Confidence is growing that this will be a hurricane by the time it hits Florida, probably the middle of this coming week. And that's even without any aircraft data yet.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 270243
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
A FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.4 West. The
depression is drifting toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and
is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday.
A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected on
Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a
hurricane by Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches,
across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western
Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to
flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the west coast
of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Southeast by mid to late
next week.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday and
western Cuba Sunday night or Monday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth Sunday
night or Monday.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
389
WTCA45 TJSJ 270249
TCPSP5
BOLETÍN
Depresión Tropical Diez Advertencia Número 2
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL AL102023
Traducción por el SNM San Juan PR
1000 PM CDT sábado 26 de agosto de 2023
...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESIÓN SE CONVIERTA EN UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL
EL DOMINGO...
...PROBABLEMENTE SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACÁN SOBRE EL
ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MÉXICO EN UNOS POCOS DÍAS...
RESUMEN DE LA 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMACIÓN
-----------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACIÓN...21.1N 86.4O
ALREDEDOR DE 55 MI...85 KM NE DE COZUMEL MÉXICO
VIENTOS MÁXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...SO O 230 GRADOS A 2 MPH...4 KM/H
PRESIÓN CENTRAL MÍNIMA...1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS EN ESTA ADVERTENCIA:
El gobierno de Cuba ha actualizado la Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical
para Pinar del Río a un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO:
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Península de Yucatán desde Tulum hasta Río Lagartos, incluyendo
Cozumel
* Pinar del Río Cuba
Una Vigilancia de Tormenta Tropical está en efecto para...
* Isla de la Juventud Cuba
Un Aviso de Tormenta Tropical significa que se esperan condiciones
de tormenta tropical en el área bajo aviso dentro de las próximas 36
horas.
Un aviso de tormenta tropical significa que se esperan condiciones
de tormenta tropical dentro del área bajo aviso, generalmente dentro
de 48 horas.
Los intereses en Florida deben monitorear el progreso de este
sistema.
Para información de tormenta específica en su área, favor de
monitorear los productos emitidos por su servicio nacional de
meteorología.
DISCUSIÓN Y PERSPECTIVAS
----------------------
A las 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), el centro de la Depresión Tropical
Diez estaba localizado cerca de la latitud 21.1 Norte, longitud 86.4
Oeste. La depresión se mueve hacia el suroeste a cerca de 2
mph (4 km/h) y es probable que serpentee cerca del Canal de Yucatán
hasta temprano el lunes. Se espera un movimiento más rápido hacia
el norte o norte-noreste el lunes, llevando el sistema sobre el este
del Golfo de México.
Los vientos máximos sostenidos están cerca de 35 mph (55 km/h) con
ráfagas más fuertes. Se pronostica un fortalecimiento adicional
durante los próximos días. Se espera que la depresión se convierta
en una tormenta tropical el domingo y en un huracán el martes.
La presión central mínima estimada es de 1005 mb (29.68 pulgadas).
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
----------------------
Los mensajes clave para la Depresión Tropical Diez se pueden
encontrar en la Discusión de Ciclón Tropical bajo el encabezado
MIATCDAT5 de AWIPS y encabezado WTNT45 KNHC.
LLUVIA: Se espera que la Depresión Tropical Diez produzca cantidades
de lluvia de 3 a 6 pulgadas, con cantidades aisladas más altas de 10
pulgadas, en sectores del este de la Península de Yucatán. En el
oeste de Cuba, se esperan cantidades de lluvia de 4 a 8 pulgadas,
con cantidades máximas aisladas de 12 pulgadas. Esta lluvia puede
conducir a inundaciones repentinas e urbanas, y deslizamientos de
tierra en el oeste de Cuba.
También es probable que la lluvia fuerte impacte sectores de la
costa oeste de Florida, el Panhandle de Florida y el sureste a
mediados o tarde la próxima semana.
VIENTO: Se espera que las condiciones de tormenta tropical comiencen
sobre sectores del área bajo aviso sobre la Península de Yucatán el
domingo y el oeste de Cuba el domingo en la noche o el lunes. Las
condiciones de tormenta tropical son posibles dentro del área bajo
vigilancia en la Isla de la Juventud el domingo en la noche o el
lunes.
MAREJADA CICLÓNICA: Se esperan inundaciones costeras menores dentro
del área de Aviso de Tormenta Tropical sobre la Península de Yucatán
en áreas de vientos costeros.
PRÓXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------
Próxima advertencia intermedia a las 100 AM CDT.
Próxima advertencia completa a las 400 AM CDT.
$$
Pronosticador Berg
000
WTNT25 KNHC 270243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.4W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.4W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 86.3W
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 86.4W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
FONT15 KNHC 270243
PWSAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22)
OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 11(35)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 8(37)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 2(38)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 2(37)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 1(23)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 1(20) X(20)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26) X(26)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 5(40) 1(41)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 11(44) X(44)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 23(52) X(52)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 23(49) 1(50)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 19(56) 1(57)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) X(24)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 20(39) 1(40)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 8(27) 1(28)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
COZUMEL MX 34 25 15(40) 5(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
COZUMEL MX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 8( 9) 28(37) 19(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT45 KNHC 270244
TCDAT5
Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
Images from the Mexico meteorological service's radar in Cancun show
that the depression has a small but well-defined circulation with
spiral banding extending no more than about 60 n mi from the center.
This feature is embedded within a larger circulation with scattered
deep convection covering the northwestern Caribbean Sea, extreme
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and adjacent land areas. The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest subjective Dvorak
estimate from TAFB and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS.
The depression appears to be drifting toward the southwest with an
initial motion of 230/2 kt, with low- to mid-level ridging located
to its north and northwest. The system is expected to continue
meandering over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next 24-36
hours. After that time, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico
and strengthening ridging over the western Atlantic is expected to
begin lifting the system toward the north and north-northeast over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico toward Florida, and then near the
southeastern coast of the U.S. The updated NHC track forecast lies
on top of or very near the previous prediction and closely follows
the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids.
Assuming the depression's center does not move over the Yucatan
Peninsula, very warm waters and low to moderate vertical shear
should support gradual strengthening during the next few days. The
NHC intensity prediction is a little below the consensus aids during
the first 36 hours of the forecast but then converges with those
aids thereafter, showing the system reaching hurricane strength by
60 hours. The system is expected to remain a hurricane, and
potentially continue strengthening, up until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida on Wednesday. Users are reminded to continue
monitoring forecasts for any changes to the system's expected
intensity as it approaches Florida. Land interaction and increasing
shear should lead to fast weakening after the system moves over
land, but it could still produce tropical-storm-force winds near and
offshore the southeastern coast of the U.S. even if the center is
inland.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Berg
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