232
WTNT33 KNHC 071458
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023
...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...LARGE SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THIS WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 50.0W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Lee.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 50.0 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A slower motion toward the
west-northwest is forecast over the weekend. On the forecast track,
the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward islands
during the next few days.
Maximum sustained have quickly increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected today and
tonight. Lee will likely become a major hurricane later today. Lee
is forecast to remain a very strong major hurricane through the
weekend
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
571
WTCA43 TJSJ 071509
TCPSP3
BOLETÍN
Huracán Lee Advertencia Número 9
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST jueves 07 de septiembre de 2023
...LEE FORTALECIÉNDOSE RÁPIDAMENTE...
...ES PROBABLE QUE MAREJADAS GRANDES ALCANZEN LAS ANTILLAS MENORES,
LAS ISLAS VÍRGENES Y PUERTO RICO ESTE FIN DE SEMANA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...16.4N 50.0O
ALREDEDOR DE 870 MI...1405 KM E DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 295 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...983 MB...29.03 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
Los intereses en las Islas de Sotavento del norte deben monitorear
el progreso de Lee.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), el centro del Huracán Lee estaba
localizado cerca de la latitud 16.4 Norte, longitud 50.0 Oeste. Lee
se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a cerca de 15 mph (24
km/h), y se espera que este movimiento continúe hasta el viernes. Se
pronostica un movimiento más lento hacia el oeste-noroeste durante
el fin de semana. En la trayectoria pronosticada, el centro de Lee
se moverá al norte de las islas de Sotavento del norte durante los
próximos días.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos han aumentado rápidamente a cerca de
105 mph (165 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Se espera una
intensificación rápida hoy y esta noche. Es probable que Lee se
convierta en un huracán intenso más tarde hoy. Se pronostica que
Lee permanezca como un huracán intenso muy fuerte hasta el fin de
semana.
Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hasta 25 millas (35
km) desde centro y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se
extienden hasta 90 millas (150 km).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para Lee se pueden encontrar en la Discusión de
Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT3 de AWIPS y encabezado
WTNT43 KNHC y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Lee alcancen
sectores de las Antillas Menores el viernes, y alcancen las Islas
Vírgenes Británicas y de los Estados Unidos, Puerto Rico, La
Española, las Bahamas y Bermuda este fin de semana. Es probable que
estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y corrientes marinas
que amenacen la vida. Favor de consultar los productos de su oficina
local de meteorología.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 500 PM AST.
$$
Pronosticador D. Zelinsky
000
WTNT43 KNHC 071459
TCDAT3
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023
Lee is rapidly intensifying. Early this morning, a well-defined
low-to mid-level eye was observed in microwave imagery, a signal
that is often a precursor rapid intensification (RI). Since then,
Lee has developed an eye in visible and infrared imagery, with
subjective Dvorak Data-T estimates quickly increasing to as high as
5.5 during the past hour or so. Satellite classifications supported
an intensity of around 80 kt at 1200 UTC, but given the significant
improvement in Lee's appearance since then, the advisory intensity
is set at 90 kt.
The track guidance remains in very good agreement on the forecast
for Lee through the weekend and confidence in the track forecast is
high. Lee should continue west-northwestward, gradually slowing its
forward speed, moving along the southern periphery of a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. Confidence continues to increase
that Lee will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, though
swells associated with Lee will affect the islands starting
tomorrow. By the end of the forecast, the uncertainty is a little
higher, with the hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF) generally being
farther south than the global models. Very small changes were made
to the NHC track forecast, which is between the HCCA and simple
consensus aids.
As stated above, RI is occuring, and will likely continue today. The
question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how
strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. Many of the
models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond
rates normally seen with model forecasts. Both HAFS models forecast
Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings
the hurricane above the category 5 threshold. The NHC intensity
forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually
within the guidance envelope. It should be stressed that internal
dynamics (eyewall replacement cycles) will become a factor with the
maximum strength of Lee as it becomes a major hurricane. This
is almost certain to lead to fluctuations in intensity that are
beyond our ability to forecast at these lead times. Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and
overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about
Lee's intensity during the coming days.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane later today, with
its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. The
potential for tropical storm conditions to occur in the islands is
decreasing, but residents there should continue to monitor updates
on Lee.
2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.1N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 18.2N 54.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 56.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 61.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 22.6N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.6N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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