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The new outlook has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center, and here is how it is shaking down for Tuesday around here.
Some of us are under the basic Level 2/5 risk for severe weather, and some of us are in the enhanced 3/5 risk for severe weather.
Notice that in the enhanced risk area, there is a 30% chance of damaging thunderstorm winds, where the rest of us only have the basic 15% chance of that.
We basically all have the same 15% risk for severe hail, that means quarter-sized or larger.
And we have a 2% tornado risk that roughly coincides with the basic risk area, a 5% tornado risk that coincides roughly with the enhanced threat areas. If you pay close attention to the maps above, you can see that places like Nashville up into much of Kentucky actually have a higher tornado threat, a 10% chance of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of a given point.
So to boil it down, we all have a risk for severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes across the region Tuesday. Depending on the timing, some of it could last into the evening or night. As of right now it is looking more likely to be a daytime event, or at least start while it is still daylight.
The better chance of seeing wind damage from thunderstorms or seeing isolated tornadoes is in that enhanced level 3 out of 5 risk area in orange. But the rest of us still have some risk of that in the basic level 2 out of 5 risk area in yellow. All of us need to pay attention to this and have a safety plan in place ahead of time. But in that enhanced zone, you need to pay a little extra attention.
This is the only day in this forecast period we are expecting rain or storms. But I really encourage everyone to respect this severe weather potential. It could get somewhat organized. And really all it takes is one damaging storm or tornado to cause us some real problems, if people are not prepared for it. So please be aware, have a safety plan, and spread the word.
SPC AC 010558
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will
be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to
be greatest from middle Tennessee north-northeastward into central
and northern Kentucky.
...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States/Central
Appalachians...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to
upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances
eastward toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. By afternoon, a
north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast
to be in place from the northern Gulf Coast States to central
Kentucky, where surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s
F. As instability increases along this corridor, numerous
thunderstorms will likely develop, with a linear MCS organizing and
moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the
afternoon and evening. This large MCS should reach the central
Appalachians by early to mid evening.
A 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will likely move northeastward into
the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. This jet will create strong
deep-layer shear across most of the region. Forecast soundings by
21Z from middle Tennessee to central Kentucky have 0-6 km shear in
the 70 to 80 knot range. The wind shear and strong large-scale
ascent, associated with the mid-level jet, will be favorable for the
development of a squall line Tuesday afternoon. This linear MCS will
likely have numerous embedded severe storms with the greatest threat
being wind damage. The wind-damage threat is expected to maximize
during the late afternoon and early evening. QLCS tornadic
circulations will be possible along some parts of the line,
especially near bowing segments. An isolated large hail threat is
also expected in areas where the squall line interacts with locally
stronger instability, and with isolated rotating cells that develop
ahead of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease during
the mid to late evening as the line moves through the central
Appalachians.
...Central Gulf Coast States...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper
60s F ahead of the front, where some models suggest that MLCAPE will
peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorm development appears likely to take place ahead of the
front early in the day, with an organized line segment or cluster
moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast States during the
afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will be in place, and low-level
lapse rates will steepen during the late morning and early
afternoon. The environment will likely support a wind-damage and
isolated large-hail threat. An isolated tornado threat will also be
possible, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states near the
southern edge of the low-level jet. Large-scale ascent and
deep-layer shear are forecast to be somewhat weaker across the
central and southern Gulf Coast states, which should result in a
more isolated severe threat with southward extent.
...Mid-Atlantic...
An anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Eastern Seaboard
on Tuesday. At the surface, a relatively cold airmass is forecast
across much of the Mid-Atlantic due to cold air damming. Above the
cold surface air, elevated instability is forecast to increase
during the evening, as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves
through the central Appalachians. Thunderstorms that form in the
unstable air aloft, may have a potential for marginally severe hail
during the evening into the early overnight period.
..Broyles.. 04/01/2024
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