This extremely powerful hurricane has winds of 165 miles per hour. It looks like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and other islands near there will "only" get swells and very dangerous rip currents from it, the track is far enough North. But folks on the East Coast of the United States will want to watch its progress to be on the safe side. Most model guidance has wanted to move it North and keep it East of the mainland, but some guidance also shows it slowing down in the Atlantic as it gets close to land. And just from past experience, I think it would be a mistake to get overconfident in its exact track this far in advance. Let's just keep an eye on it and see what it does, and where the models trend as it moves along. For now the news is good for those islands not taking a direct hit. We'll see if the luck holds for all the land this thing may come close to later.
450
WTNT33 KNHC 080838
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
...POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LEE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...
...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 53.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 53.5 West. Lee is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through early next week with a significant
decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lee is expected
to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early
next week.
Maximum sustained winds based on data from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased to near 165 mph (270
km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast today. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next
few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through
early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
SURF: Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles later today, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and
rip currents are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast
beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
000
WTCA43 TJSJ 080931
TCPSP3
BOLETÍN
Huracán Lee Advertencia Número 12
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL132023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
500 AM AST viernes 8 de septiembre de 2023
...SE ESPERA QUE EL PODEROSO CATEGORÍA 5 LEE MANTENGA SU
INTENSIDAD...
...SE ESPERA QUE CONDICIONES DE PLAYA PELIGROSAS SE DESARROLLEN
ALREDEDOR DEL OESTE DEL ATLÁNTICO HASTA PRINCIPIOS DE LA PRÓXIMA
SEMANA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...17.8N 53.5O
ALREDEDOR DE 630 MI...1015 KM E DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...ONO O 295 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...926 MB...27.35 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
No hay vigilancias ni avisos costeros en efecto.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), el centro del Huracán Lee estaba
localizado cerca de la latitud 17.8 norte, longitud 53.5 oeste. Lee
se está moviendo hacia el oeste-noroeste a cerca de 14 mph (22 km/h)
y se espera que este movimiento continúe hasta principios de la
próxima semana con una disminución significativa en la velocidad de
traslación. En la trayectoria pronosticada, se espera que Lee pase
bien al norte de las Islas de Sotavento del norte, las Islas
Vírgenes y Puerto Rico durante el fin de semana y hasta principios
de la próxima semana.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos basados en los datos del avión
Cazahuracanes de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea han aumentado a cerca
de 165 mph (270 km/h) con ráfagas más fuertes. Lee es un huracán
de categoría 5 en la Escala de Vientos de Huracanes de
Saffir-Simpson. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento adicional hoy.
Las fluctuaciones en la intensidad son probables durante los
próximos días, pero se espera que Lee permanezca como un huracán
intenso hasta principios de la próxima semana.
Los vientos con fuerza de huracán se extienden hasta 45 millas (75
km) del centro, y los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical
extienden hasta 140 millas (220 km).
La presión central mínima estimada es de 926 mb (27.35 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para Lee se pueden encontrar en la Discusión de
Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado MIATCDAT3 de AWIPS y encabezado
WTNT43 KNHC de OMM y en la web en hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
OLEAJE: Se espera que las marejadas generadas por Lee alcancen
sectores de las Antillas Menores más tarde hoy, y alcancen las Islas
Vírgenes Británicas y Estadounidenses, Puerto Rico, La Española, las
Islas Turcas y Caicos, las Bahamas y Bermuda este fin de semana. Es
probable que estas marejadas causen condiciones de oleaje y
corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida. Se espera que las olas
rompientes y las corrientes marinas peligrosas comiencen a lo largo
de la mayor parte de la Costa Este de los Estados Unidos comenzando
el domingo. Favor de consultar los productos de su oficina local de
meteorología.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia completa a las 1100 AM AST.
$$
Pronosticador Cangialosi
788
WTNT43 KNHC 080839
TCDAT3
Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023
Lee remains an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. Satellite
images indicate that Lee has a symmetric inner core with a 10 n mi
circular and clear eye and no indications of concentric eyewalls
forming yet. Although the hurricane is incredibly powerful, its
wind field is not particularly large with its tropical-storm-force
winds extending roughly 100 n mi from the center. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters investigated Lee earlier this morning and found
that the pressure has fallen to about 926 mb, based on dropsonde
data. In addition, the maximum 700-mb flight-level wind reported
was 153 kt and maximum surface SFMR wind was 158 kt, but this
estimate could be inflated. Blending these measurements, the
initial wind speed is nudged upward to 145 kt. Both the NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunters will further investigate Lee in a couple
of hours.
Since Lee is expected to remain in favorable atmospheric conditions
while moving over even warmer waters during the next couple of days,
it seems likely that the hurricane will at least maintain its
intensity or become a little stronger during that time. The
dominant factor for Lee's short term intensity will be internal
dynamics, like eyewall replacement cycles. These conditions will
often cause fluctuations in the hurricane's strength, which are
challenging to forecast. There likely will be some weakening beyond
a few days when Lee moves over somewhat cooler waters and into an
environment of slightly higher shear. Regardless of the details,
Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
several days.
The major hurricane has been on a steady west-northwest path during
the past couple of days as it has been steered by the flow on the
south side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A
continued west-northwest motion is expected, but at a progressively
slower pace during the forecast period as the ridge to the north of
the system weakens. The models are in fairly good agreement, and
little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.
Lee is expected to increase in size and become more symmetric over
the weekend and early next week as the hurricane slows down. Recent
wave altimeter data showed peak significant wave heights between 45
and 50 feet near the center. Dangerously high seas are expected to
continue near the core of the hurricane, and large swells will
spread well away from the system through the forecast period.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lee is a dangerous category 5 hurricane, and further
strengthening is possible. Lee's core is expected to move well
north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.
2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in
the northern Leeward Islands beginning later today. These
conditions will spread westward and northward, affecting Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Bermuda
through the weekend.
3. It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee
might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda
late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to
slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless,
dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S.
East Coast beginning Sunday. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's
forecast during the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 17.8N 53.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.1W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 23.3N 65.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 24.4N 67.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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