

TDSAT2



Huracán Beryl Discusión Número 7...Corregido

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL022024

500 AM AST domingo 30 de junio de 2024

Corregido para el tiempo en Islas de Barlovento en el segundo

párrafo

La estructura de Beryl está evolucionando rápidamente esta mañana ya

que se somete a una rápida intensificación. Las recientes imágenes

de satélite de 1 minuto del GOES muestran el desarrollo de un ojo,

con nubes que se enfrían en la pared del ojo y un ojo que se

calienta. La velocidad del viento inicial se establece en 85 kt, la

más cercana a las Estimaciones del Consenso del Satélite CIMSS, y

podría ser demasiado baja. Dos aviones Cazadores de Huracanes están

en ruta para obtener una mejor estimación de la intensidad inicial

para la próxima advertencia de pronóstico.

Ahora que el núcleo se ha solidificado en base a un reciente paso de

microondas de AMSR2, la intensificación rápida continua parece

probable durante las próximas 24 horas mientras Beryl está sobre

SSTs cerca de 29C y dentro de una cizalladura de menos de 10 kt. No

hay una razón obvia por la que no debe convertirse en un huracán muy

poderoso antes de afectar las Islas de Barlovento. Por lo tanto, el

último pronóstico de intensidad del CNH continuará mostrando

explícitamente una intensificación rápida durante el próximo día,

haciendo que Beryl sea un huracán de Categoría 4 extremadamente

peligroso antes de que se mueva a través de las islas de Barlovento.

Una vez que Beryl ingresa al Caribe, el aumento de la cizalladura

probablemente causará que el huracán se nivele en intensidad, luego

se debilite hasta aproximadamente a mediados de semana. El

pronóstico de intensidad es similar al anterior, pero el pronóstico

del NHC se eleva el día 5 ya que más modelos están mostrando una

disminución de la cizalladura en el Caribe occidental.

El huracán se está moviendo ligeramente al norte del debido oeste,

estimado en 280/18 kt. No hay ningún cambio de trayectoria

significativo con respecto a la advertencia anterior con una extensa

cresta de nivel medio al norte de Beryl que se espera que dirija el

sistema hacia el oeste o hacia el oeste-noroeste durante varios

días. La guía del modelo permanece en estrecho acuerdo en la

trayectoria del pronóstico, y la predicción de la trayectoria del

NHC es básicamente una actualización de la anterior.

Esta es una situación muy seria en desarrollo para las Islas de

Barlovento, así que por favor escuche a los funcionarios de su

gobierno local y de gestión de emergencias para cualquier orden de

preparación y/o evacuación.

Mensajes Clave:

1. Se espera que Beryl sea un huracán de Categoría 4 extremadamente

peligroso cuando alcance las Islas de Barlovento el lunes temprano,

trayendo vientos destructivos con fuerza de huracán y marejada

ciclónica que amenaza la vida. Los Avisos de Huracán están en efecto

para gran parte de las Islas de Barlovento.

2. Se esperan fuertes lluvias e inundaciones localizadas a través de

las Islas de Barlovento esta noche y el lunes.

3. Intereses en el Caribe central y occidental deben monitorear el

progreso de este sistema. Se recuerda a los usuarios que hay una

gran incertidumbre en los días 4 y 5 y que no se enfoquen en los

detalles específicos del pronóstico de la trayectoria o de

intensidad.

POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

 12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH

 24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

 36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

 48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH

 60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH

 72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

 96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$

Pronosticador Blake

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

475 

WTCA42 KNHC 301157

TASAT2



BOLETÍN

Huracán Beryl Advertencia Intermedia Número 7A...Corregido

Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  AL022024

800 AM AST domingo 30 de junio de 2024

Vientos máximos sostenidos corregidos en Resumen

...BERYL ES AHORA UN HURACÁN DE CATEGORÍA 3 MUY PELIGROSO...

...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS Y MAREJADA DE TORMENTA QUE AMENAZAN LA VIDA EN

LAS ISLAS DE BARRIO DEL VIENTO A PARTIR DE LA MADRUGADA DEL LUNES...

RESUMEN DE 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACIÓN

----------------------------------------------

UBICACIÓN...10.6N 53.9W

ALREDEDOR 420 MI...675 KM ESE DE BARBADOS

VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...O 280 GRADOS A 21 MPH...33 KM/H

PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...968 MB...28.58 PULGADAS

VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS

--------------------

CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA:

El gobierno de Trinidad ha actualizado el Aviso de Tormenta Tropical

a un Aviso de Huracán para Tobago.

RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:

Un Aviso de Huracán está en efecto para...

* Barbados

* St. Lucia

* St. Vincent y las Islas Granadinas

* Grenada

* Tobago

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Martinique

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...

* Dominica

Un Aviso de Huracán significa que se esperan condiciones de huracán

en algún lugar dentro del área bajo aviso. Los preparativos para

proteger la vida y la propiedad deben apresurarse hasta su

finalización.

Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones

de tormenta tropical en algún lugar dentro del área bajo aviso

dentro de 36 horas.

Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical significa que son posibles

condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área de vigilancia,

generalmente dentro de 48 horas.

Intereses en otro lugar en las Antillas Menores deben monitorear de

cerca el progreso de Beryl. Pueden requerirse vigilancias y avisos

adicionales más tarde hoy.

Para información de la tormenta específica en su área, por favor

monitoree los productos emitidos por su servicio meteorológico

nacional.

DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS

----------------------

A las 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), el ojo del Huracán Beryl se localizó

cerca de la latitud 10.6 Norte, longitud 53.9 Oeste. Beryl se está

moviendo hacia el oeste cerca de 21 mph (33 km/h). Se espera un

movimiento rápido continuo hacia el oeste a oeste-noroeste durante

los próximos días. En la trayectoria del pronóstico, se espera que

el centro de Beryl se mueva a través de las Islas de Barlovento

temprano el lunes y a través del Mar Caribe sureste el lunes por la

noche y el martes.

Los datos de las aeronaves indican que los vientos máximos

sostenidos han aumentado a cerca de 115 mph (185 km/h) con ráfagas

más fuertes, haciendo de Beryl un huracán de categoría 3 muy

peligroso. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento rápido continuo durante

el próximo día más o menos, y se espera que Beryl se convierta en un

huracán de categoría 4 extremadamente peligroso antes de que alcance

las Islas de Barlovento.

Vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hacia fuera hasta 15

millas (30 km) desde el centro y vientos con fuerza de tormenta

tropical se extienden hacia fuera hasta 80 millas (130 km).

La presión central mínima basada en los datos de los Cazadores de

Huracanes de la Fuerza Aérea es de 968 mb (28.58 pulgadas).

PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA

----------------------

Mensajes clave para Beryl se pueden encontrar en el Ciclón Tropical

Discusión bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCDAT2 y el encabezado de

la OMM WTNT42 KNHC.

VIENTO: Se esperan condiciones de huracán en el área de aviso de

huracán a partir de temprano el lunes. Se espera daños por viento

devastador donde la pared del ojo de Beryl se mueve a través de

porciones de las Islas de Barlovento.

Se esperan condiciones de tormenta tropical en el área de aviso de

tormenta tropical a partir de esta noche, haciendo los preparativos

exteriores difíciles o peligrosos.

Son posibles las condiciones de tormenta tropical dentro del área de

vigilancia a partir de esta noche.

Las velocidades del viento en la cima y en los lados de barlovento

de las colinas y montañas son a menudo hasta 30 por ciento más

fuertes que los vientos cercanos a la superficie indicados en esta

advertencia, y en algunos lugares elevados podrían ser incluso

mayores.

MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: Una marejada ciclónica que amenaza la vida

elevará los niveles de agua hasta 6 a 9 pies por encima de los

niveles de marea normales en áreas de flujo terrestre cerca de donde

Beryl toca tierra en el área bajo aviso de huracán. Cerca de la

costa, la marejada estará acompañada por olas grandes y

destructivas.

LLUVIA: Se espera que el Huracán Beryl produzca totales de lluvia de

3 a 6 pulgadas a través de Barbados y las Islas de Barlovento esta

noche y el lunes.Esta lluvia puede causar inundaciones repentinas en

áreas vulnerables.

Para una representación completa del pronóstico de lluvia e

inundaciones repentinas associadas con el Huracán Beryl, por favor

vea el Gráfico de Lluvia Total de Tormenta del Servicio Nacional de

Meteorología, disponible en

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

OLEAJE: Se esperan grandes marejadas generadas por Beryl a través de

Windward y el sur de Leeward Islands durante los próximos dos días.

Se espera que estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y

corrientes marinas que amenazan la vida. Por favor, consulte los

productos de su oficina meteorológica local.

PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA

-------------

Próxima advertencia completa a las 1100 AM AST.

$$

Pronosticador Cangialosi

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un

programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión

del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es

siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Only Off-and-On Rain to Break up the Summer Heat, Watching Hurricane Beryl

FORECAST:

Sunday (High 92, Low 74): Partly to mostly cloudy, hot and humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening. 

Monday (High 89, Low 68): Sunny. Lower humidity.

Tuesday (High 91, Low 66): Mostly sunny. Lower humidity.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Wednesday (High 92, Low 70): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Independence Day (High 93, Low 72): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

Friday (High 94, Low 74): Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms.

Saturday (High 93, Low 73): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

BEACH FORECAST:

Sunday (High 90, Low 81): Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and thunderstorms possible. Hazardous rip currents are expected.

Monday (High 91, Low 78): Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Hazardous rip currents are still possible. 

Tuesday (High 89, Low 79): Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. 

Wednesday through Saturday (Highs ~90, Lows ~80): Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms. 

PRONÓSTICO:

Domingo (Máxima 92, Mínima 74): Parcialmente a mayormente nublado, caluroso y húmedo. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas, principalmente por la tarde y la noche.

Lunes (Máxima 89, Mínima 68): Soleado. Menor humedad.

Martes (Máxima 91, Mínima 66): Mayormente soleado. Menor humedad.

PERSPECTIVA EXTENDIDA:

Miércoles (Máxima 92, Mínima 70): Parcialmente nublado con un 20 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Día de la Independencia (Máxima 93, Mínima 72): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Viernes (Máxima 94, Mínima 74): Parcialmente nublado con un 20% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

Sábado (Máxima 93, Mínima 73): Parcialmente nublado con un 30% de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

PREVISIÓN DE LA PLAYA:

Domingo (Máxima 90, Mínima 81): Mayormente nublado con numerosas lluvias y tormentas eléctricas posibles. Se esperan corrientes de resaca peligrosas.

Lunes (Máxima 91, Mínima 78): Parcialmente nublado con posibles lluvias y tormentas eléctricas dispersas. Todavía son posibles corrientes de resaca peligrosas.

Martes (Máxima 89, Mínima 79): Parcialmente nublado. Es posible que se produzcan lluvias y tormentas aisladas.

De Miércoles a Sábado (Máximas ~90, Mínimas ~80): Parcialmente nublado con un 30 % de probabilidad de lluvias/tormentas eléctricas.

DISCUSSION:

It was a partly cloudy day across the Tennessee Valley with only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to break up the heat and humidity a little. The High in Cullman was 91, and the Low was 75. Jasper had a High of 95 and Low of 73. Haleyville saw a High of 93, Low of 74. Huntsville had a High 96, Low of 77. Can see the urban heat island effect there. Same goes for Nashville, where they saw a High of 96 and Low of 78. 

We basically are under a ridge of high pressure right now but can get some Gulf moisture, typical summer stuff. Our temperatures are definitely hotter than they normally are this early in the season, though we're nearly into July, so I guess they won't seem as strange. We're under a heat advisory tomorrow because of the combination of heat and humidity making it feel like about 105 degrees or so. And people can get just as sick if they are overexposed to it, same as if it really was that hot. Our humidity around here can be a doosie, as we all know. 

Tomorrow a weak frontal boundary will be pushing into the region. Our rain chances will ramp up, but I think they still cap off at 40%, which means scattered activity for the most part. Should see a High of about 92-93, Low of about 73-74.

Monday looks like a brief shot of drier air behind that front. Skies should be sunny, High in the 88-90 range, Low about 68-70. 

Then Tuesday looks like another day where rain chances are so low, not worth even worrying about. Skies should stay mostly sunny. The High should be near 90, the Low in the upper 60's because the air will be dry enough to allow good radiational cooling Monday night. 

Then on Wednesday, it looks like we'll be back to the usual standoff between high pressure and enough moisture to kick off isolated showers and thunderstorms in the region. Notice also the GFS shows Hurricane Beryl  approaching Jamaica. The weather looks typical for the time of year around here, High of 90 or so, Low of 70 or so, mix of sun and clouds, only that minimal 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. 

And even though the GFS wants to increase our rain chances slightly for Thursday, the 4th of July, this scenario is not supported by the ECMWF. So a rain chance of 20% again looks reasonable. If I decide to increase it, it'll only be to 30%. I'll only do that if it looks like the right call after looking back over the overall pattern. After taking it one day at a time like this. High should be in lower 90's regardless, Low in lower 70's. 

Basically the same thing on Friday. We can split hairs on the exact percentage of the rain chances, but overall it's just looking hot and humid, High in lower 90's, Low in lower 70's, any rain or thunderstorms staying pretty isolated. 

Then at the end of the forecast period, Saturday looks like a mix of sun and clouds, rain chances staying in the 20-30% bracket, Highs in lower 90's, Lows in lower 70's. 

And some of you may have noticed that the GFS does show Hurricane Beryl surviving into the Gulf of Mexico and moving in the direction of the Texas/Northeast Mexican coast. It is too soon to make the call with any official forecast. We have to see how things trend once it gets into the Caribbean, where it will likely encounter significant wind shear by the time it gets to about Jamaica. And then if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, all the data will have to be evaluated carefully to see where this thing is most likely going. 

I did notice the ECMWF gives it a far more southerly track. It has been the best at forecasting some hurricanes in the past, even one I think can think of more than a decade ago (Sandy). But before speculating too much on this, I'd wait until it at least gets into the Caribbean Sea, see how things are trending then. And all the computer models have to be taken into account along with past experience with tropical cyclones under different conditions. People have to fly in and take observations so the models have the best data to work with. A lot goes into forecasting hurricanes. If you ever want to learn about them thoroughly, I'd check out the book Divine Wind by Kerry Emanuel. 

Watching the Bay of Campeche where a tropical depression could still form before this broad area of low pressure moves into Mexico early in the new week. So that could bring them some heavy rains in Mexico/Central America. 

Got another area of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles Southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. It will probably form into a tropical depression by the middle of next week, but any chances for development before then are looking on the low end. 

Between those two systems, we have Hurricane Beryl, which continues to intensify under ideal conditions, unusually warm ocean temperatures and no wind shear to hamper it for now. 

And it is expected to become a major hurricane by the time it passes over the Windward Islands, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Actually several warnings or other advisories are in effect issued by the governments of several different countries that are in charge of different islands out there. I posted the official stuff from the National Hurricane Center earlier where it references all that. 

Anyone vacationing down that way needs a hurricane safety plan. 

Our rain chances around here are staying low for the most part, though the coverage of it might be more numerous at times tomorrow. In general rainfall totals should stay under a half-inch around here for the next week. 

On a personal note, I have not been well. And among other things, I found out that a girl in my family tree has been exploring transgender ideology, when she isn't even old enough to start liking boys all that much. She has had her thinking scrambled before she had a chance to let nature take its course and figure anything out for herself, along with listening to her parents. She got the loony ideas from a friend's parents and the unfiltered internet over there, it sounds like. She's really smart, and her parents definitely care, so I think she'll be okay. It was just very disheartening to hear. I no longer support the LGBT movement, because it has gone off the deep end. It never was true to say that lesbian women, gay men, bisexual people, and people who want to reverse their natural gender are all the same. And unfortunately, I now have clear evidence that the political agenda is indeed being promoted to children, who are too young to even understand what it's about. And I find that reprehensible, now that I know it is for real. 

I do still support good people who are gay, lesbian, or bi -- as individuals. And I guess that's all I've really ever done. I knew two bisexuals in my family tree (well three if you count one of those people's long-term partner); one treated me obnoxiously, the other was the exact opposite, one of the most decent (troubled, but very good person once you got to know 'em) and tolerant people you could ever hope to meet. I'm less sure about the transsexual issue. I think fully grown adults should have the right to make their own decisions, whether that's a sex-change operation or cutting the seat belts out of a car. But I believe the decision to change one's gender is a serious one. It may be necessary for some people, but I think it's a low percentage of people, and that the modern suggestions to the contrary are probably just propaganda. I definitely reject the idea that gender only exists as an ethereal concept that one can change as easily as one can change an avatar on a video game. That's horse shit. 

Let me save you some time. If you think you need a test, you’re gay.

Test Complete. pic.twitter.com/BDPy5gPISQ

— Larry Alex Taunton (@LarryTaunton) June 3, 2024

Speaking of malarkey, before I found out about a girl I care about being duped by extreme liberal agendas, I was only going to criticize the extreme conservative lunacy at the end of "pride month." This tweet from a local political commentator/theologian provides a poignant reminder as to why lesbians, gays, bisexuals, and transgender people felt the need to try to bond together in one community to begin with. 

If you're looking for homophobia and hatred, this is the real thing. 

With my perverse sense of humor, I took that damn test after seeing this guy's post a few weeks ago. And over the course of this month, I found about half a dozen similar tests, and took them all, to see if they would vary. 

One, the first one, said that I could be bisexual or just a straight guy who's curious. The others deemed me heterosexual. One even said that I was probably a straight guy but was someone who thought everyone of all orientations deserved to be treated with love and respect. And I can go along with that. I'd pretty much decided that by the time I was a sophomore in high school anyway. 

I do have more firsthand knowledge of what it's like to be gay than most "cisgendered" or "hetero-normative" people though, because when I was a freshman in high school, I decided I wasn't going to get picked on and be accused of being gay like I did in junior high. So when people asked me if I was gay, hoping to get me to deny it, so they could accuse me of it more, I began to answer "in a positive manner", as the assistant principal put it. And I went on to give details to try to gross people out. I took it so far that one guy attacked me (I'd given such details to him at lunch) and said if he ever caught me out somewhere, I would die. At that point, we got sent to the office. We were both let off with a warning, but he was told that if he did it again, he'd get a paddling. If I did my part of it again, using the obscene language and pretending to be gay, I would be put in the alternative school, probably for a long time. A friend of mine when I lived in Arab, upon hearing this story, told me, "Oooooooookay . . . now that's just plain weird, dude." And a woman I knew in Cullman later said, "Yes, that is weird, and it was also very brave!" 

I don't feel brave these days, but somebody has to talk some sense, even if it's just on the internet once in a while. It is almost a crime to use common sense anymore. I usually feel expected to choose the good ole' Southern version of lunacy, unless I talk to a feminist I know from California or another one in Missouri. (At least one of them definitely considers me homophobic, because she refuses to discuss things outside of her comfortable bubble. People usually don't talk to me long enough to understand what I really think . . . it's more fun to jump on one or two points and go on a tirade.) And I don't have much use for any of it when I see the real-world consequences. 

I did have enough sense to quit my sociological experiment after a guy threatened to kill me over it. Even if the principal hadn't been so outraged. 

Someone in my family had gone to the same high school about 20 years before and told me about how badly one guy got treated because everyone thought he was gay. She said she thought he did actually turn out to be gay but that he still didn't deserve to be treated that badly. And I have to say, there was still some of that 20 years later. One time I put my books by a seat at lunch, and then after I got my food, found they had been thrown against the wall. None of the people sitting where I'd planned to even knew me. They'd just heard about me. I did bring it on myself. It was worth finding out. 

Not everybody was that way though. One guy defended me one day, even though he was laughing, by saying to another guy in the bathroom, "So what if he is, man? Hey, that's his American right." Another guy shrugged it off at lunch one day and said, "I've got a gay cousin. I mean, he's a cool guy and everything, he's just . . . gay." I'm pretty sure that guy knew all along that I was messing with people's heads. He still made a point of letting me know that he didn't care if I really was gay, that he was cool with his cousin. 

And I won't bore you with stories about so many people I knew after high school who really were that way. For one thing, they were not all saints that deserve to put on any sort of pedestal. They were a mixed bag, like any other people. I mainly mention the story above because it still strikes me as funny. 

It is not always such a laughing matter for people who really do have certain sexual proclivities. There is no on/off switch. They don't ever get the relief of telling people it was all a gag. 

And I certainly wasn't laughing when I was scrolling for storm reports a while back and saw where a trans woman by the name of Darri Moore was found dead along the Mississippi River. I'm not a detective, but that sure didn't sound like an accidental drowning to me. Another case from the same area, a murder in 2015 (of Mercedes Williamson), really highlights the hypocrisy involved in the persecution of queer people. Most people are not as "straight" as they pretend to be. I can think of very few people I've known, who shared details of their intimate lives with me, who did not have some kind of sexual deviance or quirk. I'd rather people be honest about it than try to cover it up. I think Jim Nabors handled that about as well as anyone I've ever heard of. And if you look at how many violent crimes have been committed against people in the queer community this year alone, only in the United States, it is shameful. A lot of it has been documented around the world for many years. I was dismayed when I went looking into it. I really thought most people had moved past this way of thinking by now. After all, even Donald Trump sounds like he keeps the jokes about it lighthearted, telling Dave Rubin: "You're the kind of guy, you could have any beautiful woman in the world ya' want! But ya' don't want 'em!"

Anybody who watched that foolishness between him and Joe Biden the other night has a fresh reminder that a lot of his humor is the more scathing, sarcastic kind. He kept it lighthearted with Dave. When it comes to people's sexual preferences, he seems to believe in "live and let live", even if a lot of his fan base may not. 

At first, I was going to criticize the whole idea of "pride month," because after all, we don't have "left-handed pride month." And I always liked how when James Randi, the great magician who did so much to expose hustlers claiming supernatural powers, told the public that he was gay, he also said it was no more important a detail of his life than that he was left-handed. 

And if people are just born that way, then that's nothing to be proud of. Pride should be reserved for things people accomplish, not things they have no choice about. 

There isn't even a pride month for redheads . . . not that I've heard about. And some people give them a hard time. I guess at least they can dye their hair if they need to. 

But when is the last time you heard of someone getting murdered, or even beaten up, for being left-handed? What people should be proud of is managing to have some kind of a life in spite of the bigots who do hate them for being themselves. In that sense, I do support pride month, even though I don't support the silly acronym and everything its more extreme advocates stand for. 

The reason that tweet I referenced above bothered me so much is that most of the time, conservative Christians (which this guy is . . . you can check out his podcast here) say that homosexuality is a choice, and that people are condemned for making the wrong choice. 

It is usually the liberal Humanists who say no, sexual orientation is inherent, you're born whichever way you are. And they tend to see it as a broad spectrum instead of a strict either/or. 

That tweet represented the worst of both worlds IMHO. This guy sounded like he was saying that it's something people can't help, like even if they have to stop and question whether they could be that way, then they're inherently "gay", which translates to "not okay" . . . but then they should still be condemned for this thing they can't help. 

And I can't get on board with that at all. 

I have thought about that post off and on ever since I saw it at the beginning of this month. And how I would feel if I was a teenager again, trying to figure things out, reading such things, and didn't happen to have the crazy sense of humor that even all these years later, motivates me to take half a dozen tests like that, and then tell people about it. I once heard of a black basketball coach who stopped on the way to a game because he saw the Ku Klux Klan taking up donations. (This happened back in the 1970's.) He rolled down the window and put a dollar in their bucket before taking the girls on to the game. That's the kind of person I've always admired. 

Back in late 2016, I saw a video from a musician who said, with tears in his eyes, that if the conservatives thought the LGBT people were scary before, just wait until they saw how they were going to fight back in the next several years . . . and that guy must have meant it. Because when I went to see if he had any new music recently, his sexual identity had so much "word salad" in it that I didn't bother trying to commit it to memory. But I think most of us can see that the extremes feed each other. Most of what I hear is how insane these people have become, so that proves how wrong they were all along. Meanwhile, every time somebody gets beaten up, or murdered, or just treated unjustly by their family for admitting to being queer in some way, these people feel even more alienated and like digging in their heels, to do whatever they have to, to prove that they are people too. And deserve to be treated with the same basic respect as the "normal" people. 

It could be an old episode of the Twilight Zone (or maybe a newer show like Black Mirror) sometimes, it has become so ridiculous. Is basic respect despite differences of opinion and lifestyle really so impossible?

Surely it's more possible than keeping up with how many letters there are in the various acronyms used to describe the queer community. The longest one I felt like memorizing was LGBTQIA+. And that one didn't even make sense to me, because the "A" for "Asexual" was basically the exact opposite of all the others. If anything underlines the fact that these people feel persecuted, that sure as hell does. It's more like all the people who got beaten up in school decided to join together in an alphabet soup club just to survive or something. 

If some of you have a comfort zone to retreat to, just believing whatever your parents taught you, then maybe I should envy you. I find these issues very uncomfortable these days. One of my parents remarried to someone of the same sex but still used the Holy Bible to criticize the sexual morals of others. (That was the first time I was accused of being a homophobe instead of being accused of being a homosexual. Because I called out how stupid that was. What can I say . . . life can be full of ironies?) And as far as religion goes, my home was an ideological war zone even before that. 

I can't remember what book or book series this was from, but in the third grade, Ms. Ferguson read us some old book where a character said, "I didn't know (so-and-so) believed in the Bible, but I reckon it might do him a heap o' good a' readin' it! I think thar was somethin' in 'ere about lovin' ye' neighbor . . ."

And of course, there is. I think that's about as much commentary as there needs to be about the Ten Commandments too. 

Putting people down for being homosexual or bisexual is not the way to do it. And of course, neither is encouraging children or young adults to make impulsive decisions about trying to change the gender they were born with. 

On July 4th, a lot of people will be singing along that they are proud to be Americans. But that too is an accident of birth. Once again, pride only makes sense if you have done something to be proud of. If you believe that all people deserve life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, then I believe you've got a right to celebrate the healthy kind of pride, if that's the way you live from day to day. And like my friend Paul told me in high school, I don't care whether or not you're gay. 

I'm coming out of the closet as the kind of American who is more interested in the really old-fashioned values of circa 1776 instead of the values of Joseph McCarthy.